The boycott of a vote of confidence and whammy.
After the decision of the 5 Star Movement (M5S), member of the ruling coalition, to reject a vote of confidence on a text discussed in the Senate, the chairman of the council, Mario Draghi, submitted his resignation on Thursday.
“The majority of national unity that has supported this government since its creation no longer exists.
The pact of confidence founding the action of this government has disappeared”, defended the main interested party.
A desire quickly cooled by the Italian President, Sergio Mattarella, who refused the Prime Minister's request.
A little backtracking needed.
In February 2021, President Mattarella chose Mario Draghi to succeed Giuseppe Conte, future president of the 5 Star Movement (M5S), a populist and anti-system party.
The latter suffered a split within his coalition and was forced to resign.
Spurred on by Draghi, a “national unity” coalition was formed.
The main political parties are represented, including the M5S.
Last June, a split within the 5-Star Movement led to the departure of Luigi Di Maio, figure of the movement and Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Sixty deputies follow him and also leave the ship.
An announcement that comes after the latter's criticism of the movement's president, Giuseppe Conte, accused of eroding the government's efforts to support Ukraine and weakening Rome's position within the European Union.
This crisis within the party is not viewed favorably by Mario Draghi who sees his coalition weakened.
A garbage incinerator causing discord
“Today, we are not taking part in the vote on this decree-law”, announced during the day the head of the senators of the M5S, Mariolina Castellone, “a text which does not meet the needs of the country”.
It contains measures of around 23 billion euros to help families and businesses in the face of inflation.
But it is one measure in particular that has marked deep disagreement: the one that facilitates the construction of a garbage incinerator in Rome.
The MS5 is largely opposed to it, he who considers incinerators too expensive, polluting and inefficient.
The vote of confidence in the Senate was finally won (172 votes against 39) by the ruling coalition, but Mario Draghi had warned that he would not govern without the 5 Star Movement.
What's going to happen ?
This is one of the prerogatives of the president in place: Sergio Mattarella can accept or refuse the resignation of Mario Draghi.
By choosing the second option, three possibilities are now open to him.
The first, “very unlikely” according to Marc Lazar, university professor in history and political sociology at Sciences Po: “Sergio Mattarella manages to convince Mario Draghi to stay to continue.
It is unlikely because it would be blocked and could not really act, ”he explains.
The second possibility, more likely, would be the appointment of another personality of the majority by the president: “We would then find ourselves in a government of navigation on sight and the message sent would be more reassuring.
" Finally,
the latter option would see the president dissolve the Italian Parliament (the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate) and call Italians to the polls at the end of September.
Sergio Mattarella is looking to avoid this third option.
He has five days to find a solution.
A foreseeable crisis?
“It was a guerrilla war within the government every day, advances Marc Lazar, even if the resignation of Mario Draghi was not rationally foreseeable”.
But the sudden crisis within the M5S movement has reshuffled some cards.
The party has lost many voters and is now trying to rebuild itself.
The prospect of the next general elections in Italy, which should take place on May 28, 2023, has also come into play with political parties which are beginning to show themselves.
And the consequences for France?
This is still bad news for Emmanuel Macron.
While he must advance to Parliament without an absolute majority and after the revelation of his very close ties with Uber when he was Minister of the Economy, the President of the Republic suffered a new (indirect) failure: "Emmanuel Macron maintains an excellent relationship with Mario Draghi.
They agree on many topics, including the war in Ukraine.
He is losing a great ally and this could be a weakness for him,” explains Marc Lazar.
More broadly, the Italian Prime Minister weighed very heavily at the time of European summits.
