Beverages, textiles and medicines: the consequences of a Russian gas supply stop

Created: 07/01/2022 08:17

By: Lisa Mayerhofer

Laboratory technicians from Biontech work in a clean room.

© Boris Roessler/dpa/archive image

A gas delivery stop would have fatal consequences for the German economy, a study shows.

According to a report, the production of vital medicines could also be at risk.

Munich – This scenario is becoming more and more realistic: Russia is completely stopping its gas supplies to Europe after the Kremlin significantly reduced them in June.

According to a recent study, however, this would hit the German economy hard.

According to a Prognos study for the Bavarian Business Association (vbw), a “loss in German economic output totaling 12.7 percent” can be assumed.

Arithmetically, around 5.6 million jobs would be affected.

Study describes scenario of a Russian gas delivery stop

The investigation assumes the scenario of a supply failure of Russian gas from July.

According to the analysis, in this case not even half of the gas needs of the industry would be covered.

"The added value of the sectors directly affected would fall by 3.2 percent, which corresponds to a loss of around 49 billion euros," explained the vbw.

"Particularly affected are sectors such as the glass industry or steel processing, where we have to assume that the added value will drop by almost 50 percent," explained CEO Bertram Brossardt.

The same applies to the chemical, ceramics, food and textile sectors as well as printing - here the value-added losses are over 30 percent.

Another study by the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) and the market researchers from Calculus Consult examined the consequences of a gas supply stop for various sectors in Germany.

Gas delivery stop with "dramatic effects" for the beverage industry

The beverage industry is highly dependent on imported gas, reports

.

A quarter of the energy used is Russian gas.

"A delivery stop would have dramatic effects on the entire beverage industry - also indirectly," warns Holger Eichele, Managing Director of the German Brewers' Association in the magazine.

Not only the energy-intensive beverage production would be affected by a gas supply stop, but also upstream suppliers such as malt houses as well as packaging and glass manufacturers.

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Textile industry dependent on Russian gas

According to the

, the textile industry would also suffer greatly from a gas delivery stop.

Russian gas accounts for more than 20 percent of energy consumption in the industry.

Above all, the manufacturing process of functional fabrics in products such as airbags or work shoes requires a lot of gas.

pharmaceutical and chemical industries affected

However, it is particularly bitter that a lack of Russian gas could endanger the production of vital medicines - according to the

quotes from industry representatives.

According to the study, the Russian share of gas in energy consumption in the pharmaceutical industry is 18.7 percent.

According to the magazine, both Dax companies and medium-sized companies in the pharmaceutical industry are dependent on the gas.

The situation is similar in the chemical industry, which requires more gas than almost any other branch of industry.

The gas is also an important raw material for chemicals such as ammonia, which is a raw material for fertilizers and medicinal products.

Paper industry: From gas supply stop to production stop

The production of packaging for food and medicines would also be severely affected by a gas supply stop.

"A gas embargo would practically mean a nationwide production stop for the paper industry," says Alexander von Reibnitz, general manager of the industry association "Die Papierindustrie" of the

.

Paper production would be significantly affected.

Study: Goal should be independence from Russian gas

The Bavarian Business Association (vbw) sees enormous "domino effects" in their scenario, which would hit the "entire value chain" sensitively.

"In the study scenario, we arrive at a further 144 billion euro drop in added value," explained Brossardt.

"The disruptions in the intensively intertwined production and supply chains would have about three times the impact across all industries compared to the direct consequences."

The trade association drew the conclusion from the study that the diversification of Germany's natural gas supply had to be pushed further.

The goal must be complete independence from Russian gas “in the shortest possible time”.

In addition, the energy transition must be decisively promoted.