In 2003, France experienced a heat wave that has remained in our memories and a record number of hectares burned in one summer.
With hindsight, scientists have calculated that the weather conditions of this period had a probability of occurring every 10 years under the current climate, compared to 500 years before the industrial period.
Heat, arid air, dry soils and inflammability of vegetation due to lack of rain: these factors conducive to fires will be more and more frequent with climate change.
Only the wind regime does not seem to be affected by the current upheavals.
“The risk of fires will be multiplied by 2 or 3 in southern Europe by the end of the century
, indicates Renaud Barbero, researcher at Inrae (National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the environment).
But this scenario could be revised upwards depending on the quantity of greenhouse gases that will be emitted into the atmosphere in the years to come.
The Mediterranean rim…
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