25th anniversary of return. Democracy | The Worries of Two Generations of Democrats: Where Will Hong Kong-Style Democratic Universal Suffrage Go?

The sixth term of the SAR government was officially inaugurated, and universal suffrage became an unknown agenda.

President Xi Jinping met with the new Chief Executive, Li Jiachao, who went to Beijing to accept the letter of appointment two months ago. He mentioned that the new electoral system is a political and democratic system that conforms to the "one country, two systems" principle and the actual and development needs of Hong Kong. Many interpretations after the event pointed out that this means that the political reform will not be restarted in a short period of time, and the threshold for the election of the chief executive will not be lowered.

Looking back at the 25 years since the return of the country, why does the original "step-by-step" pace of democracy seem to be stagnant now?

In this regard, the chairman of the Democratic Party Luo Jianxi and the veteran Li Huaming have different opinions and have different imaginations about the practice of democracy.

The rapid democratization of Hong Kong and Britain lays the groundwork

In an interview with "Hong Kong 01", Democratic Party veteran Li Huaming mentioned the moderate political group "Confluence Point" he belonged to during the British Hong Kong era: "At that time (we) supported the return, opposed British colonial rule, and supported the Chinese government."

At that time, the meeting point, with the "return of democracy" as the platform, had feelings of patriotism and love for Hong Kong, affirmed the return of Hong Kong to the motherland, and regarded it as an opportunity for the development of democracy.

However, in addition to those intellectuals who are concerned about the country and the people, there are also many people in society who are holding the mentality of "democracy against the Communist Party" and "democracy against the Communist Party" to face the fact that China has resumed its exercise of sovereignty over Hong Kong. Affected by the lack of national education during the colonial period, there is also a yearning and longing for Western democracy.

After the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, the British Hong Kong government suddenly and rapidly promoted the process of democratization of Hong Kong. Political participants with different attitudes towards the "return" naturally have different expectations for the "democratic process".

For example, during the revision of the Legislative Council (Election Provisions) (Amendment) Bill 1994 by the former Legislative Council, the Chairman of the "Hong Kong Democratic Alliance" Li Zhuming expressed his support for the "last Hong Kong Governor" Patten's political reform plan in the second reading debate. "Democracy" and "high degree of autonomy" in the words of pro-democracy supporters mean "all internal affairs are not controlled by the Beijing government"; while the then-independent and democratic MP Emily Lau proposed the amendment to the Legislative Council to fully implement direct elections (the "95 Direct Election Plan") , and was regarded as an opportunity to achieve universal parliamentary suffrage before the handover, but the amendment was eventually rejected by one vote because four members of Huidian, including Li Huaming, abstained from voting.

Twenty-eight years later, Li Huaming looked back on the decision at that time. On the one hand, he accused the British government of fighting against China through political maneuvers such as rapid democratization before withdrawing from Hong Kong. (China) is our "mother". How can you do anything before the handover without the consent and support of the Chinese government. We did not become independent in 1997, but handed back the governance of Hong Kong to China and became the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region ."

In fact, under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong's democratic process cannot be separated from the support of the central government, the promotion of the SAR government, and the participation of different parties.

In particular, the pan-democrats who can mobilize more than half of the electorate will play an even more important role.

However, in the 25 years since the return, the relationship between the pan-democratic faction and the central government has gone from negotiation to rupture.

In 1994, independent democratic MP Emily Lau put forward the "1995 Direct Election Plan" in the Legislative Council, which was regarded as an opportunity to achieve "double universal suffrage" before the handover, and was eventually rejected.

(Information Services Department)

Central pan-democrats actively negotiate to promote political reform

The chairman of the Democratic Party, Luo Jianxi, told the "Hong Kong 01" reporter that the Democratic Party has always understood that if we want to promote democracy in Hong Kong, the relationship between the pan-democrats and the central government cannot be broken down. "This is the bottom line, and we never want to do that."

Luo Jianxi recalled that before the political reform in 2010, although the central government, the pan-democrats and the establishment had differences on the timetable and method of implementing universal suffrage, and there were gaps in details such as whether the functional constituencies of the Legislative Council should be completely abolished, There is still room for negotiation, "such as a five-year, ten-year timetable for universal suffrage," but these spaces have since narrowed.

Why is "the space is getting narrower"?

Most of the pan-democrats believe that the key lies in the attitude of the central government, but there are also some political scholars, such as Yan Xiaojun, an associate professor of the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, who pointed out in the book "Governance and Chaos in Hong Kong: Political Imagination in 2047" published in 2015, The size of Hong Kong's autonomous space is directly determined by the degree of political trust between the central government and Hong Kong. The two are directly proportional to each other. Therefore, Hong Kong should be more active and seize the opportunity.

