On June 28, on the eve of the NATO summit in Madrid, there was a dramatic political turn.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg joined Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson in Madrid After the four-party talks, Turkey agreed to withdraw the resolution vetoing Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO, and signed a tripartite memorandum with the two countries to join NATO.
Stoltenberg said, "We have reached an agreement that will pave the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO." He also pointed out that Finland and Sweden will be formally invited to join NATO at the summit on June 29. May become a member in a few months.
Before that, Turkey's performance could be described as "one husband is in charge, and ten thousand are invincible".
On May 13, Finland and Sweden had not yet formally expressed their position, and Turkey, under the framework of NATO's unanimous decision, publicly opposed the two countries' accession to NATO; He declared that "there is no need to send a delegation to negotiate"; even on the eve of the summit on June 28, Erdogan made a public speech, saying that evidence that Sweden and Finland supported terrorist activities would be released at the meeting, exposing the "anti-terrorism image of the two countries". hypocrisy".
Such a tough stance is in sharp contrast to today's turning point, and the intuitive causal mechanism seems to be related to the negotiated concessions between Finland and Switzerland.
According to Turkey’s Anadolu Agency, the memorandum signed by the three countries includes that Finland and Sweden will expressly condemn all terrorist attacks against Turkey, and pledge to stop the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and others. activities of relevant organizations and individuals, and will promptly consider and handle requests for expulsion or extradition of terrorist suspects based on the information, evidence and intelligence provided by Turkey, and promise not to support the "Gulen Movement" and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party ( PYD) and its affiliated armed group the People's Protection Units (YPG).
Turkey, Finland and Sweden confirmed the lifting of the arms embargo between the three parties. Turkey also confirmed its support for NATO's open policy and said it would support an invitation to Finland and Sweden to join NATO at the Madrid summit.
In short, Turkey has received promises from Sweden and Finland to fight against Kurdish terrorist forces, and at the same time broke the arms embargo on Turkey between the two countries.
However, from the perspective of the game between the United States, Turkey and Russia, it can be seen that this memorandum is just a smoke bomb. Finland and Sweden are not the protagonists from beginning to end, nor are Turkey's real asking prices.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg speaks at a press conference in Brussels, Belgium, on June 27, 2022.
(AP)
America finally gives in
First of all, many analysts on the Internet lamented that the Kurds were betrayed by Europe and the United States again, as if the scene of the US withdrawal of troops from northern Syria in 2019 was repeating itself.
In all fairness, Western countries do not pay attention to the political demands of the Kurds if they are not just for their own use, but it would be biased to interpret the changes in this moral narrative.
According to the Finnish census data in 2021, there are only more than 15,000 Kurds in Finnish, most of whom are from Iraq, and only a few are from Turkey and Iran. In terms of activity types, Kurds do not have significant political significance in Finnish society. Influence, instead, is known for cultural traditions such as the "celebration of Nowruz" (Nowruz).
Although Sweden's census does not collect ethnic-related data, it is estimated from immigration data that the population of Ruikurd is about 100,000, most of whom are from Turkey and Iraq. Political figures include Amineh Kakabaveh, Avi Gulan Avci, Lawen Redar, Sara Gille, Kadir Kasirga and other MPs.
During the NATO expansion talks, Turkey accused Sweden of harbouring terrorists, saying "some of them even sit in parliament", referring to the above-mentioned Kurdish politicians. The Turkish ambassador to Sweden, Emre Yunt, even asked for extradition. Kaabawe returned to Turkey to stand trial.
However, such a request sounds absurd in Sweden. First, the Turkish side cannot provide evidence and explain the substantive connection between the above-mentioned parliamentarians and the PKK, YPG and other organizations. Second, Kaabawe does not even come from Turkey, but Iran.
Perhaps because of this, Yunte withdrew the request for extradition the day after his speech, but such inadvertent "bluffing" just exposed Turkey's aimlessness on the Kurdish issue.
