Expert sees spiral of escalation: "Hong Kong is becoming a Chinese city"

Created: 06/30/2022, 11:11 am

By: Sven Hauberg

Just before the handover to China, two marines hung up a portrait of Elizabeth II at British Forces Headquarters in Hong Kong.

© Stephen Shaver/AFP (archive photo)

Hong Kong has been part of China again for a quarter of a century.

In an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA, Julia Haes explains what that means for the people in the city - and what Taiwan can learn from it.

Munich/Hong Kong – China is celebrating the anniversary with great pomp, even head of state and party leader Xi Jinping made the trip.

In Hong Kong, however, the mood is depressed: on July 1, 25 years ago, the former British crown colony was returned to the People's Republic.

Back then, in the summer of 1997, many people in the financial metropolis still had hopes that China would keep its promises and respect the city's liberal system for the next 50 years.

There is not much left of that today, as the China expert Julia Haes explains in an interview with

.

Especially since John Lee, a new head of government who is considered a pro-Beijing hardliner, will take office in Hong Kong on July 1.

Ms. Haes, if you compare Hong Kong today with Hong Kong in 1997, how much has the city changed in the last 25 years?

Hong Kong has changed a lot.

The city started with heavy luggage immediately after the handover to China, because the Asian crisis began immediately afterwards, which hit the city hard economically.

Hong Kong only recovered in the mid-2000s.

After that, the mood was quite optimistic for a while until around 2011 when Hong Kong began to feel the mainland Chinese were overrunning the city.

People increasingly felt foreign in their own city.

Then the mood changed – there was resistance and protest.

The mainland has also noticed this and started to tighten the thumbscrews.

This triggered a spiral of escalation, with more and more popular protests, most recently in 2019. A year later, the so-called National Security Law was introduced.

Could the British have guessed in 1997 how unfree Hong Kong would be 25 years later?

It's not as if Hong Kong was a democratic city in 1997 and only became unfree because of the Chinese.

If you look closely, there were few democratic elements among the British either.

The Japanese, of all people, who occupied Hong Kong during World War II, introduced a certain degree of citizen participation.

After that, when the British took over the city again, there were also attempts by the Hong Kong government, but these were vehemently rejected by London.

It wasn't until the 1980s that the British tried again to make Hong Kong more democratic.

But by then it was already too late because the negotiations for the handover were already underway and the Chinese were not prepared to accept later changes.

The British missed the chance

Julia Haes is Managing Director of the China Institute for German Business.

Together with her husband, the sinologist Klaus Mühlhahn, she recently published the book "Hong Kong: Contested Metropolis: From 1841 to the Present".

© zVg

Shouldn't the former colonial power Great Britain have taken a closer look at what is happening in Hong Kong in recent years?

Yes, in any case.

But it wasn't just Britain that looked the other way, the whole world did.

You didn't take the chances you had.

One could have tried to strengthen the structures of the democrats in Hong Kong and to support them.

Instead, we left Hong Kong to itself.

It's always been like this: no one really cared what Hong Kongers actually wanted, neither Great Britain nor China nor the rest of the world.

All have taken advantage of the city's advantages, but have never asked what people actually want there.

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"China fears pro-democracy movement could spill over to mainland"

Did Hong Kong ever have a chance of maintaining its independence after being returned to China?

I believe there would have been a chance to maintain certain democratic structures and elements.

There are several reasons why this didn't work.

First, there is the Communist Party's fear of losing power.

Beijing fears that the pro-democracy movement could spill over onto the mainland and is therefore cracking down on the activists with a heavy hand.

Also, Hong Kong's democratic camp was very fragmented, and that hurt the movement.

In addition, the democratic institutions were not well established at the time of the handover.

The conditions for Hong Kong were therefore not optimal.

But more could have been achieved with the help of western democracies.

What is left of the assurances Beijing made to Hong Kongers at the time of handing them back to China?

There is little left of that.

The Basic Law, negotiated by the Chinese and Hong Kongers, makes some concessions to pro-democracy advocates.

Freedom of expression is mentioned in at least eight articles.

It was also acknowledged that work should be done towards free elections.

