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Brisbane, Australia (CNN) --
On a small group of atolls in the central Pacific Ocean, Kiribati islanders celebrated their Independence Day Tuesday with a president who recently decided to skip the first regional summit in three years.
President Taneti Maamau not only chose not to attend the Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Suva, Fiji, but also withdrew the country from the 18-member group as a matter of principle, due to a dispute involving his leadership.
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Some saw Beijing's hand in Maamau's decision to leave the alliance, a claim China's foreign ministry rejected as "completely baseless" during a briefing on Monday.
But on Tuesday it was the turn of the United States to step forward with incentives for Pacific island leaders to counter Beijing's efforts to dominate an increasingly competitive geopolitical contest in a region of great strategic importance.
Kanton Island, Kiribati.
A senior Biden administration official told reporters, on a call, that the United States was "significantly escalating [its] actions in the Pacific islands."
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The incentives included more funding for fishing, additional aid and offers from new US embassies in the Pacific, including one in Kiribati which, along with the Solomon Islands, appears to be moving closer to China.
The measures will be presented personally to Pacific leaders on Wednesday in a virtual address by US Vice President Kamala Harris, underscoring Washington's efforts to highlight the importance of the Pacific to US strategy.
It is not clear whether Kiribati's decision to withdraw from the forum has influenced the magnitude of the commitment of the United States, which has been promising greater involvement in the region for months, while China tries to close a series of agreements with the leaders of the Pacific.
But Kiribati's decision to go it alone while forging closer economic and diplomatic ties with China shows the depth of diplomatic challenges in the region, and the pressure Pacific leaders are under as they try to manage their internal affairs. and regional.
"There is a clear regional and sub-regional dynamic at play," said Anna Powles, a professor at the Center for Defense and Security Studies at Massey University in New Zealand.
"What is not clear is what President Maamau's game plan is, what he hopes to achieve by withdrawing Kiribati from the forum and how this will benefit the people of Kiribati."
The venue for this year's Pacific Islands Forum, at the Grand Pacific Hotel in Suva, Fiji.
China may deny having played a role in Kiribati's decision not to attend the forum, but Professor Anne-Marie Brady, a specialist in Chinese Pacific Policy at the University of Canterbury, said Beijing's influence is evident.
"Kiribati appears to have been instructed not to attend," Brady said, based on his observations of China's recent activity in the Pacific.
"The timing of the announcement shows that it intends to disrupt the unity of the Pacific, just as a collective response was about to be given on China's attempt to establish a security treaty in the region."
An island nation with vast fishing resources
Kiribati is a group of 33 atolls scattered across a vast area of the central Pacific, covering 3.5 million square kilometers of ocean, an area larger than India.
About 100,000 people live there under pro-Beijing President Maamau, who was re-elected for a second term in 2020.
Three years ago, when the Pacific Islands Forum last met in Tuvalu, in August 2019, Kiribati aligned itself with Taiwan, the democratic island that the Communist Party of China considers its sovereign territory, despite not having never governed.
But within weeks of the forum, Kiribati followed the Solomon Islands by switching allegiance to Beijing.
And within months, Maamau met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing to sign a memorandum of understanding for cooperation on China's "Belt and Road" initiative. Silk).
Xi said China was willing to integrate the Belt and Road project with the Maamau 20-year vision (KV20) from 2016 to 2036 to create a "richer, happier and more peaceful country."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets with Kiribati President Taneti Maamau in Tarawa, Kiribati, on May 27.
"Kiribati is absolutely desperate for development, so it will sign as many deals as possible," said Jessica Collins, a researcher with the Lowy Institute's Pacific Islands Program.
"30% of the population of Kiribiti live in poverty. They have a growth rate of between 0.3 and 0.6%. They are really going to struggle in the current economic climate."
According to the Maamau KV20 project, success depends on the development of the country's key sectors: tourism and fishing.
Kiribati not only offers access to stunningly beautiful coral reefs, but also has one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world.
