The Government finalizes an increase in defense spending of about 1,000 million this year

The Government finalizes the approval of a credit supplement for the Ministry of Defense of up to 1,000 million euros with the aim of starting this year, without waiting for the next Budget, the increase in military spending, which should reach 2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, anticipated it at the press conference with which the NATO summit in Madrid concluded last Thursday, although his announcement went unnoticed.

"The Government is already working to increase defense investment this year," he said.

He then expressed his intention of proposing to the Cortes Generales “to reach that 2% in a period of eight years;

that is, until 2029″.

Everyone interpreted that the start of this ascending process would be the General State Budgets for 2023, which the Executive is already preparing, but Sánchez included this same exercise, 2022, in the calculation of eight years, because it is expected that in the coming weeks approve an increase in military spending, according to government sources.

Defense requested in May an extraordinary credit of 3,000 million euros to meet the costs incurred by the Spanish Armed Forces as a result of the war in Ukraine;

from reinforcing NATO deployments in Eastern Europe —the Spanish contingent in Latvia has gone from 350 to 600 soldiers and has been equipped with artillery and anti-aircraft missiles— to delivering tons of ammunition and projectiles to the Ukrainian army, leaving the arsenals drained of blood .

The main cost, however, derives from the decision taken by NATO in Madrid to multiply its high-availability forces almost eightfold, which will go from 40,000 to more than 300,000 troops.

This means drastically cutting reaction times, so that units are ready to fight in a much shorter period of time.

For this to be possible, the personnel templates must be covered, equipped with all their weapons and instructed and trained in peacetime.

They should even be familiar with the scenario where they should be deployed in the event of a crisis.

In the case of NATO contingency plans in the face of hypothetical Russian aggression, this means carrying out regular exercises in the Eastern European country to which the unit is pre-assigned.

And all this has a high economic cost.

Defense's initial request was an extraordinary credit that could be executed in several years and would have to be ratified by Congress.

But this proposal has been ruled out, according to the sources consulted, and finally an extension of credit or some other budget formula has been chosen, such as those used every year to finance military operations abroad charged to the contingency fund.

The game must be spent in its entirety before December 31, since it will be extinguished with the current budget, and its amount will be much lower than the initial 3,000 million.

Although the final figure is unknown, it could reach up to 1,000 million.

Nor will it be necessary for Congress to approve it, although the Council of Ministers will, so the clash between the socialist part of the Executive and its minority partner of United We Can, which has already shown its opposition to Pedro Sánchez's plans to raise military spending up to 2% of GDP.

The Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, has tried this Friday to convince his coalition partners by assuring that one of the "signs of identity" of the left is to protect the weakest.

“Just as we have done with the social shield, this increase in defense spending means giving protection to those who need it most;

otherwise, against external threats ”, he has declared to TVE.

However, the leader of Podemos and Minister of Social Affairs, Ione Belarra, has already warned Sánchez against increasing the defense budget.

"The question that must be asked is, if more money is allocated to military investment, where does that money come from... We have always thought that Spain needs much more investment in guaranteed income than in tanks," she said.

The discordant note in his political field has been set by the Minister of Universities, Joan Subirats, appointed at the proposal of United We Can, who has indicated: “Assuming the costs of what a defense policy means if the risks and threats increase seems justified , what I don't know is if exactly it has to be 2% or not”.

The increase in military spending is not the only reason for friction within the Government: United We Can also opposes increasing the number of US destroyers stationed at the Rota naval base (Cádiz) from four to six, a request that Sánchez accepted on Tuesday in his meeting with President Joe Biden.

The president accelerates the calendar to fulfill the commitment to NATO

President Sánchez announced at the NATO summit that Spain will reach 2% of GDP in military spending in 2029. This date represents an advance of one year compared to the calendar set in the Stability Program that was sent to the European Commission last April 30, where that goal was set for 2030. According to data released by NATO on the 27th, Spain will allocate 13,136 million euros to Defense this year, 1.01% of its GDP.

To reach 2% on that date, military spending would have to almost double in eight years and reach 26,000 million, with an annual growth of almost 0.15 points of GDP, about 2,000 million per year. 

The 2% target was set at the 2014 Wales (UK) summit with a decade ahead.

One year from the goal, nine allies have reached it (Greece, the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia and Slovakia) and another four are close (Romania, France, North Macedonia and Montenegro).

Spain is the red lantern, only ahead of Luxembourg.

The problem is that, in the words of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, 2% is no longer the ceiling, but the floor.

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