Ukraine: MI6 sure - Russian offensive will grind to a halt

Created: 2022-07-25Updated: 2022-07-25 12:19 PM

By: Christoph Gschoßmann, Franziska Schwarz

Great Britain's secret service predicts difficult weeks of war for Moscow.

Kyiv is to get more heavy weapons from the USA.

News ticker on military events in the Ukraine war.

• British secret service assesses situation: Russian offensive should come to a standstill.

• Russia

  continues

  shelling

  : Moscow's military continues to target targets in the south and east.

• Russian Losses

  in

  Kharkiv

  : Putin's troops in Kharkiv appear to be fighting with heavy casualties.

• This is a

  news ticker

   on the military situation in the 

  Ukraine conflict

  .

  Here is the background to the Ukraine war.

Update from July 22, 10:59 a.m

.: The Canadian military also sees problems with the Russian troops.

All further developments in our new news ticker on the military situation in the Ukraine war.

Update from July 21, 9:10 p.m .:

The Russian military will probably be forced to suspend its offensive in Ukraine in the coming weeks – said the head of the British foreign intelligence service MI6, Richard Moore, on Thursday.

This would give the Ukrainians an opportunity to counterattack.

"I think they're about to run out of breath," Moore said of Russia

at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado , according to the

“Our assessment is that the Russians will find it increasingly difficult to find workers and material in the coming weeks.

They have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians an opportunity to strike back.” Moore said Russian President Vladimir Putin had failed to achieve his initial war goals and was forced to adopt a slow-paced strategy.

In practice, Russian forces have made little headway since taking the city of Lysyhansk in early July, when defense officials in Moscow announced a brief "pause in operations."

Russian forces are now advancing incrementally, Moore said, only taking Ukrainian cities after destroying them with artillery fire.

Ukraine war: Britain shares new weapons list

Update from July 21, 2:55 p.m .:

Britain is again supporting Ukraine with weapons in its fight against the Russian attack, as announced by the Ministry of Defense in London.

Accordingly, the following equipment is to be delivered:

• 20 M109 self-propelled howitzers

• 36 L119 guns

• 50,000 rounds of ammunition for old artillery pieces

• Hundreds of drones

• artillery reconnaissance radar

"The scale and breadth of the equipment we are providing demonstrates the strength of our resolve," Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace said in a statement.

Britain is one of the largest arms suppliers to Ukraine.

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Russia continues shelling - targets in southern and eastern Ukraine in sight

Update from July 21, 2:15 p.m .:

According to its own statements, the Russian military fired on several targets in the south and east of Ukraine.

In the past 24 hours, a total of nine command posts had been hit in the Mykolaiv and Donetsk regions, said Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov.

In addition, six weapons depots were destroyed and a fighter plane and a helicopter were shot down.

This could not be verified independently.

Konashenkov also spoke of more than 600 fighters who are said to have been killed in an airstrike in the southern Ukrainian region of Odessa last Saturday.

Among them were up to 120 foreign mercenaries, he said.

There is no confirmation of this information from the Ukrainian side.

Ukraine-News: Moscow blames Kyiv for attack on Russian territory

Update from July 21, 12:48 p.m

.: The Russian border region of Belgorod blames the Ukrainian side for an attack that killed a civilian.

On Wednesday (July 20), the villages of Nekhoteyevka and Zhuravlevka were shelled, the governor in charge said.

The OSCE's Electoral and Human Rights Office, ODIHR, has meanwhile accused the Russian troops of serious and widespread violations of international humanitarian law.

The experts were also appalled by the siege of cities.

Witnesses reported many cases of illegal executions, detentions, torture, sexual violence and kidnappings.

Ukraine-News: Experts document massive breaches of international law by Russia

The Ukrainian army also violated international humanitarian law, albeit to a lesser extent, the report said.

Violence against suspected looters was criticized.

Both sides would also violate applicable international law when dealing with prisoners of war.

The US foreign intelligence service CIA currently estimates the number of dead on the Russian side in the Ukraine war at 15,000.

The 53-page body of material was specifically identified as an ODIHR report, not an OSCE report.

The largest security organization in Europe has been largely paralyzed by the conflict with key member Russia.

The invader Russia repeatedly complains of shelling on its own territory.

The Ukrainian side usually does not comment on these allegations.

The Ukraine war claims human lives.

Many soldiers also died on the Russian side.

© picture alliance/dpa/Ukrinform

Ukraine-News: USA wants to deliver more multiple rocket launchers

Update from July 21, 6:42 a.m .:

The United States wants to deliver four more Himars multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine.

This was announced by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during online consultations of the so-called Ukraine Contact Group from dozens of countries.

The Himars missile launchers that have been delivered so far have "made so much difference on the battlefield," Austin said.

The US would also provide additional weapons, ammunition and equipment, including missiles and artillery shells, as part of the next package for Ukraine.

More details will be announced during the week.

Meanwhile, the US foreign intelligence agency CIA estimates that 15,000 people have already died on the Russian side in the war against Ukraine.

In addition, the Russians are expected to have three times as many wounded, said CIA Director William Burns on Wednesday (local time) at a panel discussion during a security conference in Aspen, Colorado.

“And the Ukrainians also suffered - probably a little less.

But, you know, significant casualties," Burns said.

