Putin weakened in Syria: Erdogan now sees his chance - is he provoking a conflict with NATO?

Created: 07/20/2022, 11:01 am

By: Stephanie Munk

The meeting between Putin, Erdogan and Iran's President Raisi is about Syria.

Erdogan could use the summit for his own interests in power - and exploit a disadvantage that Putin has.

Tehran - The war in Syria dominated the headlines for years.

Around 6.7 million Syrians have left their country, which has been in civil war since 2011.

But for some time it has become quiet around the country in the Middle East - especially since Russia's attack on Ukraine has brought war to Europe again.

But on Tuesday (June 19), the situation in Syria is the main topic at the meeting of three powerful statesmen: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi meet in Tehran.

Erdogan in particular could try to push his own interests through - and take advantage of the fact that Putin's influence in Syria has been significantly weakened by the Ukraine war.

Erdogan (2nd from left) and Ebrahim Raisi (left), President of Iran, inspect the honor guard during a welcoming ceremony at Saadabad Palace on Tuesday, July 19.

The Turkish President has landed in Tehran for a summit with Putin and Raisi.

© Vahid Salemi/AP/dpa

Putin, Erdogan and Raisi meet - all three states have their own interests in Syria

All three states have military representation in Syria: Putin and Raisi support Syrian President Assad, who controls most parts of the country with an iron fist.

According to a dossier from the Federal Agency for Civic Education, Assad would not be able to remain in power without military aid from Russia and Iran.

Erdogan, on the other hand, is on the side of some rebel groups.

The three powers have been working together in the so-called Astana format since 2017 - officially in the spirit of a peace solution for Syria, but also due to their own geostrategic interests.

And Erdogan probably wants to push through these interests at the crisis summit on Tuesday.

At least that's what experts expect.

For a few weeks now, the Turkish President has been announcing a new offensive in Syria - with the aim of pushing back the Syrian-Kurdish organization YPG in northern Syria.

Because Erdogan sees them as supporters of the PKK and thus as a threat to his country.

Russia and Iran warn Erdogan against military action in Syria

However, Putin and Raisi had recently warned Erdogan of a new military action in Syria: This could lead to a "dangerous deterioration of the situation in Syria", according to the Russian government.

And Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also warned Turkey against an offensive: it would be "definitely harmful to Syria, Turkey and the region," Khamenei said in a statement Tuesday, July 19.

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But Erdogan could still take advantage of the moment: Putin has been weakened since the Ukraine war in Syria, many of his soldiers and resources are tied up in Ukraine.

Mercenaries from the private security company Wagner and Syrian mercenaries are said to have attracted Putin to Ukraine.

Then there are the international sanctions against Russia.

The balance of power in Syria appears to have shifted.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: This is the President of Turkey

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Erdogan has not yet imposed sanctions on Russia - he could use that as leverage

According to experts, Erdogan could cleverly use this power vacuum and push through his offensive in northern Syria with Putin and Raisi despite their resistance.

Turkey is hoping for a "green light" from Russia and Iran for the military operation, says Turkey expert Sinan Ülgen from the Carnegie Institute: "Turkey wants to use the airspace in the region, but it is controlled by Russia."

Vladimir Putin (l), President of Russia, welcomes Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

(Archive) © Alexey Nikolsky / Sputnik / dpa

One possible means of pressure Erdogan could use against Putin is that it is crucial for Russia that Turkey does not also join the Western sanctions.

Although Erdogan condemns the Ukraine war and supplies arms to Ukraine, he has not yet imposed any sanctions.

Instead, he acts as a mediator in the conflict, such as last week's Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul over grain shipments blocked by the war.

Erdogan wants military action in Syria - and thus provokes NATO

With a military intervention in Syria against the YPG, however, Erdogan would also create discord in NATO, which is actually intent on maximum unity in view of the Ukraine war.

Because: The YPG was supported by the USA and other international partners in the Syrian war in the fight against the terrorist militia IS.

The White House is therefore watching Erdogan's plans with concern, according to a report by Die

.

If the Syrian-Kurdish forces of the YPG soon had to fight Turkish soldiers, their fight against radical Islamists would be hampered.

It is possible that thousands of IS terrorists would escape from Kurdish-guarded prisons in Syria.

"We are firmly opposed to any Turkish operation in northern Syria and have made our objections to Turkey clear," said Dana Stroul, the US Defense Department's Middle East officer.