This year marks the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland. Tourism is one of the four traditional industries in Hong Kong. Since the signing of the CPEA between the Hong Kong government and the mainland, with the opening of independent travel, the number of inbound tourists from the mainland has soared, and the sales value of the retail industry has also hit new highs.
However, the problem of "zero group fare" has arisen from independent travel, and the excessive number of tourists also has a negative impact on people's livelihood. Looking back over the past 10 years, whether the considerable economic dividends directly or indirectly generated by independent travel have caused Hong Kong's retail and other related development to go wrong. direction?
Some scholars believe that the brilliance of the retail industry is a historical opportunity, and it will be difficult to see it again in the future; there are also veterans of the tourism industry who believe that in the future, research should be conducted to attract high value-added tourists, such as those who come to Hong Kong to participate in exhibitions or business tourists.
The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 has caused a drop in the number of tourists in Hong Kong.
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Mainland arrivals exceeded 50 million in 2018
The 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland, in fact, before the outbreak of the epidemic and social movements, the sales value of Hong Kong's retail industry and the number of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong continued to hit new highs.
By the peak period in 2018, the number of inbound arrivals from the Mainland had exceeded 50 million, a difference of about 22 times in 20 years compared to 2.29 million in 1997.
However, the retail industry still failed to surpass the peak of 494.4 billion yuan in 2013, becoming the third-highest year since the reunification with 485.1 billion yuan.
Afterwards, social movements broke out in 2019, and the sales value of the retail industry and the number of inbound arrivals from the mainland fell. Until 2020, due to the closure of customs, the latter even returned to the level of 1998.
However, the disappearance of mainland tourists did not seem to have caused a fundamental fatal blow to the retail sales value. In the absence of tourists, the amount fell to about 326.5 billion yuan, a drop of 32.7% compared to 2018.
In other words, it can be inferred that the 50 million person-times will only bring about more than 100 billion yuan in revenue to Hong Kong's retail industry, and local consumers alone can still maintain about 70% of the peak consumption amount.
▼The situation of SARS attacking Hong Kong in 2003▼
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However, in the past 10 years, mainland tourists have brought many livelihood problems to Hong Kong. How do people in the industry look back on the past 25 years?
Yao Sirong, a 67-year-old former member of the tourism industry legislature, has been in the industry for many years and has witnessed the rise and fall of Hong Kong's tourism industry.
Although he has now retired, he is still active in the industry and serves as a director of China Tourism Group Travel Services Co., Ltd.
Talking about the development of Hong Kong's tourism and retail industry in the past 25 years, he believes that the opening of visa-free independent travel in 2003 is indeed one of the turning points of Hong Kong's tourism and retail industry.
Tourism is more profitable before free travel
Citing data, Yao said that in 1997, the total number of inbound arrivals in Hong Kong was 11 million (including all mainland and overseas tourists), but it soared to 65 million in 2018 about 20 years later. Although independent travel has brought considerable income to Hong Kong on the one hand , providing hundreds of thousands of jobs in the retail, catering, hotel and exhibition industries, but at the same time, it also creates a series of problems.
He agrees that the gathering of parallel traders in Sheung Shui has indeed brought many conflicts to the residents. The most direct example is the simplification of shops. Most of the shops in the area have been turned into pharmacies for receiving parallel traders, which also leads to the rent and prices in the area. The rise, which eventually gave birth to demonstrations.
On the contrary, in the era before the opening of independent travel, although the number of hotels and flights was much lower than before the outbreak, passengers could only book air tickets and hotels through travel agencies; but at that time, travel agencies separated inbound and outbound travel, each with its own market, and the industry’s profits were even higher. higher, the operating business is more stable.
"It's a very grand time to travel abroad. It's not like going to the New Territories to play. A big family will pick up the plane. Everyone is willing to spend money."
Same-day mainlanders are not tourists: retail shopping has never been the mainstay of tourism
Li Zhaobo, an honorary teaching and research scholar at the Asia-Pacific Business Institute of the CUHK Business School, pointed out that when the central government opened up free travel, it was indeed a "gift to Hong Kong", and the new crown epidemic also provided an experimental platform that was impossible in the past.
