Since the Ukrainian army withdrew on July 2 from Lysychansk, the last Ukrainian-controlled city in the Lugansk region, Russia has officially taken control of the entire territory of Lugansk, including the Donbas region. The Ukrainian-controlled area of Donetsk, another state, will be the next target.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the victory of the Russian army on July 4, and the troops participating in the war in Luhansk should have a good rest to enhance their combat power.
On the same day, after the withdrawal of Russian troops, Ukrainian troops landed on Snake Island, a key island on the western edge of the Black Sea, and raised the Ukrainian flag on the island again.
Between gains and losses, where will the war in Ukraine go?
(1) Donetsk's advancing speed
First of all, after winning Lisichansk, the Russian army in Luhansk and the Russian army in Russian-controlled Donetsk will advance south and west respectively as expected, heading towards Ukraine-controlled Donetsk. several key strongholds to advance.
The first will be Slovyansk, northwest of Donetsk, and Bakhmut, a key fortress in northern Donetsk.
Slavyansk had been under attack by Russian forces from Izyum and Lyman to the south; if Slavyansk fell, another city immediately south of Kramatorsk ( Kramatorsk) will be under immediate threat.
Bakhmut has been facing the pressure of the Russian army in the east. The Russian frontline is only about 10 kilometers away from its city center; after the fall of Lisichansk, the Russian army will also attempt to insert Bakhmu from the north along the T1302 lane that runs through the two cities. special.
The three cities that are under threat in Donetsk are marked in blue by place names.
The picture shows the battle situation on July 4.
(ISW)
When Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut all fell into Russian hands, the Ukrainian side all lost control of cities in Donetsk Oblast.
The most noteworthy is the speed of the Russian army's advance in Donetsk against the above three cities.
Previously, it took the Russian army more than two months to capture the two sister cities in southern Luhansk, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. Army entanglement.
Both sides reported heavy losses.
Will this slow war of attrition actually turn around in the Donetsk war?
Slow consumption, judging from the current situation, is beneficial to Russia.
It is said that the phrase "quantity itself is also quality" came from Stalin in World War II, and it is still true in the actions of the Russian army to this day.
The firepower of the Russian side, which is multiples of the Ukrainian side, has been slowly destroying the Ukrainian side's armaments and personnel.
Although the Russian military has consumed a lot of its own, Putin still has not implemented the mobilization of the whole people like Ukraine. He only raised the age of joining the army and passed a decree (on June 30) that can force companies to supply military supplies.
Relatively speaking, news from British intelligence agencies also pointed out that the Ukrainian side suffered heavy casualties and that soldiers escaped.
This shows Russia's advantage in the war of attrition.
Donetsk will remain the focus of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the future.
If the war is dominated by the slow advance of the Russian army as before, the defeat of the Ukrainian army will be a matter of time.
If the advance of the Russian army increases rapidly, it may mean that the Ukrainian army can no longer face the contusion of the war of attrition, and the remaining forces should be retreated or moved to more important fronts, or it may be a signal that the Ukrainian side wants to cede territory and seek peace. .
On the contrary, if the Russian and Ukrainian sides fall into a stagnant stalemate, it will be a clear signal for the Ukrainian side to reverse its defeat.
The #Ukrainian flag is on Snake Island. #Ukraine's state symbols will be returned to every corner of our country. #SlavaUkraini #GloryToUkraine #StandWithUkraine️ pic.twitter.com/ik76qOcfOf
— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) July 4, 2022
(2) Kherson's Ukrainian Counterattack
Secondly, when the outside world's attention is focused on the Donbas region, in fact, the Ukrainian army has been making a multi-party counterattack against the Russian army on the southern front.
The withdrawal of the Russian army from Snake Island was one of the results of this series of Ukrainian counterattacks.
Kherson, who is guarding the mouth of the Black Sea, is the key.
Like Snake Island, Kherson is a strategic location that was captured by the Russian army at the beginning of the war. In this respect, it is the only state capital that the Russian army has won after the war, and it is the Russian army who cut Ukraine from north to south. The only stronghold on the west bank of the Dnieper River.
Some military analysts believe that the Battle of Donbass has important symbolic significance to both Russia and Ukraine, but whoever controls Kherson is more important to the entire war than Donbass.
For two months, the two sides have been arguing with Xiaohe on the front line in the suburban towns of Kherson.
The Russian side continued to build fortifications, and the Ukrainian army began to use weapons such as the US-made M777 howitzer to attack.
The Economist recently analyzed that Ukraine is prioritizing the recapture of Kherson, citing the local Ukrainian army as saying that "the next week or two will be more interesting."
If the Ukrainian side uses the "Himas" multiple rocket system (HIMARS), which has a longer range and higher mobility, there may indeed be loopholes in Russia's hard defense.
If the front line of Kherson changes, it will affect the overall situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
If the Ukrainian side succeeds in advancing, the Russian army may have to temporarily abandon the Donbas war, because the loss of Kherson may threaten the security of Crimea.
