By Yuliya TalmazanNBC
News
The last Ukrainian stronghold in a key eastern province is now in Russian hands.
Taking full control of the Luhansk region on Sunday may represent not only a major public relations boost for Russian President Vladimir Putin, but also a major battlefield breakthrough that could lay the groundwork for decisive battles to come. they are coming
Ukraine has acknowledged that its troops withdrew from the city of Lisichansk, just over a week after withdrawing from Sievierodonetsk, its twin city.
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Ukraine said the pullout was an effort to preserve its troops as it faces a long war of attrition.
The Kremlin called the conquest of the city a great victory.
The fall of Lisichansk dominated Russian state media headlines on Monday, as Putin held a rare televised face-to-face with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to thank Ukrainian troops and separatist forces for capturing Luhansk.
It was celebrated in propaganda videos from the battlefield and in photos taken by Russian cosmonauts in space.
Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's briefing during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, July 4, 2022.Mikhail Klimentyev/AP
Kremlin forces were already looking to push further into neighboring Donetsk, which together with Luhansk makes up the industrial region known as Donbas, so attention was turning to what the capture could mean for the future of the Russian invasion.
“The loss of Sievierodonetsk and Lisichansk is significant, but the Ukrainian decision to withdraw buys kyiv time and avoids human losses that would be more critical than the loss of two cities,” said geopolitical and security analyst Michael A. Horowitz. head of intelligence at the consulting firm Le Beck.
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"On the ground, the war is still far from being won," he added.
The fall of Lisichansk gives Russia control of half of the industrial heartland to the east, where their war has been focused for months.
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But even if Moscow sees it that way, Ukraine's withdrawal is not yet a strategic breakthrough for Russia, according to Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank.
Melvin added that for this claim to be true, it would be necessary for there to be evidence of the collapse of the Ukrainian defenses and for Russia to move rapidly into Ukraine.
It also comes as Ukraine has been making progress elsewhere, slowly building a counteroffensive in the occupied south and forcing the Russians to abandon a key Black Sea outpost last week.
"But Ukraine has lost some territory and will have to make sure that Russia is not able to make a significant push," he said.
What can happen now?
Taking over all of Donbas, a mineral-rich region that Kremlin-backed separatists partially controlled before the invasion, has been a Russian goal for months.
Until recent weeks, his forces have been gaining ground after an artillery bombardment has devastated towns and cities in the region.
But Putin has now secured perhaps his most important military achievement in Ukraine to date, after a series of embarrassing setbacks early in the war.
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It is a victory Putin can "sell" domestically to show that what the Kremlin calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine is making progress despite reports of heavy battlefield casualties, according to Horowitz.
It also gives Putin breathing room to decide what to do next and to determine whether he wants to settle for taking all of Donbas or pursue a long and drawn out war with broader goals.
Russian troops including soldiers from a Chechen regiment wave Russian and Chechen flags as they pose for a photo in front of a destroyed building in Lysychansk, Ukraine, Saturday, July 2, 2022. Ramzan Kadyrov's official Telegram channel via AP
Observers say capturing Luhansk will give Moscow a stronger base from which to launch attacks deeper into neighboring Donetsk province.
"Luhansk is gone, but Russia doesn't get Donbas until it takes the rest of Donetsk," said Michael Clarke, a professor of war studies at King's College London.
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Ukrainian troops are likely to fall back to the Donetsk cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, where the next battle will take place, Clarke said, striking deeper behind Russian lines with Western-supplied weapons to target Russian fuel depots. and ammunition.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based military think tank, said Russian forces would likely advance next on the town of Siversk, just 15 miles (24 kilometers) west of Lysychansk.
He also said that the Russians could launch more significant attacks against the cities of Slovyansk or Bakhmut.
On Sunday, heavy shelling in Slovyansk killed six people, which could indicate that it is Russia's next target.
However, Putin suggested that the troops who fought in Lisichansk could take a strategic break to rest and "increase their combat capabilities", the state news agency Tass reported.
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But capturing the rest of Donetsk will be more daunting.
"By mid-March, Russia already controlled up to 85% of Luhansk, while today it only controls about half of Donetsk, and capturing the last 15% of Luhansk took months."
That means Western arms supplies will be key.
"Ukraine needs a constant flow of weapons and ammunition both to be able to stop the Russian advance and to seize the initiative," Horowitz explained.
"This has become an artillery-centric war, as both sides cannot afford to launch any kind of offensive without artillery shelling first," he added.
