The decision to retire from politics was made by Naftali Bennett the day after his decision to dissolve the Knesset and transfer the reins to Yair Lapid.
The meeting of activists in the Knesset on Monday slightly undermined his confidence.
Bennett is in the midst of a battle over the narrative of how he will be remembered as prime minister.
In doing so, he invests all his energy (and his party's funding).
The activists' excited call not to resign made it clear to him that he might be more successful in this task from within, as head of a party, perhaps as a senior minister in the next government.
But then you recovered.
From the polls, he understood that the handful of activists in the Knesset do not really reflect the mood outside.
The sour faces from Lapid's immediate surroundings also did their part.
The message from Lapid's associates was sharp and quite painful.
His right-wing candidacy will endanger the entire bloc if he does not pass the blocking percentage in the election.
That was another soft message.
The more difficult thing was that they simply did not trust him to remain loyal to the bloc and not return to the arms of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Bennett picked up on the message and realized he had nothing to delay his decision.
The one who tried until the last minute to persuade Bennett to stay is Ayelet Shaked.
Bennett could have been her entry ticket to the next Knesset.
She now inherits her right but not sure she knows what exactly to do with it.
The blocking percentage will be difficult to pass on its own, and options for joining - there are not so many.
On the right, the door is closed to her because of the maintenance of the government and its incessant attempts to prolong its life.
The left suspects that at the first opportunity she has, she would rather join Netanyahu, and not be happy to connect with her.
In the battle between her and Matan Kahana, Bennett's preferred candidate to succeed him, Shaked won the battle, but apparently lost the battle.
While she gropes her way through the darkness, Kahana will find a safe place in one of the lists of candidates for the Knesset, probably blue and white or a new hope (between Bnei Gantz and Gideon Saar, advanced contacts to unite lists).
Despite the limited possibilities, as soon as she took over the chairmanship of the party, Shaked began to try to stabilize the ship and prevent a collapse. It is clear to her that there will be some who will leave. The great abandonment and the formation of the government, and on the left for not ruling out a meeting with Netanyahu.
Shaked also intends to appeal to members of religious Zionism.
To the central part of them, which does not easily connect with Ben Gvir and Smutrich.
She knows she has a lot of work to do, and the anger is great.
As part of the reconciliation efforts she will try to explain to them that the government was not so bad, and not as leftist as they think.
The Art of Managing the Bloc
Lapid did not make multiple preparations for his inauguration as prime minister - yet a transitional government cannot do too much.
But he sees this as an opportunity created for him to concentrate on an almost exclusive task in the coming months: to accustom the public to the phrase "Prime Minister Yair Lapid."
This will be dealt with day and night throughout the months of the campaign.
He therefore insists on an election campaign that is as long as possible.
Lapid will deal with his image more than anything else.
People around him say that the political issue will be the main platform for this.
From President Biden's visit at the beginning of the campaign, to a speech at the UN General Assembly at the end.
Lapid is not willing to repeat the mistake of his predecessor and will not allow the security personnel and the Prime Minister's Office to turn his private home in Ramat Aviv into a secure fortress.
In his opinion, the bloc he heads is stable, and there is no real danger that one of his parties will not pass the blocking percentage.
Including Meretz.
If the right does not face the end, and a new hope unites with the blue and white, it will be calm for the next four months.
The only concern is the over-strengthening of Merav Michaeli.
Lapid would like to keep it at its current size and no more, so as not to cause him trouble later on.
Lapid's campaign will naturally be conducted from the position of head of the bloc, but it is not impossible that there will not be a single player in this arena.
The union of Ganz and Saar may be significant in this context.
Internal polls conducted by these parties have revealed that the distance between such a unified list and there is a not-so-great future that may be closable.
If Gadi Izenkot decides to join his former commander, Blue and White's shares will rise even more.
But it is not only the number of seats that is important, as everyone in the outgoing government knew, but the possibilities that are at stake after the election.
And Gantz, it seems, has more options than Lapid, especially in the ultra-Orthodox sector.
We happened to pass by to say hello
Netanyahu is also calm.
When both competitors are calm, one of them suffers from a lack of appreciation.
Probably only after the election will we know who.
Even before the election and its results, Netanyahu can mark a big V for himself.
Even huge.
The achievement of overthrowing the government within one year of office is unprecedented.
He and Yariv Levin were once again revealed as the sharpest and most polished political team in the political space in Israel.
With determined, often arduous and exhausting work, they managed to dismantle the wall built in front of them stone after stone.
They did so not only against the strong desire of the government to survive and of the politicians to stay on the wheel, but also against some of the media, which responded to the government and continued to attack Netanyahu even though he had already stepped down.
