Russia-Ukraine conflict | Draghi resigns as Italian political crisis may destroy EU united front

Since the resignation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, there has been a phenomenon in EU politics that Italians themselves cannot believe: an Italian Prime Minister can play a leading role in various closed-door meetings in Brussels, sweeping away former Prime Minister Veron at once Silvio Berlusconi's notoriety left over from his "Ugly International" promiscuous parties and membership in the "Pig 5".

This prime minister is, of course, former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who is credited with saving the euro from the European debt crisis.

On July 14, Draghi, who had previously threatened to resign, resigned from the president after congressional allies refused to support his livelihood spending bill.

While the move was rejected by the president, next week's vote of confidence in Draghi in Italy's parliament has drawn deep concern across EU politics.

The 74-year-old Draghi was commissioned in February 2021 and led a major coalition government supported by nearly 90% of parliamentarians, turning Italian politics from the turmoil and division it has always been (changing the prime minister is basically commonplace) to a major European Union. the most stable country in the country.

Italian scholars who have the "Shadow of Mussolini" are even more worried that Draghi, who came to power without elections, will become a dictator-like leader and destroy the democratic system after World War II.

With the ceremonial term of President Sergio Mattarella coming to an end earlier this year, looking around, no one but Draghi himself has the prestige to succeed him.

People worry that when Draghi becomes president, no one will be able to hold real power as prime minister.

After a political battle among the congressional parties, Mattarella, at the age of 80, decided to retire after taking the overall situation as the top priority. Draghi continued to serve as prime minister, and Italians avoided political turmoil.

Italian President Sergio Mattarella was forced to abandon his retirement plans.

(Getty Images)

The Russian-Ukrainian war brought sudden pressure to Draghi's rule.

In Europe, Italy has always been a pro-Russian pioneer. Its reliance on Russian natural gas is comparable to that of Germany, and it is often accused of hindering tough action against Russia at the EU level.

However, on February 24th, the war broke out again on the European continent. Draghi, who had doubts about sanctions on Russian energy imports and did not think the war would really break out, immediately became a hawk towards Russia, not only fully supporting the EU Various sanctions against Russia have also made efforts to confiscate the assets of wealthy Russian businessmen at home and actively export weapons to Ukraine.

In addition, the proposal to impose a "price cap" on Russian oil and even natural gas to reduce Putin's energy revenue was actually first proposed by Draghi.

Although the proposal has not been formally adopted by the European Union, it has become the subject of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's current lobbying campaign, and it has also been included in the G7 countries as a project for consideration.

However, Italians who emphasize practical interests and have a pro-Russian tradition are still the more pro-Russian faction in major European countries.

According to a June report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a think tank, only 56% of Italians believed that Russia was responsible for the war, the lowest among the 10 European countries sampled in the report; at the same time, more than 60% of Italians believed that Russia was responsible for the war. They believe that military spending should not be increased for the Russian-Ukrainian war; on top of cutting off relations with Russia, less than half of them support cutting off diplomatic relations, and only 35% support cutting off diplomatic and cultural relations, both of which are lower than ten percent in Europe. average proportion of the country.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis will visit Ukraine on June 16, 2022, and meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, pictured here, attends a joint press conference after the five-person meeting.

(AP)

On the basis of such public opinion, and the fact that the Putin administration has been courting politicians in Italy, some parties have taken a stand against a hard-line attitude toward Russia.

Although the far-right Lega, the second-largest party after the 2018 election, is now in the ruling coalition, its leader Matteo Salvini has been opposed to Draghi sending arms to Ukraine.

(Interestingly, the small opposition "Brother Party", which is farther to the right than the "Coalition" and leads the polls in the next election, supports arms losses.)

The largest party after the 2018 general election, the Five Star Movement (M5S), fell into a party split because of the same issue. In late June, Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, who supported the loss of arms to Ukraine, decided to join forces with the former leader of the party at the moment. Political amateur Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has parted ways, taking a third of the MPs from the Five Star Movement to go their separate ways.

