The follow-up effects of the attack and death of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are still fermenting. Whether it is the direction of Japan's political situation or the possible changes in geopolitical relations with China and Taiwan, they are the focus of attention in the "post-Abe era" .
In Taiwan, it also affects the sensitive nerves of the blue-green ruling and opposition trends and cross-strait relations.
In an interview with "Hong Kong 01", Yoshihiko Honda, a senior Japanese media person in Taiwan, believed that Shinzo Abe's image was polarized. Both Japanese and Taiwanese society took advantage of the tragic death of Abe to seek comfort from their own frustrations, but it did not affect the basic situation.
Abe's evaluation in Japan is polarized
Yoshihiko Honda, who lived in Taiwan for many years and grew up in Japan's "post-security generation", first shared with the "Hong Kong 01" reporter the "impression of Abe" he knew, as well as the reaction and collective atmosphere of Japanese society after the death of Shinzo Abe.
Honda Yoshihiko said that Abe himself is a very controversial figure.
As far as his usual remarks are concerned, he is not a very extreme person. Although his attitude towards the Taiwan issue after leaving office is rather sharp, but it may be because he grew up in a political family, he does not give the impression of being very mean.
However, relatively speaking, it did not give a particularly positive impression.
Anyway, Japanese society likes him if he likes it, and dislikes what he doesn't like. The evaluation is quite polar.
Among them, Shinzo Abe will be affirmed, usually from his patriotic remarks or his right-leaning behavior pattern.
But on the other hand, compared with his predecessors, Abe did not visit the Yasukuni Shrine very often. His performance as prime minister was very cautious and pragmatic in managing China-Japan relations, including his handling of the "Taiwan" during the Ma Ying-jeou administration in Taiwan. This attitude can also be seen in the Japan Fisheries Agreement.
Since Abe is the prime minister, he sometimes needs to accept the arrangements and requirements of the bureaucracy, but if his personality is very strange and abnormal, it may not be the way he appears; from this point of view, Abe is still relatively " normal people" category.
Yoshihiko Honda, a senior Japanese media person based in Taiwan, was interviewed by Hong Kong 01 in Taipei. He talked about Japanese society's bipolar perception of Shinzo Abe. The public opinion after Abe was attacked and killed was one-sided. He believed that there were elements of indifference and usefulness. Sadness comforts one's own mental state.
(Photo by Zhang Junkai)
If looking at Shinzo Abe from the perspective of "symbols", Honda Yoshihiko believes that Abe can be said to be a collection of negative symbols.
For example, he was born in a hereditary political family, his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi was listed as a Class A war criminal in World War II, etc. Some people affirm these backgrounds, but some people are quite disgusted. This is an inherently controversial factor in him.
In addition, his speech is not decent, but people who affirm him will think that he is a person who is close to the people and is very nice.
For Abe's likes and dislikes, it actually depends on which side you stand on to see him.
However, there is a consensus among those who hold critical views of Shinzo Abe in Japan. Although he has no record of corruption, it does not mean that he has no problems with his personal morality.
In particular, "Abenomics", which only pays attention to the surface, cannot bring the Japanese economy out of deflation. Unfair financial policies favor the wealthy class, leading to a wider gap between the rich and the poor. In order to provide convenience for their own people, they often use public tools for private use, and lying becomes a problem. Sex, deliberately tampering with official documents to conceal facts, etc., these are all negative impressions he gives.
Shinzo Abe reflects the true face of Japan
The reason why Shinzo Abe has been able to become the longest-serving prime minister in Japan's constitutional history, Honda Yoshihiko analyzed that there is a certain public opinion foundation behind this, mainly because Japan's situation in the past 20 to 30 years has not been very ideal, especially since the 1990s. The economic performance is not good, and Japanese society cannot find a target to project before Shinzo Abe.
The stability of Abe’s regime is also related to its business practices. When normal democratic countries encounter political crises or conflicts, they usually seek solutions or compromise solutions through parliamentary discussions. However, Abe does not adopt this system. He dissolved the Congress and re-elected, and if he won the election, he passed the test.
Honda Yoshihiko does not agree with his style of work. Although he looks strong on the surface, he is actually very guilty, because after all, it is not a very legitimate approach. not resolved.