Went together?
Gafni and Gantz, Photo: Gideon Markowitz
From the polls and studies that Netanyahu has, there is a significant chance that one of the parties on the other side will not pass.
Mostly right or new hope, or both if they run separately.
Their voters are too crisp and unidentified.
Both Saar and Shaked have no basis, and Netanyahu believes that in an accurate campaign it will be possible to bring them to their knees.
The main emphasis for him this time will be on bringing voters to the polls.
The Likud is convinced that some 300,000 Likud and right-wing voters remained at home in the previous elections and will do everything in their power to get them out of indifference.
The Likud headquarters believe that the danger of forming a left-wing government, which became tangible with the formation of the government that ousted Netanyahu, will help them in their mission.
The main message will be the common ("government with Balad," all senior Likud members said in interviews this week).
Only it is not certain that the block will indeed remain intact as it was.
The weak link is, again, Torah Judaism.
The Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party is only waiting for the first opportunity they will have to leave Netanyahu and return to the position of Libra in Israeli politics, a position in which they have been for decades.
If the bloc does not get 61 seats it will be a golden opportunity for them.
Benny Ganz is already waiting for them with open arms.
Gantz's working assumption is that if Netanyahu does not get 61, he will become the prime ministerial candidate in the Lapid bypass with the help of the ultra-Orthodox.
Torah Judaism promises that they will bring Shas and try to do everything to bring the Likud as well, of course when Gantz first rotates. Lapid would have a hard time getting rid of Lieberman and Meretz. Gantz will have no problem with that. He has no commitment to them.
Meanwhile, Likud MKs have entered a primaries situation.
The members of the center have been flooding the Knesset in recent days, and they know why.
This is exactly the time to take out all the promises and commitments from the Knesset members.
It wants to put his son in office in the minister's office, and it wants to run his nephew in Dan County.
Everyone works for everyone, scattering promises without any coverage.
The diaries are starting to fill up with house circles, weddings, bar mitzvahs and differentiate condolences mourners, and the elimination lists are also starting to be written.
Ariel Nahum, a well-known Likud activist from Petah Tikva, held a housewarming last weekend.
On weekdays, maybe 20 people would come to it.
But with the smell of primaries in the air, he found himself facing close to a century.
Israel Katz, Amir Ohana, Shlomo Qara, Galit Distel Atbrian, Tzachi Hanegbi and former MK Shuli Mualem, who "happened to pass by in the area," also came to say hello.
Until smoke comes out
The political drama in the Knesset is dwarfed by the upheaval of one of the underground parties, which will once again try its luck to pass the blocking percentage for the first time - a green leaf.
It started when the party's general manager from 2015, Adv. Dekel Ozer, was to be appointed chairman of the list in place of the party's founder Boaz Wechtel. To belong to 'just not the right block'.
I must be involved / make decisions in the political platform and in material decisions.
I did not form the party to join the Israeli fascist right even if it came at the expense of legalization, "Wechtel wrote. To the extent that they have improved this promise, they are immediately removed from the list and obliged (before the vote) to resign from the Knesset. ".
An assistant tried to protest.
He is generally with right-wing leanings.
Last time he collaborated with Moshe Feiglin.
But Wechtel was adamant.
"You will not be chairman if you and the list do not commit not to vote with the right ... smoke something and calm down.
You're too stressed. "
At this point an assistant has lost patience: "I do not commit to anything. As long as I am the chairman, until 30 days after the election or until I am not a Knesset member on behalf of Green Leaf, whichever is later, I decide everything.
You can call, I will always answer and comment, but I decide. "And Katel got upset:" Say, are you okay in the head?
Do you want your right-wing brainwashers to kill someone here? "
Ozer, who claims to hold a majority of the party's board members, wrote in response: "Just so you know I'm considering ousting you. I did not want to make a legal move but you are not fit to be her green husband. Legally I and you are board members, and I am a decisive voice. I wanted to do everything Agree but now I find out you are a Meretz or Hadash agent.
And Katel: "Our relationship is over. You will form a party. If you think you are threatening me with your gutter language, you have made a big mistake. You are fired from all your positions in the party."
An aide, who served as legal counsel for the Labor Party, was not moved: "You are expelled from the party. I will make a formal decision as soon as possible. It is a public body of cannabis consumers, not yours. You take a public body and violate trust in the most blatantly perceived way. I will not be surprised if you are a member of Meretz. "
Minutes later he issued a statement on behalf of the party that the founder of Green Leaf and Katel had been fired.
Now the question is whether Netanyahu's 61st hopes will come from the most unexpected place of
the system.
Were we wrong?
Fixed!
If you found an error in the article, we would love for you to share it with us