There is no current information from the official authorities in Russia on the number of deaths.

Ukraine War: More heavy fighting around Donetsk and Kharkiv

Update from July 20, 9:35 p.m .:

In the Ukraine war, Russia and Ukraine continue to fight hard.

In the meantime, the Ukrainian general staff referred in its evening report to around half a dozen front sections where Russian troops apparently wanted to advance.

In the Donetsk region there were storm attempts near Wuhledar, Marjinka, Avdiivka and along the line between Siwersk and Bakhmut, it said.

In the neighboring Kharkiv region, attacks north of the region's capital were repelled.

At the same time, according to Ukrainian information, dozens of places were shelled by the Russian army with artillery or bombed by the air force. 

Russian losses in Kharkiv - Putin's troops apparently have problems

Update from July 20, 6:15 p.m .:

According to Ukrainian information, the Russian military is suffering heavy losses in fighting in the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv.

“Our forces are fighting in the north of the region.

The enemy is constantly trying to advance deep, but our military is repelling these attacks,”

Kharkiv military governor Oleg Sinegubov was quoted as saying by the Ukrainian state agency Ukrinform

According to him, the Russian military is retreating to previously occupied positions and is suffering heavy casualties, especially around the city of Izyum.

At the same time, he emphasized that Russia still wants to bring the entire Kharkiv region under control.

Ukraine-News: Fighting between Ukrainian army and Putin's troops continues

Update from July 20, 9:51 a.m

.: At the front, the battles in Ukraine continue uninterrupted.

Fighting is taking place in the south and east of the country.

Neither of the two parties to the conflict was able to achieve strategically important advances.

However, according to Ukrainian information, the Russian armed forces made further gains in the battles for the Donbass.

"The enemy launched an assault in the Pokrovske area, was partially successful and established itself on the southern outskirts of the village," the Ukrainian General Staff said in its situation report.

Pokrovske is a settlement ten kilometers east of the important transport junction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

The Siwersk-Soledar-Bakhmut line is considered to be Ukraine's next line of defense in front of the conurbation around the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

US secret service on the Ukraine war: Russia wants "sham referendums" before the end of this year

Update from July 20, 6:16 a.m .:

The US government is firmly convinced that Russia wants to annex more areas in Ukraine.

The action on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in 2014 serves as a model, said John Kirby, the communications director of the National Security Council in the White House, on Tuesday (July 19).

It said it had intelligence information that indicated Russia was planning to hold "sham referendums."

Part of this is the establishment of Russian bank branches in the affected regions in order to introduce the ruble as a currency there.

A control of the Internet access is therefore also part of it.

In addition, Moscow wants to force people to apply for Russian citizenship.

"The Kremlin has not announced the schedule for the referendums, but Russian officials in those areas claim they will take place later this year, possibly in conjunction with September's Russian regional elections," Kirby added.

He named the Cherson and Zaporizhia regions as well as the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions as affected regions.

The Kremlin has not yet confirmed such plans.

However, the administrations deployed by Russia in the occupied territories have repeatedly stated that they want to hold referendums on accession to Russia.

In the Zaporizhia region in south-eastern Ukraine, a date was set for early September.

In Cherson, southern Ukraine, the Russian occupiers used the ruble as a means of payment in May in order to integrate the region more closely into their own economic area.

Russia advances in Donbass: troops approach defensive line in front of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk

Update from July 19, 8:30 p.m .:

According to Ukrainian information, the Russian armed forces made further gains in the battles for the Donbass in eastern Ukraine.

"The enemy launched an assault in the Pokrovske area, was partially successful and established itself on the southern outskirts of the village," the Ukrainian General Staff said in its situation report.

Pokrovske is a settlement ten kilometers east of the important transport junction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

The Siwersk - Soledar - Bakhmut line is considered to be Ukraine's next line of defense in front of the conurbation around the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

According to their own statements, the Ukrainian military has managed to repel the Russian attacks on other front sections in the Donbass.

The attacks were unsuccessful both north of Slowjansk and east of Siwersk.

"The Ukrainian fighters inflicted significant losses on the occupiers," says the situation report at one point.

The information cannot be verified independently.

Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February.

In addition to the Luhansk region, the Russian army is also aiming to conquer the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

In the south of Ukraine, in the Kherson region, the General Staff reports artillery and tank battles without changing the front line.

Ukraine-News: Medvedev accuses Western countries of "political impotence"

Update from July 19, 4:41 p.m .:

Ex-Kremlin boss and Putin predecessor Dmitry Medvedev accuses western countries of political impotence.

The former Russian president (until May 2012) leaves no doubt that his country will ultimately win the war in Ukraine.

He also criticizes the arms deliveries from Western countries to the war region.

Update from July 19, 2:02 p.m .:

Ukraine and Russia have again exchanged several dozen bodies of killed soldiers in the current war.

"Ukraine has brought back 45 of its defenders," said the ministry responsible in Kyiv.

The exchange was carried out in accordance with the norms of the Geneva Convention.

Details were not given.

A member of the occupation administration of the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhia confirmed to the Russian state news agency Ria Novosti that the exchange was based on the “45 for 45” formula.

Nuclear power plant incident in the Ukraine war: Mayor reports deaths

Kyiv - Several people died in an incident at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant.

At least nine Russian soldiers were also injured, according to Dmytro Orlov.