The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to advance.
How will Moscow proceed?
According to information from Kiev, Russia's troops continue to fight for complete control of the already largely conquered Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine.
Luhansk governor Serhiy Hajday had previously stated that even after the fall of the strategically important city of Lysychansk, fighting would continue in the outskirts.
Moscow, on the other hand, has been saying for days that its own troops have taken complete control of Luhansk.
The fall of Lyssychansk raises the question of the next steps for Russian troops in the Ukraine war.
Seal off the Donbass, advance further, negotiate and thus secure what has been won or split the West?
War in Ukraine: Russian troops continue to advance west
Nobody seems to be able to stop the Russian troops from getting complete control of the Donbass.
Pierre Grasser of the International Relations department at the Sorbonne University thinks Russia could next try to take the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
The Ukraine War in Pictures - Destruction, Resistance and Hope
The Ukraine War in Pictures - Destruction, Resistance and Hope
However, Russian troops have shown their inability to advance too far against the enemy.
The Russian "steam roller works well near its borders, its logistics centers and its air bases," says Pierre Razoux of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies.
"The further they get away from them, the more complicated it gets."
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What are Putin's plans for Ukraine?
© Grigory Sysoyev/dpa
Ukraine War: Control of Black Sea coast
The Russian army quickly captured the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson early in the war.
But the situation on the shores of the Black Sea is not stable.
Australian military expert Mick Ryan believes that the war in the south and the "liberation of Ukrainian ports from Russian influence" are of "very great strategic importance".
Controlling the coast would give Moscow contiguous territory with Crimea, annexed in 2014, as well as access to Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
But "Ukraine's counterattacks in the south pose a dilemma for the Russians. Do they maintain the offensive in the east or strengthen the south?" Ryan warns.
Ukraine war: Kharkiv could be the next target
Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine is the country's second largest city.
A stone's throw from the border with Russia, Kharkiv is still under Ukrainian control and could be Putin's next target, according to academic Razoux.
In the event of a “Ukrainian incursion”, Moscow could therefore force the Ukrainian troops to decide whether to defend Kharkiv or move south towards Kherson.
A battle for the city of Kharkiv, which has a population of around 1.4 million, would undoubtedly be devastating, and according to Razoux, a siege could last a year.
Vladimir Putin continues to divide the West
With every further military success, Putin drives the wedge deeper into Western solidarity.
Colin Clarke of New York's Soufan Center said Russia's goal is to "continue to crush Ukrainian troops" and wait for "political support for Ukraine to wane in the West."
Kyiv depends on Western military aid.
But according to Alexander Grinberg of the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy, Ukrainians are aware "that the West cannot provide all the heavy weapons they need."
Each additional week of war increases the pressure on Western public opinion regarding inflation and the energy crisis.
According to Grinberg, one day the US could simply tell the Ukrainians: "You can't go on."
Ukraine War: Under What Circumstances Are Negotiations Possible?
Russian advances should not forget the costs: sanctions, lives and the destruction of material.
According to analysts, Putin has many reasons for wanting to end the war.
At the end of June, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that the Ukrainian soldiers only had to lay down their arms and fulfill the demands made by Russia.
"Then it will all be over in one day."
But even if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were tempted to trade Donbass for peace, according to Razoux, his right-wing party and generals reject "any compromise with Russia".
"You can tolerate a frozen conflict, but not defeat."
Whatever Putin is planning, a quick end to the war is currently not particularly likely.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has many options, but his goals remain unclear.
(skr/AFP)
List of rubrics: © Grigory Sysoyev/dpa
