Summer wave rolls over Bavaria: Experts warn of a high number of unreported cases - "Corona will not be over in autumn"
Created: 07/04/2022Updated: 07/04/2022 08:16
By: Dominik Goettler
The summer wave rolls over Bavaria - but © Frank Hoermann / Imago Images
How do experts assess the current corona summer wave in Bavaria?
Who is hit hardest?
And how will autumn be?
The most important answers to the current pandemic development.
Munich – The corona restrictions have largely been lifted, people are enjoying their summer.
But at the same time, with the new Omicron sub-variant BA.5, the number of cases is increasing again - Germany is in the middle of a corona summer wave.
What is the current situation in the hospitals?
And what about the announced new vaccines?
An overview.
The current corona numbers in Bavaria: Attention dark figures!
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) recorded a 7-day incidence of 665 (Bavaria: 637) yesterday.
For comparison: the peak of the pandemic was March 26 with an incidence of 1758. In the meantime, the incidence fell to around 200 in May, and the numbers have been rising again since June.
Experts point out that the number of unreported cases is likely to be high.
Because only positive PCR tests are included in the statistics of the RKI.
However, it can be assumed that many people will simply isolate themselves if they have a positive rapid test without an additional PCR test.
In reality, the incidence should therefore be higher than indicated by the RKI.
(By the way: Our Bayern newsletter informs you about all the important stories from Bavaria. Register here.)
The number of patients is increasing: the situation in the clinics
The occupancy of corona patients in the clinics is increasing again – albeit well below the level from the winter.
In Bavaria, the total number of patients rose again last week to more than 2000 people - 150 of them were in the intensive care unit.
For comparison: In the high phase in mid-March there were 5000 patients (470 intensive care).
Around Pentecost the number was 1200 (120 intensive).
"A large proportion of the patients come to the clinic with Covid as a secondary diagnosis, but unfortunately some also explicitly because of Corona," says Munich Clinic boss Axel Fischer.
For the clinic staff, the effort is high either way - because every Covid patient has to be isolated.
"The lack of staff is still a permanent problem," says Eduard Fuchshuber from the Bavarian Hospital Society.
Now there are more failures.
Even if hardly any planned operations have to be postponed at the moment: "We are concerned that Corona seems to be over in many minds," says Fuchshuber.
"Caution is lost."
The risk groups: who is seriously ill?
The RKI, together with the health insurance companies, has examined which previous illnesses favor a severe course of Covid 19.
Leukemia patients or people with tumors or dementia are particularly at risk.
The average age of deaths with a corona infection has changed only slightly since the beginning of the pandemic: it was between 78 and 84 years in all waves.
A sample in the Munich clinic: At the end of last week there were 87 Covid patients there, 9 of them in the intensive care unit.
"It mainly affects the elderly," says Clemens Wendtner, chief physician of infectiology.
Half of the patients are older than 75, three quarters older than 65. About half of the patients had a booster vaccination.
"The younger people are usually hospitalized for reasons," says Wendtner,
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From BA.1 to BA.5: The dominant corona variants in Bavaria
The pathogen BA.5, an omicron subline, is currently predominant in Bavaria.
According to a random sample by the RKI, the proportion of this variant was around 66 percent this week.
Virologist Christian Drosten says: “The BA.5 variant is simply very transmissible, and at the same time people lose their transmission protection from the last vaccination.” Drosten fears that the number of hospitalizations and deaths will increase again as a result.
"Overall, however, far fewer people will become seriously ill and die than in 2021."
Share of the individual variants in new infections in Germany.
© AFP
New vaccines: what's next?
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) recently spoke out in favor of a new vaccination campaign before winter.
Vaccine developers such as Biontech and Moderna are currently working on adapted vaccines for the omicron variant, approval is not expected until September at the earliest.
Both manufacturers recently presented data showing that the adapted vaccines also stimulate an efficient immune response against the currently dominant virus types.
But there are also doubts among experts: "Unfortunately, the new vaccines miss the target because development began with the BA.1 variant, which is no longer dominant," says Clemens Wendtner from the Munich Clinic.
"That's why I think it makes sense not to wait for the new vaccines and to start boosting older and vulnerable people now,
before the wave has really built up.
Wendtner thinks it makes sense to also make the recommendation for people over 60 years of age.
Who else gets free trials?
The federal government has abolished the free tests for everyone.
Because a negative test is still mandatory for access to many nursing homes or clinics, visitors to these facilities continue to receive the tests without additional payment.
According to the Ministry of Health, a signed self-declaration will be sufficient in Bavaria to prove entitlement to the test station.
Confirmation from the clinic or home is not necessary.
Medication: When does Paxlovid help?
There are very convincing drugs for Covid patients that are used far too little, said Karl Lauterbach recently.
For example, the drug Paxlovid has been on the market in Germany since February.
"We already use Paxlovid in very vulnerable patients," explains Clemens Wendtner from the Munich Clinic.
However, the drug must be administered within five days of the onset of symptoms - and it can only be prescribed to PCR-positive patients.
Wendtner says: "It would be better to have the drug in the medicine cabinet at home in advance, so that you can react if the rapid test is positive."
Looking into the crystal ball: How will autumn be?
Hardly any virologist dares to predict the infection situation in autumn.
The Federal Government's Corona Expert Council has designed three possible scenarios.
In the best-case scenario, a harmless virus variant that does not require any far-reaching protective mechanisms dominates.
Loss of work and burdens in the healthcare system are still to be expected – also because of the influenza.
The "baseline scenario", on the other hand, assumes a constant corona disease burden - and could again require "widespread measures" such as masks and distance indoors.
In the worst case, a new, more aggressive virus variant dominates, which even affects those who have been fully vaccinated.
According to the expert council, general protective measures would then be necessary until spring.
For Axel Fischer from the Munich Clinic, one thing is clear:
