The climate is changing drastically: weather expert explains what Munich could face
Created: 07/14/2022 04:58
By: Lucas Sauter-Orengo
In the future it will be significantly warmer in Munich due to climate change.
© Heinz Gebhardt via www.imago-images.de
The climate is changing dramatically.
Extreme events happen all over the world.
The Munich climate is also changing.
A preview of what the state capital could face.
Munich - South East Europe, South West Europe, the French Mediterranean coast - especially in summer you associate it with holidays and relaxation.
After all, in our latitudes, people long for sun, high temperatures and, ideally, not a drop of rain.
But in this century, the climatic conditions in these regions could become normal in Munich, and there is a reason for this: global warming.
Gudrun Mühlbacher, head of the regional climate office in Munich from the German Weather Service, puts it in concrete terms: Everything four hundred to five hundred kilometers southwest/southeast of Munich is an example of how the climate in the city could develop in this century.
Global warming: weather expert reveals what Munich could face
Mühlbacher deliberately avoids the word “climate catastrophe” when it comes to the changes in the Bavarian state capital, for example.
Disasters are currently happening, for example, in Africa or, more recently, India, where massive drought is threatening countless livelihoods.
One is not affected by this here.
For the meteorologist, communication is of great importance when dealing with the warming of the planet, emotionality and exaggerations are out of place - even if the facts are dramatic.
"It is important to use facts and analyzes to motivate politicians and people to take action, because one thing is clear: the climate is changing at breakneck speed, like it has never been seen before." The changes are also evident in Munich - already now.
By the year 2100, the Bavarian state capital could have completely different conditions;
Gudrun Mühlbacher from the German Weather Service.
© Gudrun Mühlbacher
Climate and weather in Munich: "Calculations show that temperatures will continue to rise"
"Our calculations clearly show that temperatures will continue to rise in the future," Mühlbacher continues.
"We assume that the summer days (from temperatures of 25 degrees) will increase by 30 to 40 percent by 2041." And that is still the "best scenario".
In the worst case, this number could rise to as much as 70 percent.
Towards the end of the century, according to forecasts, the numbers will be even higher.
In Munich, the "densely built-up" urban area would be particularly affected.
Even hot days (from temperatures of 30 degrees) would then occur much more often.
But what does that mean exactly?
Do we have to reckon with temperatures around 40 degrees in summer in Munich regularly in the coming decades?
Previous record temperatures in Munich:
-
1983
: 37.5 degrees
-
1956
: -25.4 degrees
“We work with models in meteorology.
You compare values and forecasts and use them to calculate an average,” explains the DWD expert.
40 degrees are "not unrealistic" in Munich in the future, you have to "definitely" count on it.
Precautions must therefore be taken now, especially for the weaker groups in our society, such as the elderly, the sick or infants.
In general, life in the city has to adapt.
"Fresh air corridors", such as those already existing in Munich through the Perlacher Forest or the Isar, are elementary in cooling a city.
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Climate in Munich: More days with warmth and heat
On the other hand, densely built-up, sealed areas such as Munich city center are unsuitable for a warmer future, as they heat up more with temperatures that are already high.
According to Mühlbacher, even physically demanding work such as in construction would have to adapt to the higher temperatures.
"There will be more days with heat and heat stress, that's for sure," the meteorologist continued.
In Munich, people are already benefiting from the so-called "Alpine pumps", i.e. cooler air from the Alps, which crosses the state capital in a northerly direction and provides a cooling effect.
In addition to natural components that contribute to temperature regulation, however, people must also ensure an adapted lifestyle.
The annual mean air temperature in the Munich city area in the period 1955-2018.
© Screenshot: German Weather Service
Historical climate events can already be observed in the region.
The Zugspitze was "free of snow" in mid-June - earlier than ever before.
What do such facts, scenarios and forecasts do with an expert?
"I'm a scientist, but also a human being," says Gudrun Mühlbacher.
"On the one hand you have to work with facts and provide information, on the other hand it really does something to see how the planet is heating up in such a short time and what the consequences are."
Climate change in Munich: Snow will probably become a rarity
So not only will the summers in Munich become dramatically warmer without a doubt, but the snow, which otherwise loves to fall from the sky on the Frauenkirche in winter, is likely to become a rarity in the future.
"Snow models for the long term are difficult to calculate," explains Mühlbacher, but also makes it clear that cross-country skiing on the Isar will probably not be an everyday pleasure in this century.
The climate is changing.
At breakneck speed, also in Munich.
So whether you spend your holiday in south-western or south-eastern Europe or the French Mediterranean, it should be a foretaste of what could still be the meteorological normality in the Isar metropolis in this century.
Mühlbacher therefore explains: "The faster we act now to slow down global warming, the less we will have to suffer from it in the future."
