Ukraine counteroffensive: will Putin respond with nuclear weapons?
military experts concerned
Created: 07/21/2022 05:18
By: Tom Offinger
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons.
Military experts suspect that the coming weeks could be decisive.
Kyiv/Munich - Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war on February 24 this year, the world has been facing an uncertain future.
As one of the first reactions to the harsh Western sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin put his nuclear forces on alert.
To this day, the threat of a nuclear conflict still looms over what is happening in Ukraine, but nothing has actually happened yet.
The threat is far from banned, experts suspect that the likelihood of an escalation is increasing.
Is Putin using nuclear weapons?
Counter-offensive could pose dangers
It will come, the only question is when: A Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway to recapture the areas in the south and east of the country that were occupied by Russia.
In particular, the regions around Cherson, Zaporizhia and the separatist areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are targeted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Officially, the areas are only occupied, Russia has not yet annexed them, but that could be a major risk.
In a document published on July 19, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suspects that Russian doctrine could certainly make it possible to use nuclear weapons for defense after an annexation.
These plans could be announced directly or indirectly by Putin once the affected areas would be connected.
"This threat of nuclear attack could then be used against Ukraine and its partners should counter-offensives to liberate Russian-held territory continue," the document suggests.
A Russian Topol ICBM at an armaments exhibition.
© YNA/dpa
Reconquest of Ukraine: West probably has little time
The institute further assumes that Putin is convinced that this saber-rattling will restore Russia's deterrence, especially since the previous invasion was disastrous with countless casualties.
"There may be a very small window for Ukraine and its partners to implement a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the occupied territories before the Kremlin actually moves forward with an annexation of the regions," the document concludes.
Nuclear Powers and Nuclear Weapons in Their Possession 2021 © dpa
With around 6,255 nuclear warheads, Russia still had the largest nuclear arsenal in the world in 2021
(source: dpa
).
That's about 800 more such weapons than the United States possesses.
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