Ukraine's 'boredom syndrome' highlights Putin's next steps

The Russian Ministry of Defense issued an announcement saying that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation completed the designated tasks on Snake Island and withdrew its troops there on the same day.

The Russian Defense Ministry stressed that this was a "goodwill move" by Russia and used it to show the international community that the Russian Federation has not blocked the United Nations' efforts to establish a humanitarian corridor to transport agricultural products out of Ukraine.

It is worth noting that the Russian Ministry of Defense first emphasized that the Russian army completed the designated task on Snake Island.

What exactly is this designated task?

Russia suddenly announced the withdrawal of the Russian troops occupying Snake Island, which made people a little surprised and surprised.

Although the reason is to provide access to Ukrainian grain exports, it may not seem so simple.

Russian military tactics need to be adjusted?

Snake Island was attacked and occupied on the first day of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine.

The strategic significance of Snake Island is quite important.

This is an important shipping route to the cities of Odessa, Nikolayev and Horsson.

Controlling Snake Island is tantamount to controlling the sea, land and air passages in the northwestern Black Sea and southern Ukraine.

The important thing is to strangle Odessa, the most important port in Ukraine.

Odessa is Ukraine's most important port, and once occupied and blocked, Ukraine becomes a landlocked country.

The important thing is that he corresponds to the Crimean peninsula from a distance.

Taking this place, Russia basically completely controls the passage from the Sea of ​​Azov to the Black Sea.

Anti-tank barricades are placed on the street in preparation for a possible Russian offensive in Odessa, Ukraine, on March 24.

(AP)

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the occupation of Snake Island is a "designated task", then this designated task is naturally the control of the Black Sea, that is, the blockade of the Port of Odessa.

In fact, it can be understood as a forward position to attack Odessa.

Now that "the designated task has been completed", can it be understood that the Russian army is likely to give up the attack on Odessa?

The Russian army captured Snake Island immediately, and launched an artillery attack on Odessa at the first time, which has continued to the present.

It was generally believed that Russia must win Odessa.

Now, the Russian side has suddenly announced that it has given up control of Snake Island, apparently giving up its intention to attack Odessa.

This shows that the Russian army's strategy and tactics in the next stage need to be adjusted significantly.

Ukraine's "Bored Syndrome" Is Emerging

A key question is why the Russian military needs to make major adjustments to its strategy and tactics in the next stage.

We must pay attention to the occurrence of a phenomenon - the Ukrainian "boredom syndrome" is emerging.

This is happening to all parties involved.

Zelensky has firmly stated that he wants to regain sovereignty through war, but it is still a question how long Ukraine's current situation can last.

Zelian's latest statement is to try to end the conflict before winter comes.

This shows that he has realized that this harsh winter is likely to be untenable in Europe.

Naturally, it is possible to change the current position and attitude.

This at least shows that Zelensky's confidence is also being shaken.

In fact, Zelensky has been shouting to Western countries. He often says things like "the idea that the Ukrainian people belong to the European family is not just empty talk." But in fact, he is also very clear that in addition to sanctions, some In addition to unpopular weapons assistance, Western countries are weighing their interests with more practical actions.

Ukraine can actually be sacrificed at any time.

From the first visit of the leaders of Germany, France and Italy to Kyiv, but Zelensky did not give them a good face, it can be seen that Zelensky knew the situation in Ukraine well.

Zelensky was tired of calling for help.

Zelensky is tired of going around asking Europe and the United States for help.

(Getty)

On the other hand, the G7 summit has just ended, and the statement emphasized support for Ukraine and the continuation of sanctions against Russia.

In NATO's new strategic concept, Russia has been clearly defined as the biggest and most direct security threat.

This means that the confrontation between Russia and the United States and Europe will be a long-term process.

This is not good news for Russia.

In addition, Turkey betrayed Russia at the last minute and agreed to join NATO between Finland and Switzerland.

NATO also formally issued an invitation to Fenrir to join the treaty.

NATO's eastward expansion is clearly a reality.

Russia could then face a broader military confrontation with NATO.

