Erdogan is hesitant: Are Sweden and Finland joining NATO faltering?
Created: 07/03/2022 15:24
By: Florian Naumann, Bedrettin Bölükbasi
Admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO could prove difficult.
President Erdogan has now dampened expectations.
The news ticker.
Erdogan
hesitant about
NATO expansion
: The Turkish president has dampened expectations that Finland and Sweden will join soon.
Ankara
is demanding the extradition of 33
"terrorist" suspects
: Turkey is citing an agreement with Sweden and Finland.
Foreign Minister
Baerbock
on the
NATO application
: the accession of Sweden and Finland will strengthen the alliance.
This
news ticker
on the
talks between Finland, Sweden and Turkey
is continuously updated.
Update from July 1, 5:20 p.m .:
The process of admitting Sweden and Finland into NATO could stall before it really started.
Finnish government circles said on Friday that they had not spoken to Turkey about the extradition of individuals.
After the NATO summit in Madrid, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the extradition of 33 people from Finland and Sweden and named them as a condition for the admission of the two states.
The Turkish government described them as "terror suspects".
"We didn't talk about individuals in Madrid," Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said on Friday, according to the Reuters news agency.
It was only agreed to sign a memorandum, Haavisto continued.
However, there were no specific talks about individuals or groups to be extradited to Turkey.
Erdogan had initially spoken out against the inclusion of Finland and Sweden in the military alliance.
Ankara accused the Scandinavian countries of granting protection to terrorist suspects.
These are mainly members of the Kurdish Workers' Party PKK and supporters of the preacher Fethullah Gülen.
Erdogan blames the latter for the failed coup attempt in Turkey in 2016.
Erdogan hesitant about NATO expansion – Turkey only agreed to an invitation
Update from July 1, 2:10 p.m .:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dampened expectations of a smooth admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO.
Apparently, Turkey initially wants to monitor further developments.
Turkey has currently only agreed to an invitation from the Scandinavian countries to join the alliance, Erdogan told reporters after Friday prayers in Istanbul.
"Of course, this invitation has some conditions and we included our conditions in the memorandum," the Turkish leader said.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could continue to block the possible admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO.
© Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa
Sweden and Finland objected to the YPG being included in the memorandum, Erdogan said.
Turkey, however, described this as a "red line" and subsequently ended support for the YPG.
Turkey regards the YPG as the Syrian offshoot of the PKK, which is also designated a terrorist organization by the EU and the US.
In the fight against the IS terrorist militia, however, the YPG is an ally of the international coalition.
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Update from June 30, 4 p.m.:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the agreement with Sweden and Finland at the NATO summit in Madrid as a “diplomatic victory” for Turkey.
In his speech after the end of the summit, Erdogan said: "The incidents with a view to Finland and Sweden's applications for membership have shown Turkey's red lines on the subject of terrorism." Turkey will now carefully monitor whether the promises in the memorandum are actually fulfilled will, according to Erdogan.
"Sweden and Finland must do their part," Erdogan appealed to the Scandinavian countries.
He also claimed that Sweden had promised to return 73 "terrorists" to Turkey.
Ankara demands extradition of 33 "terrorist" suspects
Update from June 29, 12:22 p.m
.: Turkey is demanding the extradition of 33 “terrorist” suspects from Sweden and Finland.
The Turkish government is referring to the agreement it signed with the two countries, Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said, according to Turkish television station NTV.
Specifically, Bozdag named "six PKK and six Fetö members" in Finland and "ten Fetö members and eleven PKK members" in Sweden.
Ankara calls the movement of the Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, whom Erdogan blames for the attempted coup in 2016, as Feto.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan (front) is welcomed by Jens Stoltenberg to the 2022 NATO summit.
© Bernat Armangue/dpa
Foreign Minister Baerbock on the NATO application: the accession of Sweden and Finland will strengthen the alliance
Update from June 29, 8:18 a.m
.: Relief from Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock about the signals from Ankara: "Now the most important thing is that we make it clear: we stand together, we stand with each other," said the Green politician in the ZDF "Morgenmagazin". “.
The Green politician explained that Turkey's giving up its opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO would thwart Putin's plan to split the military alliance.
Both Nordic countries are strong liberal democracies and also have strong armies of their own, so their accession will significantly strengthen NATO, said Baerbock.