Abe's attitude may have been very appealing to the Japanese people at the time. Due to the bad actual situation, he had to show his legitimacy strongly to the outside world, but the people still knew in their hearts that these were unreal illusions.
When the topic changed, Honda Yoshihiko criticized that most of the low-level democratic societies will have the above situation. Everyone shouted and it was cool, but there was no solution to the problem.
Including Taiwan, when everyone sees the existence of the CCP in their eyes, they will comfort themselves with the idea of "at least we are more democratic than them", but they are all false.
Japan claims to have the same democratic values as the United States, but Japan's democracy "falls from the sky" after its defeat in the war, not something it was won. More democratic than them, the result is not.
A Japanese man lays flowers and prayers for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Zojoji Temple before his farewell ceremony on July 11.
(AP)
Yoshihiko Honda often has incisive and unique observations on the collective psychology of Japanese society.
He recalled that at the beginning of Abe's death, the domestic media and public opinion in Japan presented a one-sided view of Abe, and they could only affirm him and not allow any criticism of him.
The reason is that firstly, Japan also has the concept of "the dead are the greatest"; secondly, the Japanese society has been depressed for a long time, so everyone wants to be "touched", for example, which country did Japan finally win in a football game? Yes, everyone will be very impressed.
However, just after the phone call with the Japanese family, Honda Yoshihiko further added that he felt the relative indifference of ordinary people and the feeling that there are both positive and negative disputes.
Whether moved or sad, Honda Yoshihiko pointed out that another reason why Japanese society has formed an atmosphere where Abe cannot be criticized is that examining him is equivalent to examining himself. In the rules of the game in a democratic society, no matter whether you vote for him or not, Now that Abe is the prime minister, the people will also bear some of the responsibility.
When some people are unwilling to face them, they will deliberately avoid them and send them away, which is equivalent to sending away the true face that they do not want to see in the past.
It is too early to amend the constitution, the right is big and the left is small
After the death of Shinzo Abe, the outside world is curious to what extent will it impact Japan's political ecology and structure?
Especially after Fumio Kishida's victory in the Japanese Senate election for the Liberal Democratic Party, he stated that he would fulfill Abe's last wish for constitutional revision. It also makes people wonder what kind of decline will appear in Japan's right-wing forces?
Honda Yoshihiko said flatly that whether the Kishida government will really take the first step in constitutional revision requires a more sober judgment.
Generally speaking, when it comes to the issue of constitutional amendment, Article 9 of the pacifist constitution is often immediately thought of, but it is not limited to this.
There is a high threshold to amend the constitution. When many people really face the actual situation, they will think more.
Honda Yoshihiko recalled that there was an upsurge in constitutional amendments in Japan three or four years ago, and many people were in favor. However, when everyone saw that Japan might really be transformed into a system that can fight wars, it was only a few months ago. dropped sharply again.
The reason is that once people feel the real situation for themselves, they will still be afraid, their thinking will change, and their attitudes will also change.
However, a more imminent challenge than constitutional revision, Honda Yoshihiko added, is that the Japanese ruling authorities are likely to use the slogan of "preventing terror" under the slogan of "preventing terror" under the guise of Abe's assassination. and freedom of movement laws.
Fortunately, the Nara prefectural police have stated that the motive of the suspect is related to the religious group background of the Unification Church, and there is no political motive, which slightly resolves the collective hatred.
However, the Japanese government may still use its strength to push in the direction of "anti-terrorism". If it comes true, these will greatly damage the vitality of Japanese society and will definitely weaken the competitiveness of the country and society.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated on July 8 by Toruya Yamagami.
The picture shows that on July 10, Yamagami Toruya left the Nara Police Station and went to the District Attorney's Office.
(AP)
Regarding the direction of Japan's political structure in the future, Honda Yoshihiko predicts that the "right big and left small" will continue for some time.
The basis for his judgment is that the Liberal Democratic Party also has leftist elements in some aspects of its constitution, and it is a political party with a wide political spectrum.
He took Japanese trade unions as an entry point and pointed out that Japanese trade unions are not necessarily so powerful. At this time, the company can directly mobilize employees, and the Liberal Democratic Party has direct interaction with the company's management, so it has a place to exert force, in order to prevent the trade union from gaining Dominance, on the contrary, will take a social democratic line and take care of employees to a certain extent.
Not as simple as the European and American political spectrum, Honda Yoshihiko believes that there is a wonderful relationship between Japanese politics, "there is a left wing in the right wing, and there is a right wing in the left wing".
The mobilization energy of the Liberal Democratic Party itself is still greater than the outside world imagined. It has a "big right and small left" structure. After "Su Dongbo", the mobilization energy of the left has been greatly weakened, and the existing kinetic energy of the right is still there. , evolved into today's Japan's "giant right" and "weak left", the basic structure has not changed much.
Relations with China cannot be detached from the US position
If the Japanese political situation will not undergo a major reorganization due to Abe's death, will it have an impact on the operation of Sino-Japanese relations if it is enlarged to regional relations?
Yoshihiko Honda personally believes that Fumio Kishida is a relatively pragmatic person. On the one hand, he must explain to the United States and cannot go beyond the framework of the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy. Moreover, the United States is not currently confronting China in an all-round way. Therefore, Japan is even less likely to surpass the US position.
On the other hand, although the Kishida government still has a relatively strong position on the country, the Japanese people will gradually know that we need to be more pragmatic in order to seek future development.
Moreover, Japan is currently facing a big economic crisis, such as rising prices, energy problems, inflation, etc. Although the economic performance of the past two or three decades has not been satisfactory, the feelings of ordinary people in the past six months may be the most profound.
Under such circumstances, Japan is still limited in how strong its foreign policy can be.
If Abe's ruling was considered a pragmatic line in the past, Kishida could at least not overthrow this one; whether Kishida could fully inherit Abe's line still depends on Kishida's conditions and his interaction with the United States, but Japan should not fully oppose China, this choice is not changing.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a post-election press conference at the Central Committee of the Liberal Democratic Party on July 11 as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, emphasizing that he would inherit the last wish of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was shot dead, and commit himself to the revision of the constitution that Abe was eager to resolve before his death. Unfinished ambition.
(AP)
In addition, Yoshihiko Honda believes that the trend of Japan's relations with China can also be examined from Abe's past right-wing image.
Although Shinzo Abe cannot be called the spiritual leader of the right wing, he has a pragmatic and pro-Beijing side, but at least the right wing can accept what he says, can trust him, and will not question him.
So far, I haven't seen anyone with a role like Abe, but sooner or later someone will replace Abe's original position, because whether Japan and China can achieve a balanced relationship is directly related to the fate of Japan's national destiny.
Lack of a sense of history, Abe's pro-Taiwan is very different
As for the "Taiwan-Japan relationship" with Shinzo Abe as the main line, especially after his resignation as prime minister for the second time, he turned into a "general supporter of Taiwan" and repeatedly advocated the idea that "if there is something in Taiwan, there is something in Japan, and if there is something in the Japan-US alliance." , Taiwanese society not only regards him as a deep-feeling friend, but politicians also regard him as a strong support from the Japanese political circles for the "anti-China protection of Taiwan" line.
Now that Shinzo Abe has passed away suddenly, will Taiwan-Japan relations change?
Honda Yoshihiko reminded that Shinzo Abe's "pro-Taiwan" is not the same as his grandfather Kishi's "pro-Taiwan" (pro-Kunifu).
Nobuo Kishi, Abe's younger brother, once said that Nobuo Kishi is pro-Taiwan, but he may not be able to explain the connection between Shinzo Abe's pro-Taiwan.
Yoshihiko Honda said that Kishi is a person who has personally experienced the history from the war to the establishment of the Communist Party of China. It is quite clear about the historical context behind it. It is very different from the "Japan-Taiwan relations" in the era of Shinzo Abe, and even the level is different.
Abe's understanding of the history of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is relatively weak. The concept of Taiwan and China he knows is different from that of his grandfather. For Abe, these historical details have no personal feeling.
Honda Yoshihiko believes that Shinzo Abe's "pro-Taiwan" performance is of course based on his political calculations and practical needs, and also has a different meaning from his grandfather Kishi Nobusuke's "pro-Taiwan" (pro-national government).
The picture shows Kishi (left) signing the "Japan-US Security Agreement".
(Getty)
However, Yoshihiko Honda also emphasized that Taiwan in the eyes of Japan, to be honest, has an unequal relationship.
The relationship between Japan and the national government is very delicate. The national government was defeated and retreated from the mainland to Taiwan and became a very small regime. However, it was a victorious country, and it also claimed that the mainland is also its own territory, so you can still see the shadow of "Great China".
