In Israel, the laws of gravity of the earth are different from the rest of the world.
For example, Menachem Begin, peace be upon him, is not responsible for the First Lebanon War, even though he was prime minister and decided to go to war.
Although Golda Meir was prime minister, she was not responsible for the outbreak of the Yom Kippur war, and a report was written about this by an investigative committee.
In contrast, Binyamin Netanyahu is responsible for the fire on the Carmel and also for the disaster at the marking of the Rashbi's tomb on Mount Meron, for the simple reason that he was the prime minister.
Netanyahu at the investigative committee: "I didn't know there was a safety problem in Miron" // Photo: L.A.M
The atmosphere 100 days before the upcoming elections is irrational.
Since 2019, large parts of the voters consider their vote from extreme psychological motives, which are the result of continuous influence operations in the networks and television propaganda centers.
Despite everything, although the polls paint a picture that as if nothing has changed in the party map, there are nevertheless significant changes.
In the March 2021 elections, Likud received 30 mandates.
Today Likud is around 35 plus or minus.
And he can approach 40 if he organizes well for a ground operation in the party's strongholds.
In Likud there is an acknowledgment that this time everything depends on the turnout, and on this issue the left has a permanent advantage.
The increase in Likud's power in the polls shows that many right-wing voters feel a shock from the very establishment of a government headed by Yair Lapid today.
Right-wing voters are living in turmoil from Netanyahu's trial tricks.
Another change resulting from this upheaval is the transformation of Itamar Ben Gabir into a popular media star.
It all depends on the turnout.
Likud activists conference in Petah Tikva, July 2022, photo: Yossi Zeliger
Despite the media image of an all-out war on the right, those who come into contact with right-wingers from the field understand the drift towards Ben Gabir, who probably won't stop at ten mandates.
Religious Zionism has become the guardian of the ultra-Orthodox parties on the right.
The more the voters suspect that those parties are not loyal to the right-wing bloc, the more the drift towards Smotrich and Ben Gvir will increase.
What hasn't changed is the great asset of Israeli democracy, which is a major axis party in the form of the Likud.
As long as there are manipulations to bypass the Likud and boycott the political center of gravity in Israel, the instability and the inability to form a government capable of deciding on a policy and carrying it out will continue.
In most Western democracies, the main major parties disbanded, and as a result the regime itself was undermined.
Most voters are aware that the continuation of Yair Lapid's term as Prime Minister depends on Sami Shahada, depends on Balad, the Muslim Brotherhood and possibly Abu Mazen.
The battle is between them.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Yair Lapid (archive), photo: Mark Israel Salem
But we said irrational considerations.
Does the vision of the barren union between Gideon Sa'ar and Bnei Gantz teach a certain lesson for Meretz and the work in the unification efforts between them?
Gantz and Saar may end up being smaller than "religious Zionism", although "now it is Gantz's turn to be prime minister".
The main task of the parties is to wake up their voters, with the focus this time being between two candidates for prime minister - Netanyahu or Lapid.
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