By Edith M. Lederer
Associated Press
The world population will reach 8 billion on November 15 this year and India will replace China as the world's most populous nation next year, the UN forecast on Monday.
The report, released on World Population Day, highlights that global population growth was less than 1% in 2020 and is growing at its slowest pace since 1950.
According to the latest UN projections, the world population could grow to nearly 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion people by the 2080s. It is projected to remain at that level through 2100.
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UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called 2022 a "historic year" with "the birth of the 8 billionth inhabitant of the Earth."
The report, State of World Population 2022, puts the population at 7.942 million and forecasts that it will reach 8 billion on November 15.
"This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, acknowledge our common humanity and marvel at the advances in health that have extended life expectancy and dramatically reduced maternal and infant mortality rates," Guterres said in a statement.
It is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity and marvel at advances in health."
Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General
"At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another," Guterres said.
The report projects that over the next year India, with a current population of 1.412 million, will overtake China, with a current population of 1.426 million, but John Wilmoth, director of the UN population division, said there is more uncertainty. on that date.
A group of people queue in Kerala, India, on April 10, 2022. RS Iyer / AP
The UN projects that
in 2050 the United States will remain the third most populous country in the world, behind India and China.
Nigeria is projected to be number 4, followed by Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia and Bangladesh.
Russia and Mexico, which are among the 10 most populous countries in 2022, are projected to lose their ninth and tenth places in 2050.
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"The population of 61 countries or areas is projected to
decline by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050
," the report says.
"In countries with at least half a million people, the largest relative reductions in population size over that period, with losses of 20% or more, are expected to occur in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine."
In other highlights, the report said global life expectancy has improved nearly 9 years since 1990, to 72.8 years for babies born in 2019, and is projected to reach 77.2 years in 2050 as death rates continue to decline. .
But in 2021, life expectancy in the world's poorest countries fell 7 years behind the global average.
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Regarding gender balance, the report says: “Globally, the world has slightly more men (50.3%) than women (49.7%) in 2022. This figure is projected to slowly reverse over time. of the century.
By 2050, the number of women is expected to equal the number of men
."
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The share of working-age people between 25 and 64 has been rising in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean "thanks to recent declines in fertility," the document says. .
The UN said this "demographic dividend" provides an opportunity to accelerate economic growth in these countries.
The report also found that "the population over 65 is growing faster than the population under that age."
"As a result, the proportion of the global population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050," he said.
Wilmoth said high life expectancies and very low levels of fertility and birth rates in European countries, Japan, North America, Australia and New Zealand are driving the trend toward a rapidly aging population and eventually a potential population decline.
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As a result, for decades to come, international migration "will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries," the report says.
"Instead, for the foreseeable future, population growth in low- and lower-middle-income countries will continue to be driven by an excess of births over deaths," he said.