The two players who could still make Ian Niepómniashi's military tour of Madrid bitter did just the opposite of what was expected.
The American Hikaru Nakamura, normally very combative, presented the Russian with a draw in 16 moves.
And the Chinese Liren Ding, who was launching with three wins in a row, gave a backfire: he was lost with white in only 20 casts.
Barring catastrophe, Niepómniashi will win the Candidates Tournament on Sunday or Monday (after Saturday's break) and will once again challenge the champion, Magnus Carlsen.
But everything depends on the Norwegian giving up, as he announced, to defend his title in April 2023.
“My goal now is 2nd place”, explained Nakamura a few minutes later.
The logic of that phrase would be that, if Carlsen renounces the title, the first two of the Candidates will play the World Cup final.
But the American only took a couple of minutes to add that he would be "surprising" if Carlsen did not defend the crown.
The only way to understand that contradiction is that Nakamura was pragmatic to the limit, estimating that his chances of winning the tournament were just short of nil.
But that assessment was very shallow when he made it, before Ding shocked everyone by getting lost early on.
Nakamura knows very well that Niepómniashi's great weakness is that he collapses after defeats.
Therefore, a victory for the American would have left a lot of uncertainty before the last two rounds.
And there is an additional argument: in the face of his legion of followers on the internet, who have made him a millionaire, Nakamura looked very good on Thursday night, when he fought like a Cossack against the Hungarian Richard Rapport for more than six hours, until move 96, despite the fact that the position had been a very clear tie since a couple of hours before.
And that attitude does not fit with that of Friday, of great general disappointment except for his adversary, whose surprise was very visible.
When Nakamura raised the Berlin Defense, also known as
the Berlin Wall,
with which the Russian Vladimir Krámnik dethroned his compatriot Gari Kasparov in 2000, Niepómniashi went to the bathroom even though it was his turn to play.
And he came back shirtless, without a jacket, with clear gestures of nervousness.
But more than fear, those pouts denoted disbelief: since 2000, that defensive structure has been analyzed ad nauseam, and the white player has a way of responding that almost forces an immediate draw.
Obviously, the current runner-up in the world took just a few minutes to recompose himself emotionally and force the distribution of the point.
Liren Ding, during his game with Radyábov in the 12th round of the Madrid Candidates TournamentPhoto Chess
If what happened with Nakamura has something mysterious, what happened with Ding is inexplicable.
After consecutively defeating Rapport, Caruana and Radyábov, the 2nd in the world seemed to have overcome his loneliness and lack of time to adapt to the time difference with China.
But the truth is that Radyabov hardly had to do anything special to find himself in a strategically winning position shortly after leaving the opening, although Ding did not give up until move 26.
Niepomniashi will have White against Rapport on Sunday and Black against Poland's Jan Duda on Monday.
But the focus of attention will no longer be on him but on Carlsen, who, paradoxically, is in Madrid to intervene in some events of his company, Play Magnus.
He has not yet said if he will visit the Palacio de Santoña to greet his elite colleagues.
It would be amazing if he had the nerve to go to reaffirm that he will not defend the title because he is only motivated to play with Firouzja, the bottom player in the tournament.
And speaking of rennet, Nakamura later published a video on the networks of him that lasted longer than the tie without a fight.
Classification
(after the 12th round): 1st Niepómniashi 8.5 points;
2nd-3rd Ding and Nakamura 6.5;
4th-5th Caruana and Radyabov 6;
6th-7th Doubt and Rapport 5;
8th Firouzja 4.5
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