Politics preview for next year's election

The support of the "Five-Star Movement" has dropped by 60-70% compared to four years ago, from more than 30% to a little over 10% today.

Since Italy must hold general elections by June 2023, there have been voices in the party that the "Five Star Movement" should withdraw from Draghi's government to gain exposure and support - Draghi's limelight is too high, and people only see his He is in power, but he cannot see the politicians of the ruling coalition parties who support him with seats in Congress.

However, at this moment, Draghi is really what the people want, and if he takes the initiative to "make a clean break" with him amid inflation, energy crisis, and the Russian-Ukrainian war, this is likely to be an action that will outweigh the gains.

The better way out, then, is probably to stay in Draghi's government, but openly "keep a distance" from him.

This strategy is also the line of the "Alliance Party" Salvini who has always stayed in the government while criticizing the government.

As a result, Conte found an opportunity to attack Draghi's 26 billion-euro public spending bill, objecting to the proposal to build a garbage incinerator in Rome and other environmental considerations, threatening to boycott the vote, and asking Draghi Compromises on issues such as minimum wages and welfare funding, and accused Deguila, who closely follows the EU line, of making Italy "a passive recipient of decisions made by others" and exacerbating an "irreversible division" between the West and the rest of the world.

Conte has made great achievements in leading Italy's anti-epidemic efforts. He stepped down as prime minister twice in three years and was invited by the "Five Star Movement" to be its leader.

(AP)

Draghi said the government would not accept an "ultimatum".

When the Five Star Movement really boycotted the vote, even if the bill was still passed, Draghi used it as a vote of confidence, saying that the "grand coalition government" that supported him in power no longer existed, and immediately went to the Presidential Palace to ask Matta Leyla resigned, and was unsurprisingly rejected by the latter.

However, the news has shocked Italy, and its stock market has plummeted by several percentage points immediately, while the spread between Italian government bonds and German government bonds has further widened.

Draghi's move is a gamble ahead of the 2023 election.

He knows that he is not an ordinary politician and must step down by 2023, but Italy, which has received the largest funding from the EU recovery fund, is currently promoting domestic structural reforms, and the EU also needs a politically stable Italy. Therefore, in the coming year, he must do his best To maintain the rare and effective functioning of the Italian government at the moment.

The problem is, as the elections in the coming year are approaching, the parties will undoubtedly be eager to prepare for the election with political performances. Small moves like this "Five Star Movement" boycotting the bill vote will follow one after another.

Draghi, of course, wanted to nip in the bud the predictable political tricks of the parties by threatening to resign.

Whether he succeeds will still trigger a decision by the parties to call for an early general election, which will be announced next week.

Draghi will leave one day

If Draghi fails, the EU will immediately lose a reliable leader.

At present, French President Emmanuel Macron has just lost his parliamentary majority, and his domestic weakness will make it difficult for him to play at the EU level; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is still a new face on the EU diplomatic stage. And he, who is reticent and known for his official rhetoric, has apparently had no intention of taking on the leadership role of the EU like Merkel has for months.

Therefore, the only one who has the will and power to dominate EU politics and negotiate carefully with leaders to seek consensus is only Draghi.

At the moment, the EU is engaged in a battle for energy supply with Russia. At the beginning of this week, when the Nord Stream No. 1 went into maintenance and shut down, all countries are worried that this winter may trigger an energy crisis in Europe and enter a stage where energy must be rationed.

Due to the different energy infrastructures of different countries, once a crisis strikes, the EU may fall into a situation where countries closed their borders to save themselves and snatch supplies from each other at the beginning of the epidemic, fragmenting and integrating the systems of EU countries.

Later this month, the European Commission will announce plans for countries to coordinate energy policies in a crisis, and countries will also hold emergency meetings to this end.

Losing Draghi at this point, plunging the EU's third-largest country into political turmoil, will make it harder for the 27 countries with their own interests to piece together a response that is broadly acceptable to all.

It should also be noted, however, that Draghi has more than a year left in his term, and that even if Draghi remains in office at the moment, leaders of the EU powers should start preparing for his departure.

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