The question is, what is "positive action"?

From the perspective of the pan-democrats, the tireless chanting of the slogan of universal suffrage may be a positive; but perhaps in the eyes of the central government, pragmatic political reform, rational consultation, and timely compromise are positive.

In April 2010, the government submitted to the Legislative Council the "2012 Proposal on the Method for the Selection of the Chief Executive and the Legislative Council": to increase the number of the 800-member Election Committee to 1,200; Direct elections for district councils and five-seat district council functional constituency seats, the latter of which are elected by elected district councillors.

This plan can be said to be an improved version of the 2005 political reform plan, which was criticized by pan-democrats for being "lack of sincerity". It had a low chance of being passed because the bill had to be supported by two-thirds of the Legislative Council (ie 40 seats), but at that time the entire The establishment has only 36 votes.

At such an important juncture, the Democratic Party, which holds 8 votes for popular suffrage, has become the "key minority" most likely to promote political reform.

Therefore, in May of the same year, three core members of the Democratic Party, He Junren, Emily Lau, and Zhang Wenguang, met with Li Gang, deputy director of the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government, and proposed an improvement plan. Voters in the functional constituencies voted. Later, with the approval of the central government, the SAR government accepted the Democratic Party's proposal and established five "super district council" seats.

On the eve of the Legislative Council vote, the Democratic Party held a special general meeting as usual. Although founding chairman Lee Chu-ming strongly opposed it, most party members still agreed to support the political reform.

On June 25, 2010, the Legislative Council passed the plan with nearly 80% of the votes in favor, making it the only successful political reform after the handover.

Three core members of the Democratic Party, He Junren, Emily Lau, and Zhang Wenguang, met with Li Gang, deputy director of the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government, on the "political reform plan" and proposed improvement plans.

Later, after some tug-of-war, the newly added seats of the 5 functional constituencies were successfully converted into "Super District Council" seats.

(file picture)

Expectations to keep communicating unfortunately backfired

This "successful fight" is a kind of "positive action" that cannot be separated from the negotiation and compromise between the Democratic Party and the Central Committee.

Luo Jianxi agrees that success requires positive interaction between the two parties: "We said the right to vote, the right to be elected, and the right to vote. At that time, the super district council opened the right to vote, but the other two parts did not do so; but at the same time, the concession at that time was not (Democratic Party) It is unilateral, but the result of negotiation between the two parties (the Central Committee and the Democratic Party).” He described the relationship between the Central Committee and the Democratic Party at that time as not “one-piece”, that is, it was not in a state of irreconciliation and no room for communication; although the Democratic Party suffered radicalization afterwards The forces criticized, but the party still hopes to maintain constant discussions with the central government to continue to expand the direct election component, "so that 'Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong' and 'a high degree of autonomy' can be selected by Hong Kong citizens through elections, and then make a decision."

However, after the political reform plan was passed in 2010, the relationship between traditional pan-democrats and the central government did not go further.

In an exclusive interview with Hong Kong 01, Zhang Bingliang, the founding vice chairman of the Democratic Party and the chair professor of public administration at the Education University of Hong Kong, who has quit the party, attributed the obstruction of the relationship between the two parties and the democratic movement to two points: First, the Democratic Party’s economic success in 2010 After the year, they are unable to "compromise" and lose the dominance of the democratic movement, so they can only be led away by radical forces; second, the traditional pan-democrats miscalculated the situation and allowed the radicals to launch occupation actions in 2014, tacitly accepting the "occupation" Showdown-style” political coercion forces Beijing to make concessions, but this undoubtedly constitutes a “big taboo among taboos”.

On August 31, 2014, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the "Decision of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on the issue of universal suffrage for the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in 2017 and the method for the formation of the Legislative Council in 2016" ("Decision 8.31"), which stipulated that the Nomination Committee The number of people must be in the same proportions as the four major sectors of the current Election Committee, and maintain a composition of 1,200 people; no citizen nomination and nomination by political parties are implemented; candidates for the chief executive must obtain the support of more than half of the nomination committee, and no more than two to three candidates can be selected.

The decision is a far cry from the "three-track" plan proposed by major traditional pan-democratic and concern groups for the 2017 chief executive election. They had hoped that candidates could obtain nominations through three methods, including citizen nomination, party nomination, and nomination committee. Any one, and confirmed by the nomination committee, there is no upper limit for candidates; and the "8.31 decision" can be said to have directly shattered their dream of universal suffrage with a low threshold, and some people turned to express their dissatisfaction in a more drastic way.