"China is very interested in accessing Kiribati's exclusive economic zone and in accessing Kiribati's fisheries," Powles said.
Although it is unclear what role China has played in Kiribati's decision to leave the forum -- if any -- Powles said there has been "significant concern about the level and extent of Chinese influence in Kiribati in the highest political levels.
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Washington's promise of increased support and engagement came at the end of the forum's first full day, as leaders tried to present a united front in the face of their greatest challenge: the climate crisis.
"The time for slow and steady action is past," Vanuatu Prime Minister Bob Loughman told the forum.
"Pacific Islands Forum leaders have called climate change the greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and well-being of our peoples."
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern arrives in Fiji on July 11 to participate in the Pacific Islands Forum.
To help Pacific islands respond to the threat, the United States said that, together with its allies and partners - Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom - it would create the Blue Pacific Partners to support Pacific priorities and promote Pacific regionalism.
It is the name of the 50-year plan for the Blue Pacific that the islands are expected to launch on Thursday, with or without Kiribati.
Other US commitments include tripling funding, up to $60 million annually for 10 years, to secure US fishing rights in the Pacific, publishing the US Pacific Islands Strategy, and appointing the America's first envoy to the Pacific Islands Forum.
To achieve America's "soft power" goals, the Peace Corps will return to four countries, including Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu, and the United States will increase aid funding to the region.
"What we are putting on the table is a true partnership based on friendship, respect and transparency," the senior administration official said.
"What we offer is a positive agenda to face short-term and long-term challenges together."
strategic importance
For China and the United States, the entire Pacific region offers security and opportunity.
But Kiribati's location offers something special: a potential military port, as it has in the past.
During World War II, the US and its allies used the single runway at Guangzhou Airport – now called Kanton Island Airport – as a major refueling stop for planes flying in and out of the Pacific.
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But after the war ended, its usefulness as a base diminished, and the airport fell into disrepair.
In 1979, when Kiribati gained independence from the United Kingdom, the Allied connection to the airport ended, but the United States signed the Treaty of Tarawa, which gave it the power to veto the use of former US facilities by third parties in Kanton and other islands.
"The treaty says that facilities on the 14 islands previously claimed sovereignty by the United States cannot be used for military purposes without the agreement of the United States," Brady said.
But he added that there are ways around it.
"A dual-use facility, where military functions are not activated immediately, could get around that provision."
"China is looking for a location for military installations in the Pacific," he said.
"Like other parts of the Indo-Pacific, the way they've been doing it is through dual-use air and port facilities."
Last year, Kiribati said China planned to upgrade the airstrip to better connect the islands and improve tourism, a key part of its KV20 plan, according to Reuters.
In May, The Guardian quoted Teburoro Tito, Kiribati's ambassador to the US and the United Nations, as saying that China had agreed in principle to fund the runway upgrade, after the US said funding could take years.
"The United States rejected us," Tito said, according to the article.
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CNN contacted the US State Department to confirm the claim, but received no response.
China's Foreign Ministry told CNN on Tuesday that China is "exploring the possibility of upgrading the Kanton airport together with Kiribati" at the request of the Kiribati government to help travel within the island country.
The spokesman added that China maintains "mutually beneficial cooperation" with the Pacific island nations "based on the concept of a community of common destiny, truthfulness and goodwill."
"China provides assistance to the best of its ability without any political strings attached," the spokesman said.
"The goal is to develop the economy and improve democracy."
Pacific leaders have a tight schedule over the next two days as they consider renewed US vigor in the region, and any rival offers from Beijing.
"It's immediately obvious that geopolitics has intruded on the agenda of the forum and it will be a huge distraction," said Patricia O'Brien, a visiting fellow in Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University, before the United States released its plan.
Among the leaders' other priorities will be to continue efforts to return Kiribati to the "Pacific family."
Yet it remains to be seen whether President Maamau sees a brighter future alone - albeit with the support of China - and whether other Pacific nations will join him.
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