For several weeks, the seven parliamentarians of the commission of inquiry into the invasion of the capitol have been working on the avalanche of testimonies collected.
Lawyers, former collaborators, White House staff members and even some members of Donald Trump's family delivered their version of January 6, 2021.
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But, concretely, even if it manages to collect a body of overwhelming evidence, this commission of inquiry remains a political body, not a legal one.
“
The commission of inquiry mainly does investigative and educational work.
Only the Ministry of Justice has the power to prosecute and indict Donald Trump
,” explains Anne Deysine, jurist and Americanist.
“
For the moment, he has only prosecuted those who stormed the Capitol and it is possible that the latest testimonies will make it possible to indict
Rudy Giuliani
, Donald Trump's lawyer
”, details the specialist.
What about Donald Trump, whose involvement in this insurrectionary movement is pointed out by certain witnesses?
Until then, one charge in particular was expected against the former president, that of obstruction of parliamentary procedure.
“This is the most anticipated charge, because it is the one on which we have the most elements, explains
Yann Philippe, specialist in the constitution and American law
.
We know in particular that he exerted pressure on his vice-president Mike Pence”.
"A normal person would already be in prison"
But the statements of the former collaborator of the White House, Cassidy Hutchinson, upset the investigation.
According to her, Donald Trump knew that his supporters were armed when he ordered them to march on the capitol on January 6, 2021. He also tried to get behind the wheel of a limousine to find those who were marching towards Congress.
“
This completely changes the perspective of the investigation,
analyzes Yann Philippe.
Donald Trump will no longer be able to defend himself by explaining that he had no knowledge of the violence to come
.
These facts could thus constitute incitement to riot.
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However, the legal proceedings, led by the Minister of Justice Merrick Garland, are discreet or even silent.
“
This caution surprises everyone: given the amount of evidence, an average person would already be in prison,
believes Jean-Eric Branaa, specialist in the constitution and American law.
But
Donald Trump is not someone like the others.
Prosecuting a former President of the United States would have symbolic and political consequences for the entire nation: it is a matter of national interest
”.
Until a few years ago, in 1974, when the Watergate scandal put Republican Richard Nixon's presidency in the hot seat, testimony at the commission of inquiry was respected and the rule of law well understood.
But today, "
the country is damaged by the memory of January 6 and the Minister of Justice knows that by sanctioning Donald Trump, he will trigger violence
", continues the specialist according to whom, if Merrick Garland launches legal proceedings, "
everyone must be convinced of his guilt
”.
Polls so far prove the opposite: on a national scale, a study published on June 30 by AP and NORC estimates that only 48% of Americans want criminal proceedings against Donald Trump.
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Consequence: "
the Ministry of Justice is so afraid of making Donald Trump a martyr by galvanizing his camp that he delays the investigation, is very discreet
", analyzes Nicole Bacharan, historian, political scientist and specialist in the United States.
What to let the president pass through possible sanctions?
"
Although everything suggests that he is responsible, we are very far from the indictment and conviction
," she said.
bogging down justice
Without even talking about a prison sentence, a sentence of ineligibility would already be difficult to pronounce.
Two years from the next presidential election, this could cut short the renewed ambitions of a Donald Trump convinced that he has never lost.
But the situation could last for many years.
"
When you have the means of Donald Trump, you can bog down justice and fight for every piece of paper
," said Nicole Bacharan.
It is therefore difficult to imagine a prosecution or sanctions before several years.
If the outcome of this national procedure seems uncertain, opponents of Donald Trump do not lose hope.
Because the Republican is also the subject of an investigation in the state of Georgia, where he would have explicitly asked the Secretary of State to obtain 11,780 votes in order to confirm his election.
The investigation, opened since May, "
should not last more than a year
", estimates Jean-Eric Branaa, in particular because of irrefutable proof: a telephone recording where the voice of Donald Trump is perfectly recognizable. .
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If proven, this desire to tamper with the ballot should allow Georgia to prosecute the billionaire but could also relaunch the national procedure.
"
By relying on a more local condemnation, Merrick Garland will be able to better justify prosecutions at the federal level
", concludes the specialist.
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