Consequences of the Ukraine war can accelerate the green energy transition - "Overachievement of the Paris climate goals"

Created: 07/18/2022, 09:31

By: Bettina Menzel

A recent study (symbol image) shows that the consequences of the Ukraine war could accelerate the green energy transition.

© IMAGO/Christoph Hardt / Panama Pictures

The Ukraine war may now be accelerating the green energy transition in Germany, as a study shows.

This would also reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies.

Berlin - In 2021, Germany covered 19.7 percent of final energy consumption from renewable energies, according to data from the Federal Environment Agency.

If this proportion were higher, the Federal Republic would be less dependent on Russian energy supplies.

But the Ukraine war could now accelerate the move away from fossil fuels, as a recent study by Allianz Trade shows.

This is how dependence on Russian energy has a concrete effect

Gas is currently no longer flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline because the annual maintenance work, which lasts around ten days, is due.

But whether Russia will open the gas tap again on July 21 as planned remains questionable.

The thriller about an allegedly missing turbine for restarting the pipeline could be an indication that Moscow has no plans to continue gas deliveries.

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Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) considers the debate about the turbine just a pretext.

"Russia could have used almost 100 percent of the capacity of Nord Stream 1 even without this one turbine," said the minister.

Even before the maintenance work began, Russia had cut gas supplies to about 40 percent of the usual level.

The German gas storage facilities are therefore less full than usual.

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, many German citizens have been trying to save energy.

According to a recent survey by Yougov, a total of 39 percent have reduced their energy consumption since the beginning of the war.

In the first few months of this year, gas consumption fell by around 14 percent compared to the previous year, Federal Economics Minister Habeck confirms the effect of the efforts.

At the same time, however, he still sees potential for saving energy in companies.

Study: Short-term use of coal does not lead to higher CO2 emissions

As a gas substitute, Germany is now ramping up coal-fired power plants that are actually undesirable.

A study by the credit insurer Allianz Trade comes to the conclusion that the consequences of the war in Ukraine on energy policy could accelerate the green energy transition.

This applies even if Germany uses more coal to generate electricity again in the short term in the race for independence in the energy sector.

Additional use of coal would lead to an increase in the price of CO2 emissions as a result of the EU emissions trading system.

"This in turn means fewer CO2 emissions in other sectors," explained Allianz energy expert Markus Zimmer.

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"In the medium term, Germany's ambitious goals are likely to increase the share of renewable energies in the electricity mix even beyond what would be required to meet the Paris climate targets by 2035," said Milo Bogaerts, head of Allianz Trade for the German-speaking region.

The prerequisite for this, however, is a major restructuring of processes in central areas of the electricity system.

Expansion of renewable energies brings 440,000 jobs in Germany - and less money for Putin's war

According to Allianz Trade, the expansion of renewable energies brings with it significant growth and employment advantages: The expansion of electricity generation capacity from renewable energies alone will require investments of an average of 28 billion euros per year up to 2035.

These led directly and indirectly to additional added value of EUR 40 billion annually, which currently corresponds to more than one percent of German gross domestic product.

"In addition, the expansion of renewable energies will employ an average of 440,000 people in Germany from 2022 to 2035," according to the credit insurer's economists.

More renewable energy in Germany would also reduce Russia's revenues.

An analysis by the 

portal  sees a correlation between Russian oil and gas exports to Europe and Russia's military spending.

While correlation doesn't always imply causation, there is an obvious connection.

Because oil and gas currently account for around 40 percent of Russian state revenues