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NATO drags Europe into the US geostrategic struggle with China

2022-07-03T10:46:53.112Z


The Madrid summit, described as a historic milestone for the Alliance, has boosted preparations to face a rivalry with the Asian giant, which represents the greatest challenge of the 21st century


This week's Madrid summit has left several historic milestones in NATO's history, including the classification of Russia as a direct threat and the green light for Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance.

But it has also been the first significant step for NATO to join the struggle for world supremacy that the US maintains with China.

The turn towards the Pacific places NATO, and in turn Europe, in a position of growing rivalry with the Asian giant, a worrying prospect for Brussels and Berlin, as they are the largest trading partner of the European Union and Germany, but which is accepted as inevitable.

The hardening of NATO's position towards Beijing almost inevitably drags the EU along, because 21 —soon 23, with the planned Nordic enlargement— of the 27 community partners belong to the Alliance.

The European allies had resisted for months Washington's desire to face the geostrategic scenario on the horizon of the mid-21st century as a bipolar duel, but they have finally agreed to point to Beijing as "a challenge to our interests, security and values", according to the Strategic Concept of the Alliance approved in the Spanish capital.

The sources consulted indicate that the United States and the United Kingdom even defended a more forceful language against China, but in the end a compromise was chosen that would also satisfy the EU allies.

Lizza Bomassi, deputy director of the Carnegie Europe think tank, believes that "the term challenge is the correct definition because of the nuances with which NATO has to approach its relationship with China."

The analyst believes that the Alliance “cannot afford to be naive about its relationship with China, but it also has to be realistic because there are global issues that simply cannot be addressed without establishing a strategic agreement with the Chinese;

climate change is the most obvious example.”

The European Commission chaired by the German Ursula von der Leyen has tried since its inauguration at the end of 2019 to maintain its own relationship with Beijing, without allowing itself to be dragged into the geostrategic pulse between the US and China.

The head of community diplomacy, Josep Borrell, advocated a strategy dubbed the Sinatra doctrine, alluding to the famous song

My way

by

the American singer

.

This doctrine of a path of its own for the EU would be based, as Borrell has detailed, on cooperation with China on matters of global interest (from climate change to conflicts in Africa or the fight against covid-19) and, at the same time, time, a closed defense of European strategic sovereignty (with protection of key economic and technological sectors) and of its values ​​and interests.

But Russia's war against Ukraine has altered the global scene, with China clearly siding with Moscow, if not belligerently.

The alliance of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the Chinese, Xi Jinping, sealed a few days before the invasion of the Ukrainian territory, has weakened the European position in favor of maintaining a more or less cordial understanding with Beijing and has reinforced those in favor to toughen the response to Chinese challenges, as is the case of the US. Washington wants a firm position to dissuade Beijing, among other things, from the temptation to repeat in Taiwan the unilateral annexation of a territory committed by Russia in Ukraine.

"The change of attitude towards China was an inevitable step," says the socialist MEP Inmaculada Rodríguez-Piñero, a member of the European Parliament's international trade committee and one of the promoters of the trade defense instruments that the EU is adopting, in largely as protection against China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, this Friday during the virtual EU-China summit last April. OLIVIER MATTHYS / POOL (EFE)

Rodríguez-Piñero recalls that the EU has asked Beijing ad nauseam, the last time at the bilateral summit last April, to mediate with Moscow to put an end to the war in Ukraine or, at least, to open humanitarian corridors of evacuation.

"And it was impossible to convince them, China has maintained a position that they describe as neutral, but which is clearly in support of Russia and letting Putin do what he considers."

Inflection point

The analysts consulted agree that the meeting in the Spanish capital has been a turning point in the history of the Alliance, both because of the crucial moment in which it occurred —in the midst of Russia's war against Ukraine— and because of the decisions adopted during the two days of the summit (June 29 and 30).

“It is certainly the first time that so much was at stake with a war at NATO's doorstep,” says Carnegie Europe's Bomassi.

The analyst believes that "in 2021, after Afghanistan, NATO's legitimacy plummeted but, without a doubt, that trend has been reversed by the situation in Ukraine."

