Is Brexit still a hot potato for Johnson and the possibility of a comeback?

Johnson's announcement of his resignation on July 7 has one thing in common with the Brexit referendum almost exactly six years ago, that things did not come to a clean end.

After announcing his resignation, as the next Conservative Party leader is not expected to be elected until September, it is likely that Johnson will remain in the prime minister's office for the next two months.

After the Brexit referendum, after more than three years of negotiations and a one-year transition period, the UK will officially part ways with the EU in terms of regulation in 2021. Its economic impact has only been assessed by various parties until today. The Northern Ireland border inspection The controversy also shows that the Brexit battle has not yet been resolved.

If Johnson's three-year term as prime minister has any legacy, it's the Brexit mess.

Many people believe that if the 2016 Brexit referendum had not been promoted by Johnson's personal charm, the Brexiteers might not have won by a small margin; if there was no Johnson's push for a hard Brexit in 2019, the United Kingdom may still be in the end. It will remain in the single market and customs union, and there will be no economic impact and controversy in Northern Ireland today; if Johnson had not defeated the Labour Party under the banner of "getting Brexit done" at the end of 2019, he would have dared to advocate "before becoming Labour Party leader". When Keir Starmer, who entered the EU after the second referendum, announced his Brexit policy last Monday (July 4), he would not deny the option of returning to the single market or customs union.

Although Johnson was ultimately spurned by the people and party members because of his character flaw of lying , but during his three-year term, he turned Brexit into a political premise that neither of the two major parties in the UK was willing to overturn, and it was enough to make Johnson's own history.

Still, it's probably a notoriety.

'Belated' Brexit economic figures

A year and a half after Britain officially left the European Union, disillusionment with a post-Brexit Britain has grown.

According to an Ipsos poll in June, 45% of Britons thought Brexit would make their daily lives worse, up 15 percentage points from the same period last year.

YouGov's tracking poll also shows that 62% of people think the government has not handled Brexit well, an increase of nearly 20 percentage points from the beginning of 2020; 55% of people think that Brexit is a bad thing, and only 16% think that Brexit is a good thing.

This shift is likely due to the economic impact of Brexit.

The picture shows British Prime Minister Johnson's wife Carrie (in red) on July 7, 2022, outside the British Prime Minister's Office, watching her husband read out her resignation statement.

She also smiled as she listened to her husband's speech and put her hand on the arm of Nigel Adams, the foreign secretary for Asia, in a show of mutual support.

(Associated Press)

Modeling estimates published in June by the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank, suggest that by the fourth quarter of 2021, the UK's GDP, investment and merchandise trade will each fall by 5.2% compared to their assumption of remaining in the EU. , 13.7% and 13.6%.

The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) under the Ministry of Finance also pointed out in March this year that UK exports by the end of 2021 will be 13% lower than the 2019 average, which is lower than the average level of 3% higher than that of developed economies before the epidemic, and believes that "Brexit" could be a factor," noting that this would reduce the UK's potential productivity by 4% over the next 15 years.

Among the external factors of the Russian-Ukrainian war, rising energy and food prices, the UK's inflation rate has reached 9.1%, the highest among the G7 countries.

According to the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, food prices in the UK will rise by 6% from 2020 to 2021 due to the impact of Brexit, while the number of UK-EU trade relations has dropped by nearly a third one.

UK households' energy bills are more likely to rise by 50% this winter to around £3,000.

Disposable household income in the UK is expected to fall by 2% this year, after adjusting for inflation, the biggest drop since records began in 1964.

And until May, the UK economy is expected to have contracted for three consecutive months.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also forecasts that the UK economy will stop growing in the coming year, making it the worst performing G20 country outside Russia.

On July 7, Johnson announced his resignation outside the Prime Minister's Office.

(Associated Press)

Under the epidemic, the British government rescued the market and raised the national debt to a level exceeding 90% of the economic output.

As Johnson continued to show support for tax cuts in his resignation speech, the Office for Budget Responsibility released its latest report, saying geopolitical tensions and the energy crisis have exacerbated public finances already affected by an ageing population After that, it will reach a level of more than double to more than four times GDP.

Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the exchequer who took the lead in "jumping the boat" on July 5 and later announced his candidacy as party leader, had previously announced a tax hike plan, but this was only enough to temporarily stabilize the debt level in the future.

At a time when inflation is high, the economy is facing downward pressure, and the government's finances are becoming unstable, the UK has entered a new wave of strikes. Railway workers and criminal lawyers have launched different forms of strikes to seek better treatment. Teachers and medical staff have a future It is also possible to join the strike.

