Russia's Invasion: Does the Ukraine War Mark a New Era in History?

Created: 07/15/2022Updated: 07/15/2022 12:52 p.m

From: Foreign Policy

The Russia-Ukraine war is seen by many as a turning point.

But is it also the beginning of a new era?

© Fadel Senna/afp

Is the Russia-Ukraine War the Beginning of a New Era?

It's still too early to answer that, says Princeton Professor Bell.

History all too often holds "unpleasant surprises".

• Are we at the beginning of a new epoch in history?

  That's what history professor David A. Bell is investigating for

  Foreign Policy

  .

• This article is available in German for the first time – it was first published in

  Foreign Policy

  magazine on July 1, 2022 .

BERLIN – Earlier this year, a student asked me how historians would analyze the current period of world history, which he believed had just begun with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

I couldn't resist replying, "I have no idea.

I just hope they don't call it 'pre-war'.”

But are we really at the beginning of a new epoch in history?

Many were quick to subscribe to this idea.

columnist opined

Gerard Baker that "the Ukraine crisis marks the definitive end of the post-Cold War era".

And no sooner had Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border than Daniel S. Hamilton of the Brookings Institution agreed: “The post-Cold War era is over.

Now a more disruptive era has begun, where everything is in flux.” A few days later, political scientist Sean Illing called the invasion a “world historic event,” adding that “the effects will likely be felt for years to come.”

All three were certain that a new chapter would begin in the history books of the future in 2022.

Ukraine war as the beginning of a new era?

disagreement in history

However, historians themselves have never been able to agree on a single, obvious way of dividing history into different segments.

They argue endlessly to this day about how this should be done.

Some speak of a "long 18th century" stretching from 1688 to 1815, others of a "short 18th century" stretching only from 1715 to 1789.

Did the Middle Ages end with the Italian Renaissance in the 14th century or with the European voyages of discovery in the 15th century?

Or maybe with the Reformation in the 16th century?

Was there something like a "global Middle Ages", or does this term impose a European concept on other regions of the world,

that doesn't apply to you?

As long as historians disagree about the relative importance of various factors of historical change—that is, forever—they will disagree about the division into periods, too. 

“The pandemic,”

proclaimed in March 2020, “will change the world forever.” Actual predictions made on that occasion have largely come true.

But was 2020 really the beginning of a new era?

Today, with the initial shock having worn off and the coronavirus possibly (hopefully) down to the level of an endemic but manageable disease, its world-changing nature seems at least a little less obvious.

Even moments of particularly massive and violent upheaval do not necessarily represent a transition between different epochs. Adolf Hitler's invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939 always seemed to be such a moment.

However, many historians believe that World War II had a crucial precursor in the Spanish Civil War, which began in 1936.

Asian historians often date the beginning of the war to 1931 and the Japanese invasion of Manchuria.

Some historians, including Arno Mayer of Princeton University, have summarized the two world wars and the years between as the "Second Thirty Years' War".

The cake of history is divided again and again.

New era?

Debates 'flatter the egos of dictators like Vladimir Putin'

The end of wars and the collapse of regimes are the most reliable signs of the end of an era.

Historians often cite British statesman Edward Gray's remark at the outset of hostilities in 1914 when he said "the lamps are going out all over Europe".

At the time, however, most Europeans expected that World War I would last no more than a few months and would not trigger regime change.

The end of the 1917/18 war and the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian, German, Ottoman and Russian empires marked - as Mayer says - the clear end of one epoch and the beginning of another.

The same could be said of the end of the Cold War in 1989-91. 

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The end of the post-Cold War era is far more difficult to measure.

In fact, it has been announced many times before: the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999, 9/11, 2001, Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Donald Trump's election as US President.

I wouldn't be surprised if 10 years from now, after a new international nightmare scenario, a new chorus of instant analysts once again declared the post-Cold War era to be over.

Some epoch divisions are simply more convincing than others.

Social scientists often refer to our current era as "late capitalism," although that term has been in use since at least the mid-1970s.

But with capitalism stubbornly refusing to end, they have no alternative.

Of course, historians need ways to organize their material chronologically.

The cake must be shared.

But hasty statements about the dawn of a new era all too often amount to empty rhetorical phrases and reflect what can only be called "Fukuyama envy".

(Your name can also be tied to “the end of something.”) Worse, they flatter the egos of dictators like Vladimir Putin, who want nothing more than to be seen as world historical figures who follow the course of human events after their superhuman direct will.

They also generally require attributing to earlier periods a degree of stability that contemporary observers failed to perceive.

The era, which is said to have started in February of this year,

Ukraine war: will Russia become even more aggressive?

In the shock and horror of events such as the invasion of Ukraine, it is easy to forget that observers often fail to appreciate the true significance of an event until its long-term consequences begin to emerge.

Will the war in Ukraine degenerate into another frustrating, low-level frozen conflict like so many others in the world?

Will it lead to new and even more destabilizing aggressions by Russia?

To nuclear war?

Will he cause Putin's downfall?

By late 1991 we knew that whatever the future held, the pre-1989 communist bloc would not be a part of it.

As for Putin's invasion of Ukraine, we don't even have that level of certainty.

The outcome is still completely unpredictable and will ultimately decide

It is said that when Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai was asked in the early 1970s about the significance of the French Revolution of 1789, he replied: "It is too early to say." from 1968 meant.

But it's not without reason that the original version of the story struck a chord.

It takes time - often a very long time - for the effects of an event to become visible within reasonable limits.

And even then, historians will continue to produce competing interpretations depending on the perspective from which they write and the questions they ask.

We should also not forget that history all too often has unpleasant surprises in store.

The coming year could be the year of a plague that even puts Covid-19 to shame.

It could be the year of the stock market crash and a second Great Depression.

We could indeed be living in the 'pre-war' era right now.

Until we know for sure, we won't know what to think of the last few months.

By David A Bell

David A. Bell

is a history professor at Princeton University and the author of the recent

This article was first published in English in the magazine "ForeignPolicy.com" on July 1, 2022 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to the readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.

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