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Lukashenko and Putin's satellites: why some are keeping Russia at a distance - and some are even countering it

2022-06-29T12:38:49.806Z


Lukashenko and Putin's satellites: why some are keeping Russia at a distance - and some are even countering it Created: 06/29/2022, 14:23 By: Felix Durach Some of Russia's allies are taking a two-pronged approach in the Ukraine war. Even direct criticism of President Putin no longer seems taboo for some. MOSCOW – More than four months after the Russian invasion started the Ukraine war, Preside


Lukashenko and Putin's satellites: why some are keeping Russia at a distance - and some are even countering it

Created: 06/29/2022, 14:23

By: Felix Durach

Some of Russia's allies are taking a two-pronged approach in the Ukraine war.

Even direct criticism of President Putin no longer seems taboo for some.

MOSCOW – More than four months after the Russian invasion started the Ukraine war, President Vladimir Putin is going abroad again for the first time.

On Tuesday, Putin traveled to the ex-Soviet republic of Tajikistan before continuing to Turkmenistan on Wednesday.

There was a summit with the heads of government of the countries bordering the Caspian Sea.

Even if most summit participants support Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the Russian president could also encounter critical voices there.

In any case, the meeting with former Soviet states highlights the balancing act that many of Moscow's former satellite republics are walking: between East and West, fear of Russia's aggression and sanctions from economically strong partners.

Kazakhstan is on a confrontational course with Putin: Luhansk and Donetsk are not recognized

An example is Kazakhstan.

The country's authoritarian president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, caused a stir a few days ago with critical statements that are rarely heard outside of Western countries.

The scenes took place at the economic forum in St. Petersburg, where Tokayev took part in a panel discussion with Putin.

Presenter Margarita Simonyan of the Kremlin-funded TV channel RT asked the Kazakh president if he agreed with Moscow's views on the "special operation" in Ukraine.

Surprisingly, Tokayev countered.

If the right of states to secede independently were recognized internationally, this would lead to chaos, the Kazakh President said: "Therefore we will not recognize Taiwan, Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The same principles are therefore applied to the quasi-states, which in our view are Luhansk and Donetsk.”

Unusual criticism of Putin: Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev does not want to recognize the self-proclaimed People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk.

© Kazakh Presidential Website/dpa

Tightrope act in the Ukraine war: What goals is Kazakhstan's President Tokayev pursuing?

Strong words from a Russian ally.

By recognizing the self-proclaimed People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia launched the war against Ukraine in February.

Now, of all people, Kazakhstan's president directly contradicted Putin's point of view – in his hometown of St. Petersburg.

Public criticism of the Putin regime caused a stir in the Kremlin.

Konstantin Zatulin, a member of the Russian Duma, saw the statements as a provocation and a challenge to the Russian President.

Speaking to Radio Moskva, Zatulin Putin even suggested another invasion of northern Kazakhstan as a response.

"There are many cities with a predominantly Russian population that have little to do with what is called Kazakhstan," says Zatulin.

The clear reaction underlines the explosiveness of the direct confrontation with Vladimir Putin.

But what are the goals of the Kazakh head of state with his statements?

Some observers see criticism of Putin's reasons for war as a bold statement that could underscore Russia's gradual decline as the leading force among the former USSR states.

Ukraine war: experts sure - Russian harshness has "scared traditional allies"

Russia's harshness in the Ukraine war could also lead to Russia's allies continuing to distance themselves.

"The Russian Federation's animal violence on Ukrainian soil has frightened even Russia's traditional allies," Ukrainian analyst Aleksey Kushch told

Al Jazeera

.

Other observers see Moscow's public rejection of its positions as an attempt to circumvent sanctions.

"There are a large number of Russians who have opened offices in Kazakhstan and channel their funds through them," an anonymous businessman tells

Al Jazeera

.

Tokayev and Putin could have deliberately planned their public dissent.

also read

NATO counters Putin's nuclear threat: Agreed in Elmau, nervous in the Kremlin

Russia now controls Luhansk almost completely - but US experts now see a disadvantage for Putin

Belarus: Lukashenko with a political balancing act – no direct involvement in the Ukraine war

A similar balancing act in Russian relations can currently be observed in Belarus.

Ruler Alexander Lukashenko has always been considered one of Putin's closest allies.

A few weeks ago he even had to deny a possible merger with the big neighbor.

Military cooperation reached a new level with an announcement in the past few days.

Russia is to equip Belarus with the Iksander-M missile system with a range of up to 500 kilometers.

This could "take ballistic missiles as well as cruise missiles - both conventional and nuclear," Putin said in response to the announcement.

More than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, a hint of the arms race in Europe.

But even if Lukashenko continues to tie his country closely to Russia through the deliveries, “Europe’s last dictator” is attempting a political balancing act with his position on the Ukraine war.

Belarus describes itself as neutral in the military conflict and has acted in the past, at least externally, as a mediator between the warring parties.

In reality, however, Belarus' role is different.

This became clear right at the beginning of the war, when Russian troops also advanced across the border from Belarus towards the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Despite alleged neutrality: Belarus was “actively involved in the war from day one”.

“Belarus has been actively involved in the war against Ukraine from day one.

De facto, this is not a Belarusian-Ukrainian war, but Russia is fighting alongside Belarus against Ukraine,” András Rácz from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

told Tagesspiegel

.

The decisive point here is that Belarus has not yet actively participated in the Ukraine war with its own troops.

However, Minsk supports the Russian troops in virtually every other way.

So Lukashenko is on two tracks.

On the one hand he presents himself as a loyal ally of Moscow, on the other hand he does not want his country to participate in the destructive war with its own resources.

Belarus' geopolitical position as a buffer between Russia and the NATO states may enable Lukashenko to resist Moscow's pressure to actively participate in the war.

Pressure from their own population - Lukashenko has to tactic in the Ukraine war

The reasons for the position sometimes lie in the mood of the Belarusian population.

Even if Lukashenko continues to rule his country with an iron fist, critical voices have become louder since his re-election in 2020.

The sixth re-election of the president is internationally regarded as rigged and led to considerable protests, which Lukashenko had violently put down.

Close allies: Vladimir Putin (l), President of Russia, and Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, shake hands at a meeting.

© Mikhail Metzel/dpa

In addition, large parts of the population could have no interest in a war against their own neighbors.

Especially in the border area between Belarus and Ukraine, many residents feel connected through friendships, economic relationships or cultural similarities across national borders.

Active participation in the war by Belarus could thus further strengthen the already tense attitude of the population.

Problems in the country's own military: observers consider Belarus' entry into the war "unlikely"

Added to this are the massive problems in the Belarusian military, which are currently making direct participation in the war more difficult.

In a situation assessment, military experts from the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) classify a direct involvement of Minsk in the war in Ukraine as "unlikely".

Lukashenko's troops lack equipment and experience.

A grievance that those in power are also aware of.

So it remains to be seen how the further course of the war will change the positions of Russia's allies.

However, the role of Kazakhstan could already indicate a slight change.

(fd)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-06-29

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