On the contrary, if the Russian side succeeds in holding on, and even leads to heavy losses for the Ukrainian side, the Russian army in Kherson will be able to use it as a bridgehead for its invasion of western Ukraine in the future.
(3) Changes in Kharkiv
Third, the front line of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, which was surrounded by Russia on three sides in February, may also change again.
This large city in northeastern Ukraine is less than 40 kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border. It is definitely an important stronghold in Russia that can be contested by powerful firepower.
Since the concentration of Russian troops in Donbass in April, although the Ukrainian side has pushed the Russian troops to a location about 25 kilometers away from the city center, the Russian troops have continued to bombard Kharkiv and destroyed more than 2,000 buildings. , killed more than 900 people.
The "Guardian" visited the front line of the city a week ago, and many officers also said that according to the information they received, the Russian army will launch a new offensive in the near future.
On the other hand, deploying such fire-launch systems in Kharkiv became the obvious choice as the "Haymas" began to enter the Ukrainian battlefield.
The "Haimas" deployed in Kharkov will be able to directly threaten Russia's land supply route from north to south to support Izum on the Udon Slavyansk frontline, as well as attack key points for war supplies and attacks. The Russian city of Belgorod - which has been attacked by the Ukrainian side for refusing to admit responsibility.
The development of the two aforementioned wars around Kharkov is worth noting.
(4) Ukrainian grain exports
Fourth, when the Russian-Ukrainian war clearly entered a protracted war, Ukraine's grain exports became an issue that could affect the direction of the war.
On the one hand, the obstruction of Ukraine's grain exports has put Ukraine under international pressure from countries with tight food supplies, demanding that Ukraine cede territory as soon as possible so that the war can be stopped quickly.
On the other hand, with food exports accounting for nearly 15% of Ukraine’s nominal GDP (2021 figures), with its economy expected to contract by 45% this year and international food prices soaring, maintaining food exports will be the lifeblood of Ukraine’s economy ——Without economic support, it will be difficult for Ukraine to continue fighting for a long time under the pressure of people's livelihood.
(Ukraine is facing 18 percent inflation and its government foreign-exchange reserves have continued to decline amid central bank war bond buying.)
At the same time, if the grain export problem cannot be properly resolved within this month, there will be insufficient grain storage for the next harvest, which will hit Ukraine's future grain production for a longer period of time.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 4 that he was negotiating with Turkey and the United Nations on the export of grain from the port; Turkey also reportedly detained a Russian vessel accused by Ukraine of smuggling grain; With the Snake Island falling back into Ukraine's hands, Ukraine should have more confidence in clearing the mines and allowing food to be exported through the Black Sea again.
The Romanian port of Constanta (Constanța) is vying to become the main port for Ukrainian grain exports.
(AP)
However, according to many estimates, the Ukrainian side may not dare to occupy the Snake Island for a long time due to the Russian navy's control over the Black Sea.
Under the influence of distrust of the Russian army, unless a third-party military force intervenes to escort, the Ukrainian side is not necessarily willing to clear the mines.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently mentioned the possibility of transporting grain from the Danube, which is directly opposite Snake Island; and Europe and the United States are also supporting the strengthening of Ukraine's ability to handle grain transport by land via Poland.
Whether the grain export problem can be solved will determine whether Ukraine has the capital to continue the war.
(5) Can Western aid be sustainable?
In the end, whether Ukraine can persevere depends on the support of Western countries.
One is financial support.
At the recent Ukrainian reconstruction conference in the southern Swiss city of Lugano, the Ukrainian side proposed a reconstruction plan of up to US$750 billion, which is divided into three parts. The first is immediate emergency humanitarian relief, including reconstruction of water supply. and bridge facilities; followed by the reopening of community facilities such as schools and hospitals from 2023 to 2025; and finally the long-term economic modernization vision from 2026 to 2032.
Currently, Ukraine has a monthly deficit of $5 billion.
When grain exports are blocked, this number urgently needs continuous support from the West.
On the other hand is military aid.
Ukraine is switching to NATO-style weapons and ammunition while fighting on the battlefield at a time when Soviet-style weapons and ammunition are rapidly running out.
This will make Ukraine increasingly dependent on Western military aid.
After last week's G7 and NATO summits, Western countries are still eager to aid Ukraine.
But after inflation and the normalization of the Ukrainian war, whether this can be maintained will be a long-term question; at the same time, since the West, including the United States, does not expect a war of attrition at this moment, whether its arms production capacity can be sufficient to supply Attrition on the Ukrainian battlefield is also a problem - for example, the more than 7,000 Javelin anti-armor missiles supplied by the United States to Ukraine already account for one-third of the US inventory, while the US produces only 2,100 Javelins per year.
A senior NATO official told The Wall Street Journal: “A lesson from Ukraine is that we need to have more insight and transparency about our inventories. What you can use in days or hours can take several hours. Stars can be resupplied, and it will take years to build.”
Western aid to Ukraine seems to have two crises of inaction and impossibility.
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