“In Bavaria nobody will have to freeze to death”: VBEW boss explains why every consumer is now important

Created: 2022-07-20 09:03

By: Matthew Schneider

According to VBEW boss Detlef Fischer, nobody in Bavaria has to freeze to death in winter.

© Kay Nietfeld/dpa

It's only July, but Germany's natural gas storage facilities are already empty.

The big question is: will gas flow through Nord Stream 1 again from Thursday?

For Detlef Fischer, General Manager of the Bavarian Energy and Water Industry Association (VBEW), one thing is clear: consumers are now the most important link in the chain.

Gas in Europe costs just over 160 euros per megawatt hour, before the crisis it was around 20 euros.

With such prices, tankers with liquefied natural gas (LNG) would have to stow in front of Europe's ports, wouldn't they?

We get more, but it's not long enough.

Between January and May 2021, 3.8 billion kilowatt hours of gas were delivered via the Belgian LNG terminals - this year it was 88.8 billion.

But you have to see: We only get these quantities because they are paid for at moon prices that no economy can afford in the long run.

And they contrast with around 510 billion kilowatt hours that Russia supplied in the entire period of last year and that are now at stake.

Will Bavaria get through the winter if Russia stops supplying gas?

Even if the stores were 100% full, they would only last for two winter months.

In Bavaria, however, nobody will have to freeze to death because they don't have a single warm room.

How comfortably we would get through the winter without Russian gas depends on many factors.

How economical are we going to be with natural gas from now on, how much LNG can we buy from, when do we have to support other EU countries with natural gas.

Last but not least, it depends on how hard and how long the next winter will be.

But we can't just look at ourselves.

In the EU, we are not only an economic community, but also a community based on solidarity.

In the event of a gas shortage - which will affect all countries in case of doubt - we are obliged to help each other.

On the subject of solidarity: Robert Habeck doubts the shutdown sequence in the event of a gas shortage.

Is that right?

According to the law, the critical infrastructure and private consumers are supplied to the last.

The rules were decided at a time when widespread gas shortages seemed completely unrealistic.

And we really have to ask ourselves where we want to cut back – and I deliberately don't say switch off.

It doesn't help anyone if people heat their entire apartment to 25 degrees, but the chemical plant, where some essential everyday goods are manufactured, is at a standstill.

This applies above all to the second most important commercial gas consumer, the food industry.

The gas shortage is a task for society as a whole, private individuals also have to make their contribution.

We want to avoid shutdowns by reducing consumption sensibly.

VBEW boss demands: “Consumers should definitely save”

How can you encourage consumers to save?

We don't really have any technical options.

We can only appeal to consumers - also in their own interest.

Gas is already being traded on the exchanges for eight times the usual price level - and we still have no shortage.

Next year, most consumers will be paying triple their previous bills.

If you want to avoid unpleasant surprises, you have to start saving now – and that will help the economy as a whole.

Because in winter, half of the gas is used for heating in private households.

When the price increases come and to what extent varies.

What is certain is that it will start in autumn.

What is the state doing?

It already finances the Gazprom-Germania subsidiaries and will do the same for Uniper, although the owner company Fortum should of course continue to step in.

This is already costing taxpayers and gas customers tens of billions.

The state is thus attacking at the very front of the value chain, which is good because then domino effects can be avoided along the value chain all the way to the customer.

Nevertheless, differences will have to be passed on.

Exactly how remains to be clarified.

One thing is clear: consumers should definitely save.

also read

Gas crisis in Germany: New law could now give consumers a nasty surprise

Pensioners, families and trainees: Now there's money from the state

What is the biggest lever?

Decrease the heated area.

With our warm apartments we live very luxuriously.

In the past, only one room or a maximum of two rooms was fully heated at a time.

We should do that again because it helps a lot more than lowering the overall temperature in all the rooms just a little bit.

Long after that comes the consumption of hot water, i.e. showering.

From time to time you can therefore continue to bathe.

Fan heaters are sold out in many places.

And that's going to be a problem, because if gas-based district heating goes down, a lot of people will be using it too.

Fan heaters need about two kilowatts of power.

So you need an entire nuclear power plant to run 500,000 fan heaters.

Winter warning: "We have to connect everything we have to the grid"

However, the head of the Federal Network Agency emphasized that we have a gas problem, not an electricity problem.

That is not right.

In the worst case, we have to import around seven gigawatts of electricity to Bavaria during the dark doldrums.

Coal-fired power plants may be able to supply some of this, but the base load supply is also getting tight.

That's why we should definitely let our last nuclear power plant in Bavaria, Isar II, continue to run for a while.

Isar II could contribute ten percent to the power required in Bavaria.

Because if all households now plug their heaters into the socket, the power supply will be tight.

Anyone who is afraid of having to freeze in winter should rather buy an electric blanket – it only needs 100 watts.

Can we hope for our neighboring countries?

The French nuclear power plants have to be rehabilitated and – as is so often the case in summer – have too little cooling water, so we have to supply France as well.

If we look at Italy, it doesn't get any better: 50 percent electricity generation from gas, 14 percent from run-of-river power plants.

Now they have drought and not enough gas.

We saw it with Corona: When things get tight, everyone is next to themselves.

All the energy that we can generate in Bavaria is important, mainly because we hardly have any coal-fired power plants.

Apparently that hasn't reached everyone yet.

Anyone who still claims that we don't have to connect everything we have to the grid I'll be happy to talk to in person after next winter.

Interview: Matthew Schneider