However, Japanese society no longer understands Taiwan today as it did in the past. Instead, it regards Taiwan as a neighbor that will not challenge me or pose a threat to me, or even a bargaining chip that can be used to contain Beijing.
Generally Japanese regard Taiwan as a place suitable for tourism. Honda Yoshihiko describes this mentality as a feeling similar to "Hawaiian where Chinese food is especially delicious". He may not even know how the National Treasure of the National Palace Museum in Taipei and the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall came from. too clear.
Abe's "fantasy" always ends
Honda Yoshihiko once wrote an article titled "The Romantic Imagination and Cruel Reality of "Japan-Taiwan Friendship", in which he has such insight into the emotional structure of "Japan-Taiwan friendship": "Some Taiwanese people who have accumulated frustration, and Some Japanese people who are accustomed to a sense of loss, these two groups with a sense of defeat, take an awkward attitude from time to time when they go to the mainland. At the same time, under the basic structure of the Taiwan side not challenging the Japanese side, they are addicted to each other's warmth, A relationship that is lyrical and harmonious, but each has its own tricks and uses each other." After Abe's death, how will the emotions that Taiwan cast on him in the past flow?
Honda Yoshihiko believes that "fantasy" will always exist. If you lose one object of projection, you will eventually find another object of projection. Indulging in sadness is also a simple way to comfort yourself.
Therefore, the basic situation of Taiwan-Japan relations will not change much in a short period of time. If there is an interest relationship between the two, after Abe leaves, there will naturally be new roles to maintain relations with Taiwan. There is no doubt about this.
Yoshihiko Honda also does not think that there will be a major breakthrough in the relationship between Japan and Taiwan in the future, and it is unlikely that a fundamental qualitative change will occur.
He said that the Japan-Taiwan relationship, as well as the Japan-China relationship, is actually a Japan-US relationship. As long as there is no fundamental change in the Japan-US relationship, the Japan-China relationship will not change, let alone the Japan-Taiwan relationship. The frame is like this.
Even if the relationship between Japan and the United States is shaken a little bit, it will at most be like the degree of shaking the house in a typhoon, and it will not be on the level of a major earthquake.
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Taiwan-Japan "dotted line" is difficult to become "solid line"
However, the problem is that if the background of China's rise and the United States' containment of China are taken into account, the line of Japan-Taiwan relations will be squeezed out more prominently. Everyone knows that this is a "dotted line". On the party side, there will always be people who want to promote this as a "solid line".
Honda Yoshihiko agreed with this judgment, but he said that propaganda should not be forgotten. Once Japan and Taiwan really go to the "solid line", what will Beijing do?
At this time, is Japan willing to bear the burden?
"So far, I don't see Japan having the courage to do so." Of course, there are still some people in Japan who say they want to establish substantive relations with Taiwan in the media or on the Internet. He also admitted frankly, "It's just that we don't care about Taiwan every day in our country. , things in the mainland are not discussed every day.”
Taking the United States as a reference object, Honda Yoshihiko mentioned that the United States is obviously in a state of decline, so there will be a lot of verbal commitments. You can see its various commitments to Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Taiwan. The problem is commitment and fulfillment ability. are two different things.
Japan has no choice but to follow the United States, including the pineapple boom in Taiwan in 2021, but this year's buying interest has dropped significantly, and they are less concerned about the recent grouper.
Honda Yoshihiko said with a smile, is the grouper a "democracy fish"?
The Japanese society is not very aware of Taiwan's expectations for Japan. Even if someone comes forward to promote it, it is not themselves who will pay for it, and they will become particularly cautious when they really want to pay for it.
As for Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-de, who went to Japan to express his condolences to Abe Shinzo in the name of a "private trip", which is regarded by some as a "diplomatic breakthrough" at the "highest level" since Japan and Taiwan cut off diplomatic relations 50 years ago?
Honda Yoshihiko retorted that when Chiang Ching-kuo was still alive, Lee Teng-hui visited Japan as vice president in 1985, and also met with Japanese politicians and media, which was 37 years earlier than Lai Qingde's trip to Japan.
Honda Yoshihiko sighed that many Taiwanese are actually projecting "anti-China" sentiment by mourning Abe, and at the same time causing an emotional counterattack from mainland netizens.
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