Expert: Gas shortages can be avoided in the event of a Russian delivery stop – thanks to the “ASSA” formula

Created: 07/14/2022, 05:10

By: Lisa Mayerhofer

The gas receiving station of the Nord Stream 1 Baltic Sea pipeline in Lubmin, Mecklenburg.

© Jens Büttner/dpa

What happens if Russia actually stops supplying gas to Germany?

Energy expert Kemfert sees possibilities that Germany will not slip into a gas shortage after all.

Berlin – Russia is turning off the gas tap – and Germany is facing a harsh winter, while entire branches of industry are on the brink of collapse.

That is the disaster scenario for which the Federal Republic is currently preparing.

According to the energy economist Claudia Kemfert, a gas shortage does not necessarily have to occur even if Russia were to stop all gas deliveries to Germany.

Kemfert on the energy crisis: "Avoid, store, save, expand"

"Whether there really is a gas shortage depends on various aspects," said the energy expert from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) of the German Press Agency.

These included, above all, the development of gas supply relationships with countries other than Russia, the constant filling of storage facilities and the saving of gas.

In addition, there are other options.

"But if at least the first three components are done well, I don't see that we actually have to have a gas shortage," said Kemfert.

Germany has started these measures or is already on the right track.

In an interview with the

, she explains: "We can achieve security of supply in the short term by consistently applying the "Assa" formula: Dodge, save, save, expand." Germany now has to pay a high price for the delayed energy transition.

“If the share of renewable energies were higher and if energy consumption were lower, the price would not be as high by a long shot.

And that is the good news at the same time: we have and had it in our hands how dramatic it can be.”

These are the alternatives for gas supplies to Russia

For conventional natural gas, the Netherlands and Norway have so far been among Germany's alternative sources.

In the case of liquid gas, Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) tried to find new supply relationships on a trip to Qatar in the spring.

It is still unclear whether, when and how much more gas will actually come from the emirate.

The filling level of the German gas storage facilities is increasing slowly but steadily.

It is currently around 65 percent.

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The Federal Government and the Federal Network Agency have repeatedly called on consumers and industry to save energy.

The President of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, Peter Adrian, asked private consumers and less energy-intensive companies to start saving energy consistently out of solidarity with industry.

“There are real supply bottlenecks and our entire economy is threatened with a crisis of unknown proportions.

The consequences of shutting down individual sectors or companies cannot be overlooked," Adrian told the

.

Habeck spokeswoman: In the event of a lack of gas, consumers must contribute

From the point of view of the Federal Ministry of Economics, all consumers must make contributions to save energy.

Habeck made this clear, said a spokeswoman for the German Press Agency.

A European regulation, on which the German gas emergency plan is based, defines protected customers and this requirement applies, according to the spokeswoman.

"That means kindergartens, hospitals, private consumers are protected consumers and they will continue to be supplied and supplied and not switched off even in the event of a gas shortage." But it is also clear "that in the event of a gas shortage, all consumers must make a contribution to saving energy." This also requires energy saving standards.

Bafin boss: Banks could have problems because of the energy crisis

The head of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bafin), Mark Branson, also sees possible consequences for banks and savings banks in the event of a gas shortage.

The industry was still doing well due to the Corona crisis because the state had spread its rescue package widely, Branson told the

.

In an energy crisis, almost the entire economy is affected, and the state cannot absorb everything.

“What happens if a deep recession, perhaps combined with an interest rate shock, comes along?

Then you can't rule out that banks will have problems, especially since some institutions have a lot of real estate risks or interest rate risks on their balance sheets," said the Bafin boss.