Citing data, he pointed out that at the beginning of 2020, the revenue of the retail industry has dropped by more than 10 billion yuan a month, but the revenue of the entire catering industry in Hong Kong is only about 9 billion yuan per month, which shows that the loss is huge.
Although independent travelers do make a contribution to Hong Kong, Li believes that the same-day travel mode for mainlanders is not healthy. It is only beneficial to the retail industry, but it is of limited help to the hotel industry and other industries.
He suggested that the government should redefine the same-day mainlanders, emphasizing that they belong to the same country as Hong Kong and do not belong to the international definition of tourism (Tour).
▼Yuzhi Liangpin announces the closure▼
The brilliance of the retail industry in the past 10 years is a historical opportunity
In addition, as Hong Kong is an aviation hub in the Greater Bay Area, many mainlanders make a special trip to go abroad through Hong Kong, but they enter Hong Kong only for customs clearance. Government statistics also classify them as tourists.
Li explained that the mainlanders who come to Hong Kong for transit are only "passers" and contribute the least to the economy. He said bluntly: "The tourists from their own country are called internal consumption. By."
The two-and-a-half-year-old epidemic is a good opportunity for Hong Kong to adjust its direction.
Li believes that the brilliance of the retail industry in the past is a historical opportunity. As mainlanders become familiar with online shopping and establish sales channels, it is expected that it will be difficult to reach a new peak.
He explained that since the products sold in Hong Kong are not unique and produced in Hong Kong, as the exchange rate of the Japanese yen has hit a record low in recent years, Hong Kong people would rather shop online or wait for the switch to go shopping locally.
"The world is free-flowing, and people know to go to other places to buy things."
▼On June 22, Hong Kong's first Japanese tour group set off under the epidemic▼
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In the early days of independent travel, mainland tourists have strong spending power
In fact, after reaching its peak in 2013, the sales value of Hong Kong's retail industry has gradually weakened, and has been hovering between 400 billion and 500 billion yuan. However, in 2013, the number of inbound tourists from the Mainland was about 40.74 million, compared with the peak period ( 2018) still owed 10 million.
It can be seen that the number of tourists is not directly proportional to the sales value of the retail industry, that is, the spending power of mainland tourists after 2013 is unsustainable.
Yao recalled that at the beginning of the opening of independent travel, many mainland tourists came to Hong Kong for shopping for their family members or village relatives and friends, so their consumption power was relatively strong. As a result, some Hong Kong travel agencies will force group members to shop because they want to avoid losses after receiving tourists from mainland China.
He pointed out that after the Travel Council introduced a number of measures for mainland tour groups and the establishment of the Bureau of Tourism Administration and the Bureau of Culture, Sports and Tourism, reception arrangements have become standardized and the situation has eased.
He pointed out that "in the past, the tour guide forced the group members to buy and exist, but it was never sour."
In recent years, the consumption power of mainland customers has weakened, and the gold jewelry industry has opened branches in Minsheng District.
Chow Sang Sang, a jewelry retailer with a history of nearly 90 years, once said that after the implementation of independent travel, the group has indeed benefited from mainland tourists' huge demand for gold and luxury goods. Compared with before the independent travel, the business volume has increased at least year-on-year. At that time, the group also accelerated the pace of opening stores; however, after the peak period, the jewelry industry began to enter a period of adjustment in 2014. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the number of stores in tourist areas has been reduced in recent years, and the opening of stores in Yuen Long and Shatin has been changed. Open branches in Minsheng District to absorb rigid demand and the consumer market for self-use.
It is difficult to restrict the entry of mainlanders after the switch, the government can only see tricks
In addition to the problem of zero group fees arising from the independent travel, the same-day passengers continue to flock to Hong Kong, and the number of inbound arrivals has repeatedly hit new highs. The outside world has questioned whether Hong Kong's ability to receive tourists has reached the upper limit, and it is even described as "Hong Kong's land sinking".
Li Zhaobo believes that due to the integration of Hong Kong's goal with the Greater Bay Area, it cannot introduce an entry tax like other countries, or restrict the number of people entering the country with visas. The government can only resort to tricks in a passive situation.