And she adds that Madrid "has been an essential summit, in which the strengthening of NATO and the sense of unity were palpable."

For Mina Alander, a researcher at the SWP center (German Institute for International and Security Affairs), "the application for entry from Finland and Sweden shows the seriousness of the changes that are taking place in Europe's security."

Alander stresses that the two candidates' significant air and naval forces "will increase deterrence and stabilize the situation in the Baltic Sea region, which has deteriorated in recent years due to Russia's growing assertiveness."

The Nordic enlargement, according to the analyst, also strengthens the Alliance in the Arctic, an area increasingly coveted by all geostrategic powers, including Russia and China.

"Russia has been building military infrastructure and capabilities over the last 10 years and has significant maritime nuclear capabilities on the Kola Peninsula," Alander warns.

brushes

The unity of the 30 allies against Russia does not prevent certain frictions regarding the treatment of China.

The Asian giant is only mentioned once in the final declaration of the summit.

And unlike the Strategic Concept, which accuses Beijing of “coercive policies” and opaquely building a military emporium, the statement describes China as “a systemic competitor” without directly attributing malevolent practices to it.

The Madrid summit had generated many expectations about NATO's position in the Pacific, especially since four countries in the region had been invited for the first time: Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

But in Bomassi's opinion, the meeting's agenda included such high-profile issues that "in a way, it has left Asian observers with more questions than answers about what it really means for Asia-Pacific to be considered a NATO partner."

The president of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, at the Madrid summit this week. YONHAP (EFE)

Jamie Shea, an analyst at the Friends of Europe think tank and former official spokesperson for the Alliance, believes that "NATO has taken great care to make it clear that Russia and China are two very different cases and therefore deserve very different treatment. ”.

Shea adds that "many European allies have a very important trade relationship with China and, in addition to preserving it, they do not want to push that country even further on the side of Russia."

China was in 2021 the main trading partner of the EU, with a volume of transactions worth 696,000 million euros.

China is the leading origin of EU imports, with 22%.

And the third largest market for community exports, with 10%.

For Germany, China was the first trading partner in 2021 for the sixth consecutive year, with a volume of 245.9 billion euros, ahead of trade with the Netherlands and the US.

But even Germany, the maximum defender of preserving intact commercial ties with the Asian giant as it did in its day with Moscow, has seen its position in favor of Beijing weakened after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the presence in the coalition government in Berlin. of a green party much less tolerant of human rights violations in China.

Before the invasion of Ukraine, Berlin ignored warnings from the EU and the US about its dependence on Russia for energy.

And far from reducing it, opting for diversification, it built with Moscow two gas pipelines through the Baltic with a capacity to import Russian gas of up to 110,000 million cubic meters per year, more than 25% of the annual gas consumption of the entire EU.

"In the first year of Economics, it is already studied that you cannot depend on a single provider," says MEP Rodríguez Piñero.

Some analysts anticipate the risk of making the same geostrategic mistake with China.

In the latest strategic foresight report from the European Commission, approved last Wednesday, it is warned that in several raw materials "the EU's dependence on third countries, including China, is even greater than that of Russia in fossil fuels [gas]. and oil]”.

The Commission document underlines that the production of the 27 EU partners only accounts for 4% of the world supply of essential materials for the digital sector, such as palladium, tantalum or neodymium.

And in essential materials for the transition to clean energy, such as lithium, China has 40% of the deposits and 45% of the facilities for its refining worldwide.

Rodríguez Piñero, however, is convinced that in the case of China there will be a more preventive reaction because "Germany, and Europe in general, have turned the ears on the wolf after what happened with Russia."

And he points out as an example the regulation agreed last Thursday so that the Commission can investigate companies from third countries that compete doped in the European market with state aid from their governments or the regulation agreed in March to close the European public bidding markets to companies from countries that do not offer an opening similar to the European ones.

"Three years ago it seemed impossible to approve these regulations," says the MEP.

“Now they have come out ahead with Germany among the driving countries.”

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Source: elparis

All news articles on 2022-07-03

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