Many foods became more expensive in May.
New York (CNN Business)--
Food prices continue to rise, but there may be some relief on the horizon.
In the 12 months ending in June, overall food prices rose 10.4%, the largest annual increase since February 1981, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Three reasons not to panic at a level of inflation not seen in decades
Grocery prices rose 12.2% in the year to June, unadjusted for seasonal variations.
In that period, almost all items became more expensive, with some categories experiencing impressive increases.
Eggs rose 33.1%, flour 19.2% and chicken 18.6%.
Milk became more expensive by 16.4% and fruits and vegetables by 8.1%.
Restaurant menu prices increased by 7.7% in that period.
Many foods became more expensive in May.
Prices have risen across the board this year, with inflation soaring in June to a new pandemic-era high, with US consumer prices rising 9.1% year-on-year.
June's increase was largely due to higher gasoline prices, which were up nearly 60% from a year earlier.
Last month, Americans saw record gasoline prices, with the national average topping $5 a gallon.
As for food, an "avalanche of problems" has caused prices to rise, according to Rob Fox, director of the knowledge-sharing division of CoBank, which provides financial services to agricultural businesses.
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To name a few: Shorter milk supplies have contributed to rising prices for some dairy products.
Avian flu has driven up the cost of eggs.
Commodities such as wheat and corn rose due to bad weather and the war in Ukraine.
If we add to this the increase in wages and packaging costs, the result is very high prices.
The prices of almost everything in the supermarket have increased, except rotisserie chicken.
We explain why
What changed in the supermarket in May
From May to June, a series of foods became more expensive, adjusted for seasonal variations.
Meal prices rose 5.3%.
Butter became more expensive by 4.8% and margarine increased by 6.8%.
Fresh cookies, rolls and muffins were up 3.5%, while freshly baked cakes and cupcakes were up 2.9%.
Shoppers looking to satisfy their dessert cravings also had to pay more in the frozen aisle, with ice cream rising 4% and frozen and chilled baked goods up 2.9%.
Sugar rose 2.1%.
But there was some relief at the checkout, especially in the meat section.
Beef prices fell 2.3%, pork prices fell 1.6% and bacon prices fell 1.9%.
However, sausages were an exception, as they became 4.5% more expensive.
In the fresh produce section, citrus fell 4.5%.
What will happen next?
But there are signs that prices could start to decline.
“My prediction is that right now we are at the peak of inflation at the consumer level,” Fox said. In part, this is because input costs from food producers, which were trending higher last year, they peaked earlier this year and have been coming down, he said.
In addition, consumers may begin to restrict their purchases or choose lower-priced options when possible, which will reduce demand and ultimately drive down prices.
Consumers lean toward $1 and discount stores due to inflation in the US.
Preliminary survey data released by the University of Michigan last month showed consumer sentiment fell to an all-time low between May and June, suggesting some shoppers may start to change their spending habits.
If prices do start to drop, they won't do so right away, Fox said, saying it could take six to nine months for prices to come down.
Even then, he doesn't expect prices to fall below levels seen around this time last year.
-- Lucy Bayly and Alicia Wallace of CNN Business contributed to this report.
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