Historic federal election?

Survey predicts next change of government - FDP in free fall

Created: 2022-07-21 05:22

By: Tom Offinger

Questioning looks from Robert Habeck (left) and Olaf Scholz (right): How would the Germans vote?

© dpa |

Michael Kappeler

Three years before the next federal election, a current survey is causing a stir: Germany could face a historic election night in September 2025.

Berlin - It's still three years away, but it's never too early to make a forecast: Germany will elect a new Bundestag and possibly also a new Federal Chancellor by September 2025 at the latest.

If you believe a recent survey by

and

, another change of government could be imminent.

It could be a historic election.

Survey on the federal election: forecast promises historic result

In the survey conducted by

, a majority of Germans want the incumbent Economics Minister as the new Federal Chancellor, Green politician Robert Habeck.

Should this forecast actually come true, Habeck would be the first Chancellor from the ranks of the Greens and at the same time the first head of government who does not come from the ranks of the Union or SPD.

In a direct election, 31 percent of the citizens surveyed would vote for the 52-year-old, who would outdo the current incumbent Olaf Scholz (SPD; 26 percent) and CDU leader Friedrich Merz (17 percent).

If only Scholz and Merz were on the ballot paper, the majority of the test persons with 40 percent would choose the SPD politician, only 18 percent of the votes would go to the CDU man.

Meanwhile, not much is happening in the party landscape: the FDP continues to shrink and is now only at six percent (previous week: seven percent), the Social Democrats are meanwhile cracking the 20 percent mark again after they were at 19 percentage points last week lay.

The top position still belongs to the Union with 26 percent, only two points behind are the Greens in wait.

With currently five percent, the left would have to tremble about entering the Bundestag, the AfD would move into the German parliament with nine percent for the third time in a row.

Despite the minimal changes, it is important to note that this information should not be overinterpreted - a statistical error tolerance of around 2.5 percentage points is always within the realm of possibility.

Poll for federal elections: Ukraine war still a dominant topic

In addition to the current political mood in the country, the survey also inquired about the current top issues of Germans.

Almost two-thirds of those surveyed (69 percent) are particularly interested in energy prices, followed by the war in Ukraine (53 percent) and finally, after a large gap, the Corona crisis with “just” 23 percentage points.

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Majority support remains for the delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine, but support has fallen to 52 percent from 56 percent the previous week.

Among the supporters of the respective party, support is highest for the Greens (73 percent) and the FDP (71%), followed by the third governing party SPD with 61 percentage points, then the CDU/CSU (59%).

The greatest rejection, on the other hand, can be observed in the AfD: 78 percent reject the delivery of heavy weapons - this is a correspondence to the mood in East Germany,

suspects : There, almost two-thirds currently reject such an approach.