Similar to unfounded allegations, there are still two countries, Finland and Switzerland, who support the "Gülen Movement", but in fact the person who provided political asylum to Fethullah Gülen and ignored Turkey's long-standing request for extradition is Turkey's largest arms supplier, the United States; Switzerland imposes an arms embargo on Turkey, which is rooted in joint sanctions initiated by the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom after Turkey entered northern Syria in 2019, but only France, Spain and the United Kingdom The UK can barely be called Turkey's arms "supplier", while Finland and Sweden account for very few.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg to Sweden.
(AP)
To sum up, whether it is the Kurdish issue or the arms embargo, it is inexplicable to ask Fenri to make concessions in exchange for Turkey’s green light to NATO. .
When looking back at the May issue, three unnamed Turkish officials told Bloomberg that in addition to Turkey’s concerns about the Kurdish issue and the arms embargo, it also hopes that the United States will lift its concerns over Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. The sanctions imposed have brought Turkey back to the F-35 advanced fighter program and supported the "modernization" of Turkey's F-16 fleet.
Earlier, according to the "Wall Street Journal" (WSJ) reported on January 23, 2022, since October 2021, Turkey intends to upgrade its 80 old F-16 fighters, plus purchase 40 F-16V fighters (F-16 Block 70), the related proposal has been sent to the United States for a long time, but it was coldly dealt with by the White House and the Pentagon.
The report pointed out that some U.S. officials said that Turkey’s insistence on purchasing the Russian S-400 system and its preference for Moscow on certain geopolitical issues are the main keys to the U.S.’s hesitation in arms sales.
However, on June 29, the day after Turkey announced the release of Finland and Sweden, the Joe Biden administration announced its support for a plan to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
Taking into account Turkey's complaint about the delay in the F-16 upgrade plan in January and the list of conditions leaked by Turkish officials in May, this change in the US position may be the real key to Turkey's green light for NATO.
In other words, Turkey's blocking of Finland and Sweden from joining NATO has nothing to do with the Kurdish issue and the arms embargo. The object of Turkey's negotiation is not even Finland and Sweden, but Washington, which has deep military interaction with them. From the perspective of the United States, It put pressure on Turkey to delay the sale of the fighter jets, originally to "correct" the "pro-Russian" tendencies of the Turkish side, but did not expect to be "anti-general" in the NATO matter. It is more "pro-Russian", so it can only make concessions to solve the current predicament.
For Turkey, the fact that Finland and Switzerland have joined NATO will not harm their own geographical interests, but if they can seize the opportunity and become the hub of the dilemma, they can win more bargaining chips for the country.
This time, we took the opportunity to win the F-16 from the United States, and we will continue to fight for the F-35 and other interests in the future. It has always been a distinctive feature of the Erdogan government to play high-risk brinkmanship with a medium-sized country.
The NATO summit was held in Madrid, Spain.
(AP)
How Turkey-Russia Relations Move Forward
On the other hand, although this release is not good for Russia, it does not mean that the relationship between Turkey and Russia will be gone forever. "Relevant cooperation" between Russia and Ukraine in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
First of all, when Moscow discussed sending troops to Ukraine, in addition to the narrative of "liberating the Donbass" and "preventing genocide", it mainly focused on "NATO expansion" to threaten Russia's national security.
However, in contrast to past historical developments, "NATO's eastward expansion" does not seem to be a sufficient reason for military action against Ukraine.
Looking back at the fifth eastward expansion of NATO in 2004, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were among them, which means that NATO has actually expanded to Russia.
Or go mad and fight at all costs?
The answer is no.
In the final analysis, Russia also knows that it does not have the strength to fight NATO to the death. At the same time, even if the three Baltic countries are opposed to Russia, they have no profound historical and cultural significance to Russia, so they have no intention of taking geopolitical adventures here.
However, Ukraine is different. Russia regards it as the land of prosperity of the Slavic civilization. At the same time, it does not want to lose Crimea, the port of the Black Sea Fleet. Therefore, under national complex and geopolitical considerations, even if Ukraine has not joined NATO, it must It's better to start first to avoid this risk.
