General view of a Sasol gas plant in Mozambique's Inhambane province. Juda Ngwenya (Reuters)
In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has launched a desperate search for substitutes for coal, oil and gas.
In the REPowerEU programmatic document, the European Commission proposes “to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuels before 2030″.
To do this, it plans, first of all, to work with “international partners to find alternative energy supplies”, such as the gas that rests in the subsoil of some African countries.
African governments have been quick to welcome this transformation of European politics.
Before the war, Algeria was already the third largest supplier of natural gas to Europe through gas pipelines to Spain and Italy.
Another important part arrives by sea from the Gulf of Guinea (Nigeria, Angola and Equatorial Guinea).
In this case, it is transported as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In recent months, several European officials have visited Algiers, Dakar, Abuja, Brazzaville and Luanda to explore the possibilities of increasing gas imports.
The European Commission has signed a tripartite agreement to ensure the arrival of Israeli gas through Egypt.
In addition, investments by European companies in LNG projects are being revitalized.
Some examples are those of BP in Senegal and Mauritania;
of ENI in Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Angola and Republic of the Congo, and of Equinor and Shell in Mozambique and Tanzania.
African gas for African development
But natural gas is not only exported: it is also increasingly used within African countries.
Many consider it to be a fundamental source of transition to ensure development.
Gas in cylinders can replace more polluting energy sources, such as firewood or general coal, with widespread use in African homes and with detrimental effects on the health of families.
The fundamental use, in a continent with very low levels of electrification, is that of electricity generation.
This practice is already a reality in countries like Ghana, which while it exports most of its oil to international markets, uses gas to power its electrical infrastructure.
Natural gas also has the potential to supply both the national and regional markets through gas pipelines.
Access to electricity (% of population) in African countries, according to data from the World BankAlicia Campos
Currently, the West African Gas Pipeline crosses the territories of Nigeria, Benin, Togo and Ghana, and another links South Africa with Mozambique.
In addition, there are projects in the same direction: such as the one that would supply gas to Uganda from Tanzania and the African Renaissance Gas Pipeline, which would be the second between Mozambique and South Africa.
Finally, Nigeria would be the origin of both the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline that would reach Algeria, and the one that would connect Nigeria with Morocco.
The importance of these two gas pipelines is that they could be linked to the European gas networks.
But, are these two projects of extraversion and integration compatible?
Can the supply of African gas to Europe be increased, and at the same time supply energy to African homes and the productive sector?
How do they combine with the just energy transition called for by so many in Africa and in Europe?
There are those who think that all these objectives are convergent.
The fundamental argument is that the growing European interest will entail the investments that are essential to extract and value this source of energy.
Furthermore, it is claimed that gas exports to Europe will provide additional resources for African states to invest in development.
There are reasons, however, not to be so optimistic.
The risks of natural gas
Africa's energy needs are vastly greater than Europe's.
As much as the production and availability of gas can be increased at a given time, exporting it will always result in the decrease of a non-renewable resource.
This can become a
mortgage
for the medium and long-term strategy in the aspirations of electrification and industrialization in Africa.
The infrastructures required to export gas are not the same as those required to power the electricity grids or supply gas cylinders to families on the continent.
The former tend to generate so-called enclave economies.
And well-known stories of failure in development processes based on the extraction and sale of natural resources can be reproduced.
From another perspective, environmental groups on the continent remind us that gas is a fossil fuel that contributes to climate change.
Therefore, any investment in it reduces the resources that should be allocated to the promotion of renewable energies.
The European interest could also prove transitory, while the European Union maintains the objective of drastically reducing its dependence on fossil fuels by 2030. The construction of more gas infrastructures could become new
white elephants
of development.
Like other natural resources from the subsoil, gas tends to generate perverse political effects in countries with weak social contracts between the rulers and the ruled.
Specifically, the income generated by the sale of gas can be used to reinforce the power and assets of those who occupy the State, rather than to finance public services and economic development.
It is true that the strength of the social contract and of state institutions differs greatly from one African country to another.
But foreign partners do not distinguish between more or less democratic governments.
It is paradoxical that the European quest for energy autonomy from an autocrat, such as Vladimir Putin, could end up reinforcing others.
future dilemmas
At a time of tension like the present, it will be difficult for African and European leaders to heed any of these reasons for scrapping plans to feed Europe more African gas.
Fortunately, this will not prevent progress in the second and third of the strategies proposed by in the REPowerUE document: energy saving and the acceleration of the great transition towards renewable energies.
Africa can also play a great role in the production of these clean energies both for domestic consumption and for export.
But this will not be entirely without dilemmas in the future either.
We will then see how African rulers balance the interests of international investors and the needs of their own citizens.
Alicia Campos Serrano
is Professor of African Studies and Anthropology of International Relations at the Autonomous University of Madrid.
Ángeles Sánchez Diez
is coordinator of the Study Group on the Transformations of the World Economy (GETEM) at the Autonomous University of Madrid.
This article was originally published on The Conversation.
You can follow PLANETA FUTURO on
,
and
, and subscribe
to our 'newsletter'
here
.