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Former US Secretary of State Kissinger sees three scenarios for the end of the Ukraine war

2022-07-06T08:11:27.312Z


Former US Secretary of State Kissinger sees three scenarios for the end of the Ukraine war Created: 07/06/2022, 10:00 am By: Bettina Menzel Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has now described three scenarios of how the Ukraine war could end (archive photo, 2014). © picture alliance / Britta Pedersen / dpa | Brita Pedersen Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sees three possi


Former US Secretary of State Kissinger sees three scenarios for the end of the Ukraine war

Created: 07/06/2022, 10:00 am

By: Bettina Menzel

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has now described three scenarios of how the Ukraine war could end (archive photo, 2014).

© picture alliance / Britta Pedersen / dpa |

Brita Pedersen

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sees three possible scenarios for an end to the Ukraine war.

In his view, only one of them is a "success for Ukraine's allies".

LONDON - There are numerous theories as to how the Ukraine war could end.

Now a political veteran who is familiar with international crises has spoken out.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger explained

his views in an interview with British political magazine

The Spectator on Saturday.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the US politician said that Europe should "not jeopardize its stability because of a few square kilometers in the Donbass".

Kissinger now explains what he meant by that, describes three possible scenarios for the end of the war - and which he considers the right one.

Realpolitiker Henry Kissinger offends with Ukraine statement in Davos

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger shaped many milestones in world history.

These included, for example, the arms limitation between the USA and the Soviet Union in the 1970s, the roadmap for Israel and the Palestinian territories or the peace treaty in the Vietnam War - for which he received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973.

The Harvard graduate with German roots, who had to flee from the Nazis in 1938, is also considered a real politician without scruples.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Fürth-born politician had received criticism for some statements.

He had advised Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to make a peace deal possible.

A humiliating defeat for Russia, on the other hand, would jeopardize the long-term stability of Europe, Kissinger warned.

Ukraine reacted angrily, especially its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"It's good that the Ukrainians in the trenches don't have time to listen to the 'Davos scaremongers'.

They are busy defending freedom and democracy," Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on Twitter.

In an interview with

The Spectator magazine

The grandfather of US politics is now giving details - and even claims to have recognized a change of mood in Zelenskyj.

Possible end of the Ukraine war: Russia remains in previously conquered positions

Henry Kissinger sees three possible end-of-war scenarios.

In the first option, Russia would hold the now conquered territories.

It would have conquered 20 percent of Ukraine and most of Donbass, the country's most important industrial and agricultural region.

In addition, Russia would also own a stretch of land along the Black Sea.

In Kissinger's view, if Russia sticks to this position, it would be a victory for Putin - despite the numerous setbacks at the beginning of the war.

In this scenario, the role of NATO would not be as decisive as previously assumed.

Second possible outcome of the war: an attempt to oust Russia from previously conquered areas

In 2014, Russia violently seized the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and incorporated it into its territory.

This illegal annexation of Crimea is considered the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, not just the year 2022. In the second scenario, Kissinger describes what would happen if an attempt were made to push Russia back from the areas it had conquered before the Ukraine war - including Crimea.

In that case, the question of a war with Russia itself would arise if the war continued, Kissinger said.

It would then no longer be about the freedom of Ukraine, but about a new war with Russia.

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Third scenario: Ukraine keeps the national territory as after 2014

The former US Secretary of State recalled that he had already described the third scenario in Davos, referring to his much-criticized statements.

"In his most recent statements, he essentially accepted what I set out in Davos," Kissinger said of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"He gave an interview to the Financial Times [on June 7] in which he essentially accepted the basic framework," the 99-year-old says, convinced of Zelensky's change of heart.

Accordingly, the border should ideally be restored as it was after 2014.

If Russia can be prevented from military conquests "and if the battle line returns to the position where the war began, then the current incursion is defeated," the former US Secretary of State describes this scenario.

Then Ukraine would have post-2014 territory, would be rearmed, and would be closely associated with - if not part of - NATO.

The US politician admits that not all problems would be solved.

Nonetheless, he outlines a future in which the remaining issues could be resolved through negotiations.

Although the situation would have been "frozen" for a while, Kissinger concedes, the Realpolitiker remains optimistic, but as we saw in the reunification of Europe, there could be a convergence over time.

Ukraine war: From Kissinger's point of view, this end of the war is a "success for the allies"

According to the former politician, he does not want to pass judgment on what the outcome of the negotiations should look like.

But Kissinger also emphasizes that restoring the borders after 2014 could be considered "a substantial success for the allies".

Even if it doesn't look like a win for the West at first glance.

Because NATO would be strengthened by the accession of Sweden and Finland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be better protected.

Ukraine would have the largest conventional ground force in Europe affiliated with NATO or even a member of the defense alliance.

Russia would have been shown that the fear of a Russian invasion that had hovered over Europe since World War II could be averted by NATO intervention.

"For the first time in recent history, Russia would be confronted with the need to coexist with the whole of Europe instead of with the nuclear power USA as the defender of Europe," said the political veteran.

However, this does not mean that the geopolitical problems are off the table.

According to Kissinger, China should be even more of a concern today than Russia.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-07-06

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