Italy periodically goes through unsuspected political turmoil and government crises.
It's hard to keep track and always find the reasons.
But when the crack opens again, it is worth paying attention to the movements of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
The Florentine – current leader of Italia Viva, a party with little support in the polls, but with notable influence in these cases – continues to be one of the great experts in parliamentary chess.
And he carefully observes crises like the one the country is going through these days, after Prime Minister Mario Draghi presented his resignation on Thursday, which was rejected by the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella.
Draghi will announce on Wednesday, in a parliamentary intervention, how he gets out of this mess.
The hand of Renzi, 47, appears in practically all the Executive changes and major elections of the last decade.
In an interview with EL PAÍS he says that he is convinced that Draghi will not resign out of a sense of responsibility and love for his country.
Ask.
How will this crisis end?
Response.
There is only one possible path: for Draghi to return to the Chigi Palace [headquarters of the Government].
There is no alternative solution.
Neither temporary governments, nor technicians… Or Draghi or elections.
The 5 Star Movement (M5S) is responsible for this chaos, the umpteenth calamity that is punishing us this summer.
But now is the time to ask Draghi for responsibility as well.
He has the numbers, so he has to continue until the spring of 2023. The country is asking for it, normal people are asking for it, Europe is asking for it… Draghi must be prime minister again.
P.
So, Draghi or elections?
A.
Yes. Better that than the continuous blackmail of 5 Stars.
It is a party educated in hatred, that attacks its opponents and that today argues about Rome [the refusal to vote on the confidence motion that triggered the crisis was due to its opposition to a garbage incineration plant in the Italian capital] when the The city needs to be cleaned up from the disasters of a former
grillina
mayor .
Q.
What would be the impact in Italy and in Europe of Draghi's resignation?
R.
The consequences would be enormous.
Very important in Rome, because Italy would lose the aura of reliability and authority that Draghi represents.
Also in Madrid or Paris, because the Mediterranean front would lose a strong traveling companion.
And in Brussels, because at the moment when we have to write the new rules of the Stability Pact, doing without Draghi would be a sin.
But it would be very shocking also in kyiv and in Moscow.
And the only ones who don't get it are the M5S.
P.
Do you think you have already made the decision?
Have you probed his mood?
R.
I have a lot of respect for his humor.
But now she tells of her love for Italy.
That he make all the personal assessments he wants, but the important thing is that he does not resign.
And I am convinced that it will be so.
Q.
What would be the formula of its continuity?
R.
He must decide.
But I would prefer a Draghi Bis [a new Executive].
I do not exclude that he goes ahead with the current situation without a piece of the M5S, the technicalities are up to him.
But you have to avoid a negotiation.
I have suggested that he go to Parliament, make a list of what remains to be done until 2023 and that they take it or leave it.
But let there be no negotiations with Salvini, Berlusconi, Renzi or Letta.
“I think there should be a Draghi Bis.
I have suggested that he go to Parliament, make a list of what remains to be done until 2023 and take it or leave it
Q.
So, do you advocate a new Executive without Giuseppe Conte and without the M5S?
R.
A formula in which you choose the best to do your job.
Look, Conte won the lottery and became prime minister by chance.
And politics is not bingo.
You can win once, but if you don't have a political culture and don't know the art of politics, sooner or later reality reminds you that you're incapable.
Perhaps I exaggerate because of my training as a grown man in the Palazzo Vecchio who loves Machiavelli.
But there is no doubt that the leader of a country cannot be someone who won the lottery.
So I imagine that he will go ahead with Draghi and without Conte.
Draghi had to resign, but now it will be Conte who does it.
That is my judgement.
Renzi, in a party act. Italia Viva
P.
Isn't that art of politics what Draghi has lacked to avoid this crisis?
Haven't you exaggerated too much?
R.
Draghi is much more political than we think.
A man raised in Rome, in the Jesuit school, with a great relationship with governments working as a technician.
But in some circles of his closest circle, his political ability has not always shone.
Above all, in the case of the Quirinal, when his collaborators did not help him [he lost the battle to be president of the Republic in February].
Although compared to Conte, they are children of Adenauer, De Gasperi or Schuman.
In some environments of his closest circle, political capacity has not always shone”
P.
But it has been somewhat rigid forcing the crisis...
R.
It has been rigid from a reputational point of view.
He believed that he should send a warning that he could not stay at any cost.
But paradoxically, that reputational fact now forces him to continue in office.
He cannot think of leaving Italy and Europe now in the middle of work.
Draghi has been rigid from a reputational standpoint.
But paradoxically, that fact now forces him to continue in office.
P.
Why do you think Conte, who has been prime minister twice, has made a move of this kind?
R.
Because the institutions do not matter to him.
He knows that his political experience may end prematurely.
He has done it for his own interest.
Q.
After this turn, can the M5S continue to be a partner of the Democratic Party (PD) in the next elections?
A.
Absolutely not.
Who thinks about it, also within the PD, does not realize the anger that there is among the people for what has happened.
Italy has made a fool of itself because of Conte.
And the PD can't keep up with him.
Q.
Is the implosion of the M5S then good news?
R.
That they are not will help Italy to be a more civil country.
But populism is still there.
P.
The new party of Luigi Di Maio, former leader of M5S and current Foreign Minister, in which you propose to support, is a made-up version of M5S.
Are they reliable?
R.
Today they say things of common sense.
The problem is that they are things opposite to what they said a year ago.
They've changed?
At the moment it is opportunism.
But you have to keep Draghi.
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