The British "Financial Times" quoted six sources as saying on July 18 that the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi plans to lead a delegation to visit Taiwan in August this year.
Pelosi's office has not confirmed plans for the visit.
Previously, Pelosi had planned to visit Taiwan in April, but the trip was postponed after testing positive for the new crown virus.
In response to Pelosi's planned visit to Taiwan in August, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian pointed out on July 19 that if House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan, it will seriously violate the one-China principle and the three Sino-US joint communiques, and seriously damage China. Sovereignty and territorial integrity have seriously impacted the political foundation of Sino-US relations and sent a serious wrong signal to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. China firmly opposes this.
Zhao Lijian emphasized that China requires the U.S. to abide by the one-China principle and the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques, not to arrange for Speaker Pelosi to visit Taiwan, to stop official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, to stop creating factors that make the situation in the Taiwan Strait tense, and to take concrete actions to fulfill the U.S. Commitment to support "Taiwan independence".
If the U.S. goes its own way, China will take resolute and forceful measures to firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the U.S. must be fully responsible for all the consequences.
Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, made remarks suggesting that the PLA fighter jets "accompany" Pelosi's special plane.
He said, "I believe that China's countermeasures will be overwhelming. We will not accept this rude and rash move by the United States to support "Taiwan independence," but will definitely tell the United States clearly that they are making a subversive mistake.
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"The PLA fighter jets can choose to 'fly' with Pelosi's special plane at an appropriate distance, enter the island of Taiwan at the same time, skim over the airfield where they landed, and then cross the island of Taiwan to return to the mainland. The possibility of direct military conflict is very high. Small, and once the PLA fighter jets fly into and cross the island of Taiwan, it will be a more landmark precedent than Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. In that case, we should probably thank Pelosi instead, who created the PLA fighter jets to fly over the island of Taiwan The opportunity opened up a new space for the PLA fighter jets to exercise sovereignty over the island of Taiwan."
A White House spokesman declined to comment, but said the United States both abides by the "one China principle" and supports the Taiwan authorities "rock solid."
Taiwan's foreign ministry said in a press release that U.S. President Joe Biden made a "special trip" to send former U.S. Senator Todd, former Deputy Secretary of State Armitage and Steinberg on board from April 14 to 16, 2021 Executive plane to visit Taiwan.
The US delegation arrived in Taiwan on the afternoon of April 14.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Wu Zhaoxie (second from right) and AIT Director Li Yingjie (first from right) went to pick up the plane.
(Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
It is worth noting that if Pelosi's visit to Taiwan takes place, it will be the first visit by a speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to Taiwan in 25 years.
The last time the U.S. made such a move was in 1997, when Newt Gingrich, then the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, led a delegation to Taiwan.
People are generally concerned about whether Pelosi's visit will have a major impact on the situation in the Taiwan Strait and whether it will trigger an overwhelming retaliation from the Beijing authorities.
Since the establishment of the Communist Party of China, five crises have broken out in the Taiwan Strait: the first two occurred in 1955 and 1958, respectively, resulting in low-intensity cross-strait military conflicts; the third was from Lee Teng-hui's visit to the United States in 1995 to the end of the Taiwan election in 1996. , a missile crisis occurred in the Taiwan Strait; for the fourth time, after Lee Teng-hui proposed the "two-state theory" in 1999, the People's Liberation Army held military exercises in the southeastern coastal areas.
Since Chen Shui-bian introduced the "Taiwan Independence Timetable" at the end of 2003, the Taiwan Strait has entered its fifth crisis period, and the Beijing authorities have vigorously introduced the Anti-Secession Law, which has provided a legal basis for taking strong measures.
During this time when Tsai Ing-wen is in power, whether the Taiwan Strait will detonate the sixth round of crisis deserves attention.
When Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997, there was little response from Chinese officials except for Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Shen Guofang's remarks.
Gingrich's visit to Taiwan did not affect Sino-US relations at the time. In April 1997, then Chinese Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Qian Qishen visited the United States, and in May John Shalikashvili, Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited China , Jiang Zemin's visit to the United States in October is the first visit to the United States by a Chinese head of state in 12 years.