On September 22 and 26 of the same year, the Hong Kong Federation of Post-Secondary Students and Scholarism (Shuangxue) launched strike actions successively. After the latter was over, Shuangxue suddenly rushed into the roundabout in the east wing of the Government Headquarters, claiming to "retake the" Civic Square. ’”, and the arrest of student leaders such as Huang Zhifeng, the convener of the post-Scholarism movement, aroused a large number of citizens to show their solidarity.

In the early morning of September 28, Tai Yaoting, then an associate professor of the Law Department of the University of Hong Kong, announced that they would "occupy Central" in advance. By the afternoon of that day, the police fired multiple tear gas canisters to disperse the crowd, but more citizens came to the scene to show their solidarity and launched a 79-day struggle. It is hoped that this will force the NPC Standing Committee to withdraw the "Decision of 8.31" and accept "citizen nominations".

However, the central government did not back down, and the then Chief Secretary for Administration, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, on behalf of the government, had no results in dialogue with the Federation of Students. The occupation ended in December when the police cleared the scene.

On September 22 and 26, 2014, the Hong Kong Federation of Post-Secondary Students and the Scholar Trend (Shuangxue) successively launched a student strike, which eventually evolved into "Occupy Central", thereby forcing the NPC Standing Committee to withdraw the "8.31 Decision".

(file picture)

Radical forces push pan-democrats into a dilemma

The protest movement ended, but the protest factor sprouted.

New forces such as "paratroopers", "self-determinationists", and "localists" have risen one after another, constantly criticizing the slow pace of traditional pan-democratic democracy and advocating radical methods of resistance.

Among them, the "Local Democracy Frontier" represented by Liang Tianqi and Huang Taiyang, and the "Hong Kong Confederation" composed of scholars such as Huang Zhifeng and Luo Guancong and core members of the Students' Federation are the most notable; among them, Benmin advocates "Hong Kong independence" and "Hong Kong independence" Brave struggle."

The new forces quickly gained the support of young people eager for change, and the traditional pan-democrats were caught in a dilemma.

However, Luo Jianxi emphasized that the Democratic Party has always adhered to a pragmatic and moderate political line, and has not retreated under the impact of local ideological trends.

He mentioned that the Democratic Party released an article titled "Standing on the Shoulders of Historical Giants: The Democratic Party's Review and Prospect of Hong Kong-China Relations" when the Democratic Party held a seminar on the 20th anniversary of the handover in 2017, "We believe that 'One Country, Two Systems' "It is best for Hong Kong, and I still believe that within the framework of sovereignty, Hong Kong people will be given the greatest room for autonomy." Li Huaming also pointed out that in order to strive for democracy and freedom in Hong Kong, it is natural to do so under the framework of "one country, two systems" guaranteed by the Basic Law, not "Revolution", "Independence".

However, if the Democratic Party has always recognized the constitutional ethics of "one country, two systems", why would it go further and further away from the central government?

Luo Jianxi doesn't know, but he can only quote a statement from the political circle that the establishment is dissatisfied with the negotiation between the Central Committee and the Democratic Party. (Central) If you don’t contact us, we will not take the initiative to contact us without incident.”

But in Li Huaming's view, the problem stems from the increasingly radical demonstrations and occupation methods. "It is a fatal mistake to think that foreign sanctions, domestic violence, raids, and attacks will paralyze the government." The incident broke out, and the non-establishment faction won 80% of the seats in the district council election at the end of the same year. It is at the end of the road, being used by foreign government forces, and thus completely "give up" to the democrats, only then can we "improve the electoral system"."

In Li Huaming's view, the central government broke with the traditional pan-democratic and non-establishment factions, and it was the latter who threatened them with increasingly radical demonstrations and occupations (photo by Liang Pengwei)

Is the anti-amendment turmoil a democratic "black hole"?

After the turmoil against the amendment bill in 2019, the central government deeply realized that there was a problem in Hong Kong's political development, and successively took steps to formulate the "Hong Kong National Security Law", revise the electoral system, implement the principle of "patriots ruling Hong Kong", and comprehensively improve the national security factor.

In the past, the "dual universal suffrage" with low nomination thresholds that pan-democrats have been striving for has been exchanged for a stricter qualification examination system.

The number of seats in the Legislative Council for universal suffrage has also been significantly reduced from 40 to 20, among which 5 seats from the "super district council" have been abolished, and 40 seats have been added to the electoral commission electoral constituency that is said to have the "national will".

