Ex-Merkel adviser will soon see an irrevocable advantage for Putin - "Then we no longer need to negotiate"
Created: 07/24/2022, 13:28
By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi
According to ex-Merkel adviser Erich Vad, Putin's troops have an advantage in the Ukraine war.
He fears that his chances of negotiation may soon come to an end.
Munich — In the Ukraine conflict, Vladimir Putin's troops are now concentrating on the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk.
After capturing Luhansk, Russia intends to quickly capture the neighboring region as well.
For the Kremlin, it would be the next critical milestone of the invasion.
This map shows where the Ukraine war is raging.
Meanwhile, Ukraine wants to liberate the Russian-occupied areas in the south of the country, especially Cherson, with a counter-offensive.
Ex-adviser to the former Chancellor Angela Merkel and former Brigadier General Erich Vad sees only limited chances for a Ukrainian success.
In an interview, he drew attention to the military advantage of the Russian army - and even warned against the end of the negotiation possibilities.
According to ex-Brigadier General Erich Vad, Putin's military has a military advantage in Ukraine.
(Archive photo) © Sergei Ilnitsky/dpa
Ukraine-News: Advantage of the Russian army - but limited Ukrainian successes in the south
Vad now sees the Russian army as having a clear logistical advantage.
Although the Ukrainian armed forces are "bravely" fighting with Western weapons such as anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, Russia has "escalation dominance," he explained in an interview with
Stern
magazine : "You can follow along with any number of soldiers, battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, aircraft.
They have their logistics base right behind them, in the hinterland.” Ukraine does not enjoy such a privilege.
In addition, Russia has “air supremacy in the entire area”.
All of this makes military operations a challenge for the Ukrainian side, according to Vad.
Nevertheless, Kyiv speaks of an army of one million men, which is to counterattack the Russian troops and drive them out of southern Ukraine and recapture the area.
In Cherson there were already first attacks on Russian units and attempts to advance.
Vad also confirmed this.
"The Ukrainians are already making regionally limited, successful counter-offensives," he told
Stern
.
After all, Russian troops are not optimally positioned on the south coast, as their focus is currently on the Donbass.
According to Vad, the announced large-scale offensive with the army of millions is not reality.
He sees a somewhat different military situation.
The retired brigadier general had already warned in mid-April about the delivery of heavy weapons to the Ukraine - at the time he spoke of the "path to the Third World War".
Ukraine-News: Ex-Merkel adviser Vad sees "last chance for negotiations" and "great danger"
"The Russians also largely control the Black Sea coast," emphasized Vad, referring to Russian naval blockades around Odessa.
The former brigadier general held out the prospect of a possible "operational pause" by the Russian side "in order to regroup, bring in new forces."
With a view to this possible pause, Vad warned against a definitive end to the negotiations.
In his estimation, diplomatic negotiations for Moscow may soon become superfluous.
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The break is "the last chance for possible negotiations with Russia," he emphasized to
Stern
, adding: "If we let it pass and it almost looks like it, then the Russians won't pay any more attention to it either." Because after this pause, Putin's troops could advance to the Dnieper, possibly occupy Odessa and control the entire Black Sea coast, Vad further explained.
The result, according to the ex-brigadier general: "Then they have achieved their goals by military means and then they no longer need to negotiate." Russia will incorporate the entire region.
Vad spoke of a "great danger" at this point.
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Ukraine news: Vad advises Ukraine to switch to "guerrilla mode" and warns of nuclear escalation
So what can Ukraine do about this threat?
Vad called it a "fight to gain time".
In order to improve its starting point for negotiations, Ukraine must prolong the war - "even months and maybe years with the help of Western weapons".
Only in this way and with a partisan war does Kyiv have a chance militarily.
The ex-Merkel advisor particularly emphasized the switch to a "guerrilla mode" and drew comparisons to the wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam to emphasize the success of this strategy: "They certainly have a chance there." According to Vad, the whole thing would have also a certain price.
"I wouldn't wish that on Ukraine," he said. "It would end up being devastated." There is also an enormous risk of a nuclear escalation, which is why negotiations should be sought from a European perspective.
"Even if that doesn't look good right now," Vad admitted.
(bb)