The mainland's response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this time obviously cannot refer to Gingrich's visit to the United States 25 years ago.
At that time, the Taiwan Strait had just experienced the missile crisis initiated by Lee Teng-hui's visit to the United States in 1995. The situation in the Taiwan Strait in 1997 was in the stage of calm and recovery, so there was no need to fight back aggressively.
On August 9, 2020, US Health Secretary Alex Azar arrived in Taiwan for a visit.
(AP)
The root cause of several Taiwan Strait crises over the past few decades was the manipulation of the Taiwan authorities. For example, in the 1960s, Taiwan attempted to counterattack the mainland.
Around the New Year's Eve, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian tried to push for Taiwan's independence.
Right now, the core manipulator of the situation in the Taiwan Strait is actually the United States.
The United States regards Taiwan as a bargaining chip to check the rise of China, and constantly plays the Taiwan issue, and uses the support of the United States to incite the Tsai Ing-wen authorities to confront the mainland.
If Pelosi visits Taiwan, China's response is essentially how to handle Sino-US relations.
Although Tsai Ing-wen's authorities have always been open to Taiwan independence, Taiwan has not dared to act rashly militarily in recent years in view of the growing disparity in power across the Taiwan Strait.
What Beijing needs to consider is whether it is ready to detonate a small-scale hot war between China and the United States before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China?
If the situation is not well controlled, is Beijing ready to retake Taiwan now?
It is a fact that the one-China policy of the United States is being hollowed out, the pace of arms sales to Taiwan is accelerating, and the specifications of American officials visiting Taiwan are constantly breaking through.
Beijing is bound to take measures to curb the trend of the US hollowing out the one-China policy.
The question is what pace and rhythm to deal with.
Can diplomatic negotiations be used to resolve conflicts?
Has it reached the point where military measures are required?
Beijing is well aware that Pelosi is House Speaker, not a White House aide.
Members of Parliament and Speakers first consider voter votes, not international relations.
Even Joe Biden needs to deal with anti-China sentiment at home, and it is difficult for the White House to effectively control the choice of Congress.
In June 1960, US President Eisenhower visited Taiwan and met Chiang Kai-shek in Taipei.
During Eisenhower's visit to Taiwan, the Chinese People's Liberation Army launched a 619 artillery battle against Kinmen.
(Image sourced from World War II Database website)
When public opinion heatedly debated whether Pelosi would visit Taiwan, Nicola Beer, the vice-president of the European Parliament, led a delegation to visit Taiwan on July 19.
Congressmen from many countries have visited Taiwan since last year.
On November 28, 2021, MPs from Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia arrived in Taiwan for a visit.
On November 9, 2021, more than 10 people including US Senators John Cornyn and Mike Crapo took a US Air Force military plane to visit Taiwan. On November 3, 2021, multinational members of the European Parliament A 13-member delegation from the Special Committee on Foreign Interventions in the European Union's Democratic Process (INGE) visited Taiwan.
On October 6, 2021, French Senator Alain Richard and his party of five visited Taiwan.
On August 30, 2020, Czech Senate President Milo Vystril led 89 people to visit Taiwan.
Deteriorating the relationship between the two governments because of the actions of one country's parliament, and then closing down one government to influence the parliament, is not an effective way to solve the problem.
When a country's government leaders are relatively weak, it is difficult to effectively influence the actions within the party, and they may even be coerced by decisions within the party.
Beijing's stance against Pelosi's visit will not change.
However, what measures to take to actively curb the hollowing out of the one-China policy in the United States still requires careful consideration.
After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently held a five-hour long conversation in Bali, Indonesia, Blinken said Biden and Xi were expected to speak in the coming weeks.
On July 20, Biden also said that he expected to call Xi Jinping in the next 10 days.
Judging from the official communication between China and the United States, the situation may not develop to the point where Pelosi's visit will be completed, and the PLA fighter jets will be required to accompany her to be deterred.
Biden: The military believes that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan at this time is not a good idea. Pelosi said that he will visit Taiwan. Hu Xijin suggested that the PLA fighter plane "accompany" the US plane to fly over Taiwan. at your own risk
