Since the second half of last year, many large-scale real estate companies in the mainland have been in a state of “bursts”, with their wealth management products failing to pay, defaulting on suppliers, defaulting on bonds, misappropriating funds in violation of regulations, and suspending work.
Although many places have begun to relax their property market control policies this year, the real estate market is still sluggish.
Data show that in the first half of the year, the average sales of the TOP 100 real estate companies nationwide was 35.64 billion yuan (RMB), a year-on-year decrease of 48.6%.
Some mainland scholars believe that the cliff-like decline in real estate will have a huge impact on the overall economy, and suggest adjusting the "three red lines" policy.
Although many places have begun to relax their property market control policies this year, the real estate market is still sluggish.
(Getty Images)
On July 12, Yao Yang, Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, pointed out at the 159th seminar of "Langrun·Gezheng" of the National Development Institute that from the perspective of the first half of the year, the annual economic growth should be around 5.5%. The target is very difficult, and the growth pressure in the second half of the year is particularly strong.
In this case, he suggested adjusting the "three red lines" policy.
The so-called "three red lines" refer to the three criteria that the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will restrict financing for real estate developers from 2021: (1) the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance receipts shall not exceed 70%; (2) the net debt ratio shall not exceed 70%. more than 100%; (3) the cash short-term debt ratio is not less than 1.
According to the contact situation of the "three red lines", real estate enterprises are divided into four grades of "red, orange, yellow and green", and real estate enterprises in different grades implement different borrowing standards.
Yao Yang pointed out that the cliff-like decline of real estate has a huge impact on China's economy. "Some people calculate that 17%, that is, 17 trillion of China's more than 100 trillion GDP is directly or indirectly contributed by real estate. Because it accounts for too much GDP. It is very big, so the cliff-like decline has obviously dug a big hole for the economy, and it is very difficult for other industries to make up for this hole with excess growth. Then why the decline is so big, I think there is no other reason, it is the "three red lines". "
Yao Yang emphasized that he is not against the rectification of the real estate industry, but that "governing a big country is like cooking a small fresh food", and the policy of "three red lines" needs careful consideration and polishing, such as "the first red line - assets and liabilities after excluding advance receipts" The ratio should not exceed 70%. It can be said that (the company's asset-liability ratio exceeds 70%), but it should give the company room to adjust. The third red line is even more incredible. The cash-to-short-term debt ratio is not less than 1. If you have cash in hand, you can pay it back Borrow money?"
Yao Yang emphasized that he is not against the rectification of the real estate industry, but "governing a big country is like cooking a small fish", and the policy of "three red lines" needs careful consideration and polishing.
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Yao Yang said that it is necessary to have a correct understanding of real estate credit.
He pointed out that the real estate industry itself is highly indebted. Real estate makes assets, and with assets, it can be used for mortgage loans, so it will have the effect of financial acceleration.
"It's not really a big problem if you are in the real estate industry." But now some real estate companies have problems - "He used the funds for house construction for other purposes, to build cars, engage in VCs (VCs) and other things that don’t work have lost everything.”, “We can’t see that some real estate companies have problems, and we can say that the entire real estate market has problems, and we have to rectify it. This is wrong. ."
For details, please read "Hong Kong 01" Electronic Weekly Issue No. 325 (July 11, 2022) " Is the
Mainland Property Market Regulation Turning?
".
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