At the same time, however, they were "vulnerable" during this time and feared for their safety in view of the Ukraine war.
Germany is therefore committed to ensuring that there is no long transition period before accession.
NATO accession of Sweden and Finland: Turkey now supports the application
Update from June 28, 8:45 p.m .:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dropped the veto against Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
Turkey's state broadcaster TRT Haber reports that a memorandum has been signed, securing "serious gains" for Turkey.
According to the TRT report, Turkey has been given the following assurances, among others:
Cooperation against the PKK and its offshoots
Solidarity with Turkey in the "fight against terrorism in all its forms"
No support for the YPG and Gülen organization
No embargo on the defense industry, instead cooperation
Concrete steps in the repatriation of "terror suspects"
Preventing "terror propaganda" against Turkey
Establishment of a mechanism for reviewing the agreements
Nato breakthrough: Erdogan drops veto against Finland and Sweden
Update from June 28, 8:32 p.m .:
Turkey has given up its opposition to the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO.
Turkey will support the invitation to Finland and Sweden to join the alliance during the NATO summit in Madrid, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö announced on Tuesday.
A memorandum to this effect was signed after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Update from June 28, 8 p.m.:
The consultations on the Turkish blockade of NATO’s northern expansion to include Sweden and Finland are ongoing.
The meeting in Madrid had been paused and should then be continued, the Turkish President's Office announced on Twitter around two hours after it started.
The Office of the President initially reported that the talks had ended, but later deleted the corresponding tweet.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are taking part in the negotiations.
Turkey has so far blocked the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO.
She justifies this by saying that the two countries support "terrorist organizations" such as the banned Kurdish Workers' Party PKK and the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG - which both countries reject.
According to Finnish media reports, Erdogan, Niinistö and Andersson are working on a document aimed at addressing Turkey's concerns about terrorism and the issue of arms exports.
However, it is unclear to what extent this can ultimately pave the way to an end to the blockade.
According to its own account, Turkey is demanding not only the cessation of "support for terrorist organizations" but also the extradition of several people who are suspected of being terrorists in Turkey.
In addition, the lifting of an arms embargo is required.
Sweden and Finland in NATO: Niinistö is hopeful about the Erdogan talks
Update from June 27, 2:40 p.m .:
Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö was at least not pessimistic before the meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan: the pace of the negotiations had increased significantly, he said to Finnish journalists, according to the STT news agency.
Of course, the discussion with Erdogan will start impartially to see "where the shoe really pinches and whether something can be done about it".
In the meantime, it has become known that US President Joe Biden will also speak to Erdogan about Finland's and Sweden's NATO accession, which has been blocked by Turkey.
He may meet Biden "tonight or tomorrow" at the Madrid summit, Erdogan said on Tuesday.
The “most important topic” in the conversation with Biden is that of the F-16 fighter jets, Erdogan said.
In 2019, Turkey's decision to buy Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles sparked tensions between Ankara and Washington.
Washington therefore imposed sanctions on Ankara and put a contract with Turkey to buy the latest generation of US fighter jets (F-35) on hold.
Ankara then insisted on compensation and at least demanded the delivery of older generation fighter jets (F-16).
Biden had traveled to the NATO meeting in Madrid in the morning before the end of the G7 summit.
Erdogan showdown with Finland and Sweden: the schedule is set - the minister makes a meaningful statement
Update from June 27, 1:52 p.m .:
Apparently there is now a schedule for the NATO crisis talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.
According to information from the Finnish newspaper
Helsingin Sanomat
, the talks on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid will begin at 4 p.m.
Sweden's Foreign Minister Ann Linde, however, made a meaningful statement in advance.
"We have progressed so far that there are conditions to go further if there is the political will," she told the daily
Svenska Dagbladet
.
As always in negotiations, "nothing is clear until everything is clear".
One is prepared for positive steps, but the process could also take longer.
Before leaving on Tuesday morning, Erdogan had dampened expectations again.
He wanted to see action, not words, the Reuters news agency quoted him as saying.
According to the Swedish broadcaster SVT, the host of the summit, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, said at noon that a "sign of unity" was the goal - he simply wished NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who was also involved in the talks, "good luck".
Update from June 27, 7.30 p.m .:
At the NATO summit in Madrid, the leaders of Turkey, Sweden and Finland want to meet to discuss the Turkish blockade of the Scandinavian countries’ NATO accession.
