The United States will fall into a recession, but it did not have to, according to the former chief economist of the IMF

They warn of a strong economic recession 1:06

New York (CNN Business) --

It's "almost impossible" for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation without sending the US economy into recession, says former International Monetary Fund chief economist Ken Rogoff.

"[The Fed] would have to be very lucky," Rogoff told CNN's Christine Romans on Early Start.

"They have to decide: Do they have to bring inflation down quickly, or are they going to throw us into a recession? I think they're saying they're going to bring inflation down. I think they'll blink."

Rogoff said he thinks the Fed will "blink" and rein in aggressive rate hikes.

• The Federal Reserve passes the buck on inflation

The professor of economics at Harvard University was "angry" at what is happening to the economy.

"I don't think this had to happen. We hit the throttle too long and it's been too late a stimulus. I sympathize with all the targets, but the stimulus, it went on too long and it wasn't

calibrated," Rogoff said.

• OPINION |

  It's time to prepare for a recession

Rogoff also notes that supply shocks and the war in Ukraine have added to the inflation crisis, which he says is more of a challenge than the Fed thought.

advertising

"Personally, I think they should take it slow and let inflation run high for a few years and go slow," rather than trigger a recession.

"There is no easy way out."

Recession