Those who intend to run for election to the Legislative Council need to pass the qualification examination system, sign a declaration of support for the Basic Law and allegiance to the SAR, and need to be nominated by no less than 100 and no more than 200 voters in their constituency, and have no less than 100 nominations from each constituency of the Election Commission. Nominations of less than 2 and no more than 4 members, that is, at least 10 nomination votes from the Election Committee, can be eligible for candidacy.

Taking the general election held at the end of last year as an example, only a very small number of non-organized persons successfully reached the entry threshold; at the same time, many traditional pan-democrats chose to "boycott" the election, and even questioned whether it was "kneeling low" to seek nomination from the Election Committee.

In the end, the Democratic Party did not send anyone to run for election, and among the 90 seats, only Di Zhiyuan, a new thinker in the social welfare sector, called himself a "democrat".

Li Huaming described the anti-amendment turmoil as a "black hole" in Hong Kong's democratic process.

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Many people worry that the road to democracy in Hong Kong will be interrupted, but the central government insists that it has not and will not violate the promise of universal suffrage.

At the end of last year, the State Council Information Office published a white paper titled "Democratic Development in Hong Kong under "One Country, Two Systems", which compiled the journey of Hong Kong's democracy from the British Hong Kong era to the electoral reform of the SAR.

As for President Xi Jinping's meeting with the new Chief Executive Li Jiachao who received the letter of appointment two months ago, he mentioned that "the new election system must be adhered to for a long time", Tian Feilong, director of the National Hong Kong and Macao Research Association and associate professor of the Law School of Beihang University, also interpreted that , the prerequisite for restarting the political reform is to ensure that "patriots ruling Hong Kong" are fully and accurately implemented. He also expects that it will take at least ten years and two to three rounds of elections before the authorities can assess whether the new system has been consolidated.

Transforming "loyal opposition" back to the political arena?

Regarding whether pan-democrats can continue to stand on the political stage, Tian Feilong suggested that they transform into "loyal opposition".

In this regard, Luo Jianxi said frankly that the first article of the Democratic Party's platform has stated that "Hong Kong is an inalienable part of China, and we support the return of Hong Kong to China." Reflecting public opinion and monitoring government governance, "This has never changed. If there is still room in the future, we will still do it."

But when asked if he would seek nominations from the election committee, Law Kin-hee said: "I can't be specific, but we still hope that the electoral system may allow more people to participate and be more convincing to the public. In fact, all political parties may participate in politics. The most important thing is to get the support of the public and then be elected successfully. If the public no longer trusts and agrees with your decision, they will not vote for you.” Taking the Legislative Council election at the end of last year as an example, many “democrats” ran for election. , but the citizens did not vote for it. "We need to think about the reasons behind it, and can we persuade the citizens to support us? If it is useless and loses the election, does it still make sense? The Democratic Party needs to be responsible to the people of Hong Kong. We are rooted in Hong Kong. party."

Liu Zhaojia, vice-chairman of the National Association for Hong Kong and Macau Studies, predicts that future political reforms will be based on the current electoral system: "The central government's philosophy on political reforms is to facilitate the full and accurate implementation of 'one country, two systems', patriots governing Hong Kong, national security, These are far more important than democratization in favor of Hong Kong's prosperity and stability. Therefore, even if changes are to be made in the future, the direction will be to further strengthen the patriotic governance of Hong Kong, increase the social representation of the patriotic camp, and be conducive to executive leadership and national security. Instead of overthrowing this system and introducing Western-style democracy.”

Li Huaming also has the same expectation, and believes that even if the "one person, one vote" chief executive election is implemented in the future, there will inevitably be a higher nomination threshold, and it cannot be a Western-style universal suffrage system with a low entry threshold. "This is a political reality."

Will the Democratic Party accept "democratic universal suffrage" with certain restrictions on participation?

Luo Jianxi responded that the "universal suffrage" model believed by the Democratic Party is to strive for maximum autonomy for Hong Kong people under "one country, two systems". It is not only reflected in the right to vote, but also the right to nominate and stand for election. We can only continuously reflect this set of arguments to the central government. As for whether they accept it? Will it lower the electoral system or open up the Legislative Council election system? We can't change it."

Entering the mid-term stage of the fifty-year unchanging commitment of "One Country, Two Systems", Hong Kong will face more unknowns and more challenges.

If we want to follow the path of democracy in the future, we will not only test the trust of the central government and Hong Kong, but also the wisdom of politicians.

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