At present, the Russian army can still afford to consume and can control the initiative and advantages of the battlefield.

However, if the fight continues for a long time, the consumption of the Russian army will also increase, and the Russian economy will be unsustainable.

One day you will not be able to afford it.

This is also the reality.

For Putin, there are many variables after a long delay, and internal and external variables will multiply. Even if he has strong control, there will be surprises.

In addition, although the Ukraine battle is basically under control, whether it is Zelensky or the situation in Europe and the United States, it is more or less beyond Putin's estimates.

This front, repeated over and over again, is not easy, and Russia has also paid a heavy price for it.

For Putin, it makes sense to have Ukraine's "boredom syndrome".

For Europe and the United States, let alone.

There are still obvious differences or disagreements between the United States and Europe in dealing with the Ukraine crisis.

The European powers' efforts to seek an end to the conflict as soon as possible have had too great an impact on Europe by any measure.

European countries have long been "tired", but cannot be tied to the "chariot".

For European countries, Ukraine's "boring syndrome" has become "terminally ill".

Of course, the United States also intends to support Ukraine in weakening Russia through a protracted war, but frankly, the United States just hopes to be a wolves with empty gloves.

Putin's next steps

Putin's stated goal of action is to demilitarize, de-Nazify and maintain neutrality in Ukraine.

At the same time, it promises the independence of the Donbas region and Russia's claim to Crimea.

From the perspective of military deployment, the current focus is on the liberation of Donbass.

That is, the last Lisichansk and Slavyansk areas in this area must be won.

In other words, the goals of Russian military operations have been basically achieved, and it is indeed time to consider cessation of military operations.

At present, Kherson, Zaporozhye and other places have all expressed their intention to merge into Russia after independence.

The more areas the Russians capture, the more such situations will arise.

And this is probably unacceptable to the international community.

This is likely to plunge Russia into serious isolation.

Instead, it makes Putin in a difficult position.

Putin does not necessarily want to corner Ukraine.

Naturally, it is hoped that negotiations can be resumed as soon as possible to solve the problem.

The current focus of the Russian army is to liberate the Donbass, and the signal to give up the attack on Odessa has been released.

(Getty)

Although the Russian army is still carrying out artillery strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine, the goal is not necessarily to expand the occupied area indefinitely.

Instead, it was intended to destroy the morale of the Ukrainian army and consume Zelensky's will.

Abandoning the attack on Odessa may be a sensible choice.

Importantly, the move could also send a message to Europe that it wants to end the conflict as soon as possible.

If Russia continues to send signals to end the conflict, and the Ukrainian side still insists on fighting for a long time, the risk of public opinion may change.

In particular, the European powers will definitely increase their efforts to compel Ukraine to negotiate.

However, there may be another possibility, which is to lure the enemy.

The withdrawal of the Russian army from Snake Island can easily be regarded as the Russian army cannot hold it any longer.

This may stimulate the Ukrainian army to counter-offensive.

Only when the Ukrainian army marches forward in a big way will it be more conducive to the Russian army's attack and elimination.

Although Snake Island has an important strategic position, the significance of the Russian army's control is far greater than that of the Ukrainian army.

It is impossible for the Ukrainian army to use this important place to fight back against the Russian army, but the Russian army can easily retake it at any time.

Therefore, the Russian army's active withdrawal from Snake Island is likely to be a strategic or tactical adjustment.

It is to make new preparations for the third phase of the campaign.

In short, the sudden announcement of the Russian army's withdrawal from Snake Island, which had been fiercely contested before, must have released a positive goodwill to the outside world.

This indirectly reflects that Russia is unwilling to fight for a long time to increase its own consumption.

It is likely to mean that the Russian army will give up the attack and occupation of Odessa.

While providing international humanitarian access to the international community, it is also taking Ukraine into one army.

If you want to talk about being blocked in international waters, it will increase the tiredness of Western Ukraine.

If Zelensky mistakenly believes that the Russian army can't fight and strengthens the counterattack, he is likely to fall into Russia's trick to lure the enemy.

If necessary, the Russian army can reoccupy it at any time.

It depends on how the Uzbek side acts.

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