Li believes that after the epidemic is over, the East Rail Line, which has recently opened to traffic across the sea, will be put to the test again. At that time, the MTR may need to order more trains, or implement luggage capacity restrictions, etc., to prevent mainland passengers from forcing the carriages.
However, he estimates that the closure of the customs for many years has hit Hong Kong's economy hard, and he believes that the tolerance of Hong Kong people has also improved, and there will be no resentment in a short period of time.
▼The epidemic lasted for more than two years, and the airport was full of passenger planes▼
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Excessive Mainland arrivals hinder the development of foreign tourists
As for overseas tourists, the growth after the return is not obvious, and even tends to stagnate.
Yao believes that it is also related to independent travel. As the proportion of mainland tourists has increased to nearly 80%, the supply of hotels in Hong Kong has been tight, and the occupancy rate has been at 90% to 95% for a long time.
As a result, hotels offer high prices to overseas tourists, and even offer "seafood prices", reducing their desire to come to Hong Kong.
At the same time, Hong Kong is overly reliant on traditional attractions such as Ocean Park, Disneyland and The Peak, which has led to bottlenecks in development. There are also more and more Disney and other theme parks around the world, and related attractions are no longer an incentive to visit Hong Kong.
Li also mentioned that before the epidemic, Ocean Park also used discounts to attract more price-sensitive tourists. However, their stay time was short and their spending power was weak. They could only refresh the number of admissions and failed to stimulate retail sales.
He suggested that the future target should be on high-end tourists, including those coming to Hong Kong for exhibitions or business travelers.
He criticized the tourism industry in the past and even the retail industry that relied too much on independent travel for being unhealthy and unsustainable, so he asked a rhetorical question: "What exactly is tourism?"
▼On June 14, Aberdeen Jumbo Seafood Restaurant moved out of Hong Kong▼
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Internet development and multinational corporations threaten the survival of local travel agencies
Recently, the Jumbo Seafood Boat fell into the water in the South China Sea and turned over. There are voices in the community that Hong Kong will lose its characteristic tourist attractions again.
Yao Dan believes that Hong Kong "does not have many traditions left behind", and exploring historical or traditional attractions is not a suitable development direction for Hong Kong tourism. Instead, he named projects that can be promoted in the future, such as the waterfronts on both sides of the Victoria Harbour and the northeastern New Territories. The World Geopark, Aerospace City, Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, M+ in the West Kowloon Cultural District and the Palace Museum, etc.
He believes that the above attractions are all new tourism resources in Hong Kong, which can attract tourists from the Greater Bay Area and overseas to visit.
Before the social movement and the outbreak of the epidemic, although the number of tourists in Hong Kong continued to rise, Yao admitted that with the development of the Internet and competition from multinational companies, local travel agencies are facing greater challenges. To avoid reducing profits through intermediaries, although there are still about 1,700 travel agencies in Hong Kong, only less than 10% are large travel agencies, and most of them can only rely on regular customers to make a living.
▼On June 3, the opening ceremony of Sha Tau Kok Pier was held▼
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Comment on the tourism industry is still a sunrise industry: but it will definitely shrink if it does not catch up with the times
Only dangers are also opportunities. Small and medium-sized travel agencies have low operating costs and can survive the impact of the epidemic. In the past two years, only about 100 have closed.
Yao believes that if a travel agency wants to expand its scale, it needs to develop in a diversified way. Taking China Travel Service as an example, it is considering reducing the number of outlets, saving salaries and rents and other expenses, and studying for high value-added customer sources.
He also emphasized that the services provided by CTS are genuine, so it can receive relevant receptions from mainland medical personnel coming to Hong Kong and the general agent of the Olympic Games, and will strive for more business in the future.
Hong Kong's economy is closely related to tourism and retail. Although there have been tremendous changes in the past 25 years, Yao is optimistic about the future. He believes that tourism is still a sunrise industry. As long as it keeps up with the development of world trends, the demand will continue.
He said, "Travel agencies must be polarized. It is difficult to maintain the status quo, but if they do not catch up with the times, they will definitely shrink."
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