Almeida already starts the 2023 electoral campaign with an internal survey: absolute majority and 'sorpasso' of the PSOE to Más Madrid

Less than a year to go to the polls.

The ballot begins.

This Thursday, the 57 councilors of the Madrid City Council were summoned to the gates of the Palacio de Cibeles.

Mari Mar Blanco, sister of Miguel Ángel Blanco, also went to the center of the capital for the commemoration of the 25th anniversary of the murder of her brother by the terrorist group ETA.

Vox, however, has declined to attend.

The reason, according to party sources, is that the act has been promoted by the Spanish Federation of Municipalities and Provinces, whose president is Abel Caballero, mayor of Vigo.

"The PSOE governs with the heirs of terrorism," they say.

However, the press conference of all municipal leaders -after the five minutes of silence- has been marked by an internal electoral survey commissioned by Almeida's communication team,

advanced by the Europa Press news agency shortly before the event.

The poll gives an absolute majority to Almeida and predicts the

of the PSOE to More Madrid, current leader of the opposition.

The author is Narciso Michavila, president of the microscopic company GAD3, which nailed the results of the last Andalusian elections and the triumph of the electoral advance of Isabel Díaz Ayuso last year, among others.

After interviewing more than 1,000 people from Madrid by telephone between July 6 and 8, GAD3 predicted that the PP would achieve between 28 and 30 councilors - the majority is 29, in the last elections it won 15 -;

in second place would be the PSOE, which would improve its results by going from being the fourth force to the second and adding, in addition, up to 12 councilors, four more than now;

More Madrid, with Rita Maestre as a candidate, would become the third municipal force with 10 councilors, nine less than in 2019 with Manuela Carmena as an electoral poster;

Vox would stagnate, it would achieve between four and five mayors, right now it has four.

Ciudadanos, with Begoña Villacís, definitively disappeared from Madrid's institutions.

The party would suddenly lose all 11 councillors.

Lastly, we can

What else does the survey say?

Popular sources believe that this vindicates the management of the last year, despite being punctuated by the two major municipal scandals: the espionage attempt on Ayuso and his family through several municipal workers and the

with the loss of more than six million euros in public money in millionaire commissions.

Other voices point out that this survey is dragged by the conservative glow of the electoral victory of the Andalusian elections.

The reality is that this poll stands apart from the latest published to date by the conservative media.

Last May, according to the Sigma Dos survey for

the PP would obtain 21 councilors, six more than those harvested in 2019;

More Madrid, 16;

PSOE, 9;

Vox, 7 and Ciudadanos, 4. There would therefore be no absolute majority for the popular ones.

took the same line

, with another poll on May 15.

Almeida would achieve 26 councilors, Más Madrid, 15, PSOE, 7, Vox, 6 and Ciudadanos, 3. That is, Almeida would not achieve an absolute majority either.

Why does this poll push the Conservative electorate further towards an outright majority?

“In general terms”, the president of GAD3, Narciso Michavila, and author of the PP's internal survey, tells by telephone, “there is a regrouping of the right.

Ciudadanos disappears definitively and returns to the PP”.

Michavila explains the

of the PSOE to More Madrid for the absence of Carmena.

“The useful vote of the left in 2019 was for Carmena.

Now, without her, that voter who voted for Carmena and was a socialist, returns to the PSOE.

Also, in the last elections of 2019 there were more votes from the left than the average”, she explains.

“We also note that in the regional Assembly the PSOE will improve the results of Ayuso's electoral advance [right now it is the third force, after being advanced for the first time by Más Madrid]”.

Assessment of the councilors

The Michavila survey also reflects the knowledge index of the main municipal leaders.

If in 2019 Almeida was very little known and based his campaign on presenting himself, three years later, the mayor of Madrid is already recognized by 98% of the 1,000 respondents.

A similar case is that of Villacís, from Ciudadanos, and Rita Maestre, from Más Madrid.

Both are recognized by 8 out of 10 respondents.

The PSOE, which has not yet launched the primaries, is immersed in a silent fight for the candidacy for the City Council.

Everything indicates that the current Government delegate, Mercedes González, will be the candidate.

However, other socialist sources believe that Mar Espinar, who is currently leading the municipal group, could also present a battle.

Other voices do not rule out a new parachutist candidate a few months before the elections,

The leader of Podemos in the capital, Luis Nieto, is recognized by more than 50% of those surveyed, despite having very little media coverage and not having institutional representation.

According to Michavila, author of the survey, the main reason is that the respondents have answered that they will vote for the Podemos candidate.

Party sources warn, however, that the formation would already be working on a joint candidacy with more parties, in line with the last Andalusian elections.

The battle for control of the Madrid mayor's office is already underway.

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