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Typhoon No. 8 | The Observatory recognizes that the computer forecast has been underestimating the Siam Ballin Chaoying: it is a deep-seated problem

2022-07-02T13:51:48.327Z

Typhoon "Siamba" hit Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory issued the first typhoon signal No. 8 this year and the first typhoon signal No. 8 hoisted on July 1 in Hong Kong on the evening of July 1. According to earlier forecasts, Siam Ba has been touted as "underwhelming"



Typhoon "Siamba" hit Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory issued the first typhoon signal No. 8 this year and the first typhoon signal No. 8 hoisted on July 1 in Hong Kong on the evening of July 1.

According to the earlier forecast, Siamba has been blown by "light wind", and finally the No. 8 typhoon signal was hung, causing a certain "accident".


The Observatory said in the "Weather Essay" after the "waves fell" tonight (2nd) that the computer forecast model has been underestimating the speed of Siamba's strengthening. into a severe tropical storm.


The observatory did not explain the reason why the computer forecast model underestimated the speed of Siamba's enhancement in the article. Lin Chaoying, the head of the front desk, said that "I don't think" the observatory underestimated, and described the accuracy of the computer model prediction as a "deep problem": "Sometimes overestimates, sometimes underestimates. , I want to watch it case by case.”


▼On July 1st, the Siamba typhoon hit Hong Kong Xinghua Village and the sea turned up a big wave▼


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Computer forecast models underestimate the speed of Siamba's intensification by 7.1 and develop into a severe tropical storm

The Observatory pointed out in the "Weather Essay" that the tropical depression Siamba formed in the central part of the South China Sea on June 29 and moved northwestward and gradually approached the coast of western Guangdong.

However, computer forecast models have been underestimating the speed of Siamba's intensification. In fact, Siamba intensified significantly yesterday, July 1, as it approached the coast of Guangdong and developed into a severe tropical storm.

Siampa further intensified into a typhoon on the morning of July 2 and passed about 300 kilometers southwest of Hong Kong.

▼On July 1, Tropical Cyclone Siamba brought the first typhoon No. 718 to Hong Kong▼


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The observatory has no explanation for the reason for the underestimation of the computer forecast. Lin Chaoying: I don't think the observatory is underestimated.

However, the Observatory did not explain in the "Weather Essay" why computer forecasts have consistently underestimated the speed of Siamba's intensification.

Lin Chaoying, the former director of the Observatory, said, "I don't think the observatory underestimated it," and described the accuracy of computer model predictions as a deep-seated problem: "Sometimes it overestimates, and sometimes it underestimates, so we have to look at it case by case."

▼On July 2, the Siamba typhoon hit the Hong Kong Civil Security Team and pulled up a blockade on the coast of Xinghua Village▼


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Siamba adopts an easterly route than previously, affecting Hong Kong for longer than expected

The Observatory also made a summary on the weather of Siamba in Hong Kong, stating that Hong Kong was already affected by the broad outer rainband of Siamba on July 1, with heavy showers and violent gusts. On that day, more than 40 mm of rainfall was recorded in many areas, and the Observatory once An amber rainstorm warning signal is issued.

Since Siamba adopted a more easterly path this morning, its gale area will affect Hong Kong for longer than previously expected, and the squally showers associated with Siambar will continue to affect Hong Kong.

Until 3:00 p.m., Siamba made landfall near Dianbai District, Maoming City, Guangdong Province, and gradually moved away from Hong Kong. The local wind weakened. The No. 8 gale or storm signal was changed to No. 3 strong wind signal at 4:20 p.m. The outer rainbands of the Pearl River Estuary still bring squally showers.

At the same time, affected by the active southerly air flow, the Observatory expects that the weather along the coast of Guangdong will remain unstable for the next few days.

▼On July 2, the Siamba typhoon hit Hong Kong and the citizens were walking outdoors in Tsim Sha Tsui under the strong wind and heavy rain▼


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Siam Ba typhoon | Mong Kok Chain Cha Kee No. 8 typhoon during the typhoon, all food is sold at $5 plus 5 yuan Siam Ba typhoon | 3 injured and hospitalized during the storm in Hong Kong Bafeng Ball | Hung Hom Ferry Pier with big waves crashing on the shore, many people chasing the wind Children: you should hang the No. 10 typhoon signal Siam Ba typhoon | Civil Security Team blocks the seafront entrance of Xinghua Village Citizens: enterprises are unstable Siam Ba typhoon | Yuen Long chasing the wind Fans went to Xinghua Village to watch the waves and the civil security team came to the scene to call on the Siamba typhoon to stay away from the shore | The Forbidden City opened on Saturday and the weather changed. The typhoon No. 8 was cancelled within three hours. 、The Senior Center is temporarily closed for Siamba Typhoon Balls|A special trip to Tsim Sha Tsui from Tsuen Wan to watch the waves: Feel the power of nature

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-07-02

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