Shortly before leaving for Madrid, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled that Ankara will stand firm.
"Tomorrow we will travel to the NATO summit in Madrid and will do what is necessary in line with the law and interests of our country," Erdogan said after a cabinet meeting.
According to the Turkish President, the aim is to describe the "hypocrisy surrounding terrorist organizations such as the PKK and YPG" with documents, information and images.
Sweden and Finland in NATO?
Alliance boss has bad premonitions before Erdogan talks
Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke on Tuesday with the leaders of the NATO accession countries Sweden and Finland.
© Vladimir Smirnov/Imago
Preliminary report from June 27:
Stockholm/Madrid – The dispute with Turkey over Sweden and Finland's NATO membership is entering a new round: the leaders of the three countries will meet in person on Tuesday.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finland's President Sauli Niinistö speak on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid.
In the midst of the Ukraine war, the date is likely to become even more delicate.
Because Ankara makes it clear in advance: Erdogan's government wants to stick to its demands.
The Foreign Minister from Stockholm is also skeptical - and even NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg did not want to "promise anything" on Monday, shortly after the alliance made an extremely offensive announcement.
Even apparently abstruse mind games could remain up to date.
Sweden and Finland want NATO: Erdogan advisor is already dampening hopes
Preparations began the day before the Erdogan meeting announced by Niinistö, among others.
Preliminary talks were held at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Monday.
Andersson even traveled to the event personally.
Above all, Sweden is the target of Turkish demands.
Among other things, Erdogan's government is demanding the extradition of several people regarded as supporters of the banned Kurdish Workers' Party PKK or the Gülen movement - and the classification of the Kurdish-Syrian militia YPG as terrorist.
The YPG was and is an ally of Western countries in the Syrian war.
All signs point to tough negotiations.
"Participating in this summit does not mean that we are resigning from our position," said Erdogan's adviser Ibrahim Kalin on Turkish broadcaster Haberturk.
"We're negotiating.
It has many phases," he added.
Sweden's Foreign Minister Ann Linde called the talks so far "intensive".
Andersson and Erdogan only spoke on Saturday – without clear results.
"I don't think we can go all the way, but there are clear ways to take concrete steps," said Linde, according to the Swedish public broadcaster SVT.
She indicated rapprochement on the subject of the PKK - there was agreement on this point.
"Therefore I believe that the Turkish side recognizes our seriousness in the discussions."
Erdogan under pressure: calculation behind NATO blockade for Sweden and Finland?
However, for weeks there has also been speculation about domestic political and power-strategic calculations behind Erdogan's demands.
The Turkish President is under pressure in view of high domestic inflation rates.
Tough announcements to the West, but also pressure on the PKK, are PR trumps for the presidential party, the AKP.
On the wish list could be less headwind, for example from the USA on human rights issues - or a recently faltering arms deal for US jets.
In this case, a cautious or even more resolute concession on the part of Sweden could remain fruitless.
However, US President Joe Biden and Erdogan may meet for talks at the NATO summit in Madrid;
that's what Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan indicated on Monday.
In any case, Biden will continue to travel to the NATO appointment after the G7 summit;
His wife Jill is already in Spain.
Sweden-Finland accession: Even Stoltenberg is skeptical – unorthodox ideas are circulating
Stoltenberg - who also invited to the Scandinavian-Turkish meeting on Tuesday - was also skeptical at first.
The goal is, of course, to “make progress”.
However, he could not make a promise, the NATO Secretary General said at a press conference on Monday.
It is too early to name concrete goals of the conversation.
In May, after years of fundamental rejection and weeks of debate over the Ukraine war, Sweden and Finland decided to apply to join NATO.
However, a unanimous vote by the NATO countries is required to start the membership process.
Turkey is currently refusing to give its consent.
An exclusion of a country is not provided for in the NATO statutes.
In view of this situation, unorthodox proposals have also appeared on the media agenda – such as security guarantees from the other 29 NATO countries for Sweden and Finland, instead of rapid accession for the two Scandinavian countries.
Nothing seems unthinkable at the moment.
However, a NATO rift would probably be grist for the mill of the one who triggered the current crisis: Vladimir Putin.
(
fn with material from AFP
)