All of this has been withdrawn more and more since 2019, and today China is no longer keeping these promises.

Two years ago, the above-mentioned security law came into force, which massively curtails the freedoms of Hong Kongers...

A security law was supposed to be introduced as early as 2003, but this did not happen after massive protests.

The government had underestimated the resistance.

At the second attempt in 2020, two things came together: the year before, the activists had demonstrated with great willingness to use violence.

The pro-democracy camp was also divided, with violent splinter groups taking the lead.

A red line had thus been crossed for Beijing.

Added to this was the corona pandemic: all public activities were prohibited under the guise of health protection.

There was hardly any resistance.

About IPPEN.MEDIA

The IPPEN.MEDIA network is one of the largest online publishers in Germany.

At the locations in Berlin, Hamburg/Bremen, Munich, Frankfurt, Cologne, Stuttgart and Vienna, journalists from our central editorial office research and publish for more than 50 news offers.

These include brands such as Merkur.de, FR.de and BuzzFeed Germany.

Our news, interviews, analyzes and comments reach more than 5 million people in Germany every day.

"A significant proportion of Hong Kongers have benefited greatly from their proximity to China"

How has the identity of people in Hong Kong changed in recent years – do they increasingly see themselves as Chinese?

Since the 2000s, there have been many people in Hong Kong - between one million and a million and a half - who identify as Chinese.

The rest see themselves as Hong Kongers.

In terms of its identity, the city is no longer as independent, hopeful and self-confident as it used to be.

The mood is depressed, especially among people who have lived in Hong Kong for a long time.

Foreigners who live in the city have a different experience: they are more optimistic about the future.

However, you always have the option of being able to leave the city if in doubt.

The Chinese government's actions in Hong Kong have also sparked concern and horror in Taiwan, which sees China as a breakaway province and intends to incorporate it by force if necessary.

But are Hong Kong and Taiwan comparable?

Hong Kong should be governed according to the "one country, two systems" principle, i.e. be part of China but be able to retain its cultural and political characteristics.

This principle was originally developed with Taiwan in mind, in order to be able to tie the country more closely to China again.

However, the situation in Hong Kong and Taiwan is not really comparable.

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What is different?

Hong Kong has always been more closely linked to China than Taiwan.

Throughout Hong Kong's history, mainland Chinese have migrated to the city for political or economic reasons.

They have often kept their connections to their old homeland.

In addition, a not inconsiderable proportion of Hong Kongers have benefited greatly from this proximity to China.

Especially the tycoons who own real estate and do business on the mainland.

They are still in favor of close ties with China today.

China expert at IPPEN.MEDIA: "The West underestimates Beijing's far-sightedness"

And Taiwan?

Economically, Taiwan has never been as closely tied to China as Hong Kong.

In addition, in the case of Hong Kong, the government's fear of the democracy movement spilling over to the mainland always played a role.

This fear does not exist in the case of Taiwan – Taiwan is an island, but the border between China and Hong Kong is very permeable.

In 2019, hundreds of thousands took to the streets of Hong Kong to demonstrate against China's increasing influence.

© Michael Nigro/Pacific Press Agency/Imago

What can Taiwan and other democracies learn from Hong Kong's history?

China was in a good position in the Hong Kong return negotiations because it had a long-term plan.

Hong Kong was handed over to the British in three parts.

The first two parts were ceded permanently.

In 1898, the Chinese government only leased the third and largest part to Great Britain, instead of leaving it permanently.

The West underestimates China's far-sightedness and the strategic planning behind it.

The British delegation entered the negotiations quite unprepared, while China knew very well what it wanted.

All democracies must strengthen and put their democratic structures in order.

This is insurance against the influence of countries like China.

If you venture a look into the future: what can Hong Kong expect in the next few years?

Hong Kong will become even more integrated with China.

"One country, two systems" is increasingly becoming "One country, one system".

It won't go in any other direction.

The democracy movement will be continued from outside, many of the activists live abroad.

But I don't think they can do much.

Hong Kong is becoming a Chinese city.

But Hong Kong has also managed to keep reinventing itself over the years.

It is therefore not impossible that the city can still find a niche for itself in which it remains unique.