In other words, "NATO's eastward expansion" does play a role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but it cannot explain Russia's logic of action. Instead, it plays a role in the field of public opinion for Russia to justify its own actions. From a realistic perspective, The key to this "special military operation" is Ukraine's historical and geographical specificity towards Russia.
Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin attend a press conference in Helsinki on May 15, 2022 to announce Finland's national security policy decision, the two said the Finnish President and the government's Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy Approval of Finland's application to join NATO.
The Finnish Parliament met on the 16th to consider Finland's application to join NATO.
(AP)
Similarly, in the face of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Russia will not respond to the "Ukrainian standard", but will take a similar position as when it accepted the fifth eastward expansion of NATO in 2004: First, Russia is currently lacking in skills and cannot Northern Europe has opened a new front; secondly, Finland and Switzerland have no special national and geographical significance to Russia, and there is really no need to take risks and fight.
In short, from Russia's point of view, the Nordic countries' accession to the treaty is essentially an existence that neither can nor must be prevented.
In this context, Turkey's "one husband" means "major threat", but it is more effective for NATO, Europe and the United States and other Western camps. For Russia, it is natural that Turkey is willing to attack this matter, but it is also Knowing that Erdogan is more concerned with his own interests than he is willing to be a pawn in Moscow, if the West meets its relevant requirements, "letting go" is just a click away.
Therefore, when the issue was fermented in May, Vladimir Putin had already stated that Russia had no opinion on the two countries joining NATO.
This statement is not only an announcement of Russia's final position, but also an immediate internal and external stop loss for the result of the operation of the "NATO eastward expansion" public opinion front, and at the same time to avoid "single bet" on Turkey in the end.
In addition, apart from the issue of preventing Fenrru from joining NATO, Russia and Turkey have many geopolitical cooperation for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
One of them is the related mechanism of "Turkey and Russia jointly selling Ukrainian grain".
Yevgeny Balitsky, head of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia interim military-civilian administration, said on June 8 that the Zaporizhzhia region is supplying food to the Middle East, including food sources from Hull. Grain acquired by Kherson and Zaporozhye, "We are shipping grains through Russia, with a major contract signed with Turkey, the first trains have already departed via Crimea to the Middle East, a traditional market in Ukraine. "
On June 8, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov (left) and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu (right) attended a joint press conference in Ankara, Turkey.
(AP)
On June 3, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, also said that Turkish buyers were among the recipients of Russia's "stealing food from Ukraine."
To sum up, both Russian information and Ukrainian observations reveal the harsh reality of international politics: for regions such as Africa and the Middle East, if Ukraine’s supply plummets, it will not only be unable to switch to purchasing Russian grains. Hesitate, but take action.
From a geographical point of view, Turkey has half the key to enter the Black Sea, and it also plays a "middle route" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It will naturally be the first choice for Russia's cooperation.
In addition, Erdogan also announced a new round of military operations in Syria on May 23. The goal is to consolidate the 30-kilometer security zone established by the Turkish side along the Turkish-Syrian border and prevent the southern border from being attacked by the "Islamic State" (IS) organization and Kurdish forces. Militia threat.
Such measures must also be coordinated with Russia to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2020 and detonating the conflict between Turkey and Russia.
In short, the re-expansion of NATO this time signifies the success of Turkey's bid for the United States, but it does not necessarily lead to the regression of Turkey-Russia relations. It may even be a further cover for Turkey and Russia to deepen relevant cooperation when confronted with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The game of great powers is complicated. Turkey is well versed in the principle of asking prices from multiple parties and not simply choosing sides. Therefore, under this geographical change, Turkey can obtain political benefits that exceed the size of a medium-sized country.
After Turkey no longer opposed, NATO officially invited Finland and Sweden to join Turkey and issued the slogan: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict affects the Syrian battlefield to advance to Iraq, and then prevents NATO from expanding again: Why does Turkey open its bow under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?