Brexit has also caused a shortage of temporary agricultural workers in the UK, and many crops have encountered the fate of being unharvested.

Various 'unresolved' Brexit political disputes

In addition to economic issues, the Brexit deal's regulation that Ireland actually remains in the EU's single market has also exacerbated the persistent contradiction between the two factions in Northern Ireland, while the dispute over border inspections in the Irish Sea has become a major issue in UK-EU relations. A crack.

The European Union last week terminated more than 100 research grants to British academics as the Conservative government threatened to unilaterally alter the UK border agreement.

At the same time, Northern Ireland has formed a bipolar opinion on the preservation and abolition of border inspections, and so far has not been able to form a government.

Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sim Wee Shing has announced his candidacy for party leadership.

(Getty Images)

On the other side of Ireland, Scotland has been dissatisfied with the "forced Brexit", which constitutes the rationale for its attempt to vote to leave the UK after it failed in the 2014 independence referendum.

Under pressure from independence, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon recently unveiled plans for an independence referendum in 2023.

The outlook for the United Kingdom remains affected by the Brexit fallout.

Johnson's victory in 2019 was partly due to his success in "talking about people and talking about ghosts".

On the one hand, he persuaded those who believed in a small government and a free market by saying that the UK would be able to abolish the strict EU market controls after Brexit; on the other hand, he used the government to support the “Leveling Up” of the economy in backward regions. The slogan has attracted support from voters in former industrial areas and the economic left of the Conservative Party.

In the contradiction between small government and big government, Johnson's personal reputation has become a combination of the two.

At a time when as many as 70% of the public believe that Johnson should step down, this rift within the party can no longer be covered up by Johnson's political skills.

Johnson himself hopes to cut taxes to benefit the people in the face of high inflation. In his resignation letter on July 5, former Finance Minister Xin Weicheng, who attached great importance to fiscal prudence, pointed out that he and Johnson have "fundamental differences" in the economy, and believes that Johnson should make "fundamental differences". Difficult decision."

With Johnson gone, the intractable divide between the low tax and fiscal balance of the small government faction and the broad public service of the big government faction will create a tear in the Conservative Party.

On this issue, the current large number of candidates for leadership have widely differing positions.

In addition, ideological issues such as the transfer of illegal immigrants to Rwanda and the European Court of Human Rights should have jurisdiction over the UK will also continue to ignite infighting within the Conservative Party - especially no matter who the next party leader/prime minister is. It is also difficult to see the prestige of Johnson after his 2019 election victory.

Under the siege of the external environment, the economic and political impact of Brexit, and the tearing of the Conservative Party, the Conservative Party will not only be difficult to repeat the big victory in 2019 in the next general election, which is expected to be held in 2024. Labour and other parties.

Labour Party leader Shi Jixian's "Beer Gate" was officially ruled by the police last week as not an illegal gathering, but a workplace.

Shi Jixian has called for an early general election in the UK.

(Associated Press)

Johnson coming back in two years?

That could be the time for Johnson's comeback.

Looking around at least a dozen other leaders in the Conservative Party, no one can match Johnson in terms of political charisma.

Today, Johnson is only 58 out of 50, he is still young, and there is still room for a comeback.

In his resignation speech, he took a stance of not admitting defeat, not apologizing for his moral inadequacy, but also mocking the party's follower mentality, and reiterated that he brought 30 years of success to the Conservative Party in 2019. Seeing the track record of great victory, he pointed out that his government has the authorization of millions of people, and described the opposition of his party members as "eccentric".

Although he appointed a prestigious figure in the party to the cabinet, and promised not to introduce major policy changes during the transition period, his "refugee deportation to Rwanda", "legislation to unilaterally suspend the Northern Ireland border inspection regulations" and other ongoing disputes policy will continue to advance.

Some people think that this almost Trump's reluctance to admit defeat indicates that Johnson may make small moves during the Prime Minister's transit to retain power.

Some Conservative Party elders have said Johnson should step down immediately and hand over to someone else to run the Prime Minister's office on an interim basis.

Labour has also threatened a vote of no confidence in Parliament.

However, for Johnson, who has Churchill as his political idol, instead of risking historical infamy like Trump, it is better to adopt the method of "leaving the green hills."

Today, Johnson has indicated that he will continue to retain members of the House of Commons. Before entering politics, Johnson, who made a name for himself with a pen and a mouth in various media, can also use the leisure of the backbenchers in the future to laugh and scold. Wait for the failure of the next government to make a comeback.

It certainly wasn't a clear road for Johnson, who is infamous today.

But voters' memories are short-lived, and there's always a market for the story of the prodigal son.

We cannot underestimate Johnson, who has been in power since he was a child.