Moscow and Belarus are threatening NATO: But Putin's vassal Lukashenko has four major problems at home

Created: 07/16/2022, 07:33

By: Patrick Mayer

Putin's ally Lukashenko railed against Ukraine, NATO and Lithuania.

His army is not ready for war.

And certainly not the society in Belarus.

Munich/Minsk - According to Ukrainian sources, twenty rockets were recently fired at Chernihiv on a single morning at five o'clock.

Such attacks are nothing new since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But the shelling allegedly came from Belarusian territory.

Alexander Lukashenko: Belarus President is an ally of Vladimir Putin

From where Alexander Lukashenko rules in an authoritarian manner.

The 67-year-old is considered an ally of Moscow ruler Vladimir Putin.

In this capacity, Lukashenko threatened the transatlantic defense alliance NATO and Ukraine on the day of independence from the Soviet Union (July 3).

He said that he had ordered his armed forces "to target the decision-making centers of Minsk opponents."

President of Belarus: Alexander Lukashenko.

© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

There were also threatening gestures with regard to the 65-kilometer “Suwalki Gap” between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

The Russian Baltic Fleet, which employs NATO in the Baltic Sea, is stationed in Kaliningrad.

NATO member Lithuania has recently blocked the transit of many goods from Belarus to Kaliningrad.

According to the Russian news agency

, Putin and Lukashenko discussed countermeasures against Lithuania on Monday (July 11), as reported by

.

Alexander Lukashenko: Belarusian ruler threatens NATO, Ukraine and Lithuania

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Belarusians: “The Kremlin has already decided everything for you.

But you are not slaves and cannon fodder."

It is an indication of Kiev's concerns that Minsk could enter the war alongside the Kremlin.

For context: The border between Ukraine and Belarus is over 1000 kilometers long.

The spokesman for the Ukrainian border guard, Andriy Demchenko, told the news portal

that the entire border had been reinforced.

recently reported

, citing military circles, that mines are being laid.

“The Ukrainian army is aware of the risk of an invasion by Belarusian forces.

We have prepared for emergencies.

We will make it absolutely clear to Lukashenko that his troops are not welcome on Ukrainian soil," Demchenko said.

Alexander Lukashenko: Belarus should tie Ukrainian troops to the border for Vladimir Putin

This is exactly what Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov sees as

the purpose of Putin's military alliance with Lukashenko, according to

The Ukrainian army is forced to leave soldiers and materiel on the long border.

According to Zhdanov, a reserve colonel, these troops would be much more needed for the counter-offensive in the south around Kherson, for example.

According to Zhdanov, Lukashenko should threaten a second front in the north.

“Putin doesn't care how many Belarusians would die in an invasion.

His goal is to prevent the Ukrainian General Staff from moving more troops to the Donbass to further disrupt Russia's offensive there," he said.

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But how big is the danger of a Belarusian invasion really?

On closer inspection, Lukashenko has four huge problems to deal with at home.

First, according to experts, Belarus could not send more than 18,000 soldiers, writes

.

, the Ukraine war is

very unpopular among the population.

It's our fight together.

Without a free Ukraine there is no free Belarus either.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, leader of the Belarusian opposition

Third, despite reprisals against the civilian population, Lukashenko still faces a well-organized opposition.

For example: “We support Ukraine.

Because this is our common fight.

Without a free Ukraine there is no free Belarus, and without a free Belarus there is no secure Ukraine.

Then there will also be no security for our neighboring countries," said Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya on ARD's "Tagesthemen".

Russia-Ukraine War: Belarusian opposition supports Ukrainian fighters

The Belarusian opposition would support the Ukrainian fighters “as far as we can.

You know that when the war broke out, Belarusian activists carried out acts of sabotage on the railroad tracks to prevent Russian troops from advancing.

Belarusians took photos of Russian equipment and missiles launched from Belarus,” she told ARD: “They sent these pictures to the Ukrainian army.

Hundreds of Belarusians are fighting on the side of Ukraine.” That's not all.

Minsk, August 16, 2020: Up to 200,000 people took to the streets against ruler Alexander Lukashenko.

© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Fourth, Western sanctions significantly weaken the economy and especially the Belarusian army, which can only rely on outdated Soviet material.

The European Union (EU) had already imposed the first sanctions because of the repression against protesters after the allegedly falsified presidential elections in August 2020.

During the demonstration against Lukashenko on August 16, 2020 alone, 200,000 people took to the streets in Minsk.

More sanctions were added after supporting Russia's war of aggression.

Belarus: Tough EU sanctions for supporting Russia

In the EU, for example, the export of military technology, software for monitoring the Internet and tapping of telephone calls in mobile networks is prohibited.

The cross-off list also includes cigarette paper and tobacco.

There is a general ban on the export of machines, unless they serve humanitarian and medical purposes.

Electronics for telecommunications and navigation, sensors and lasers are also on the sanctions list.

Social unrest as a result of entering the war would probably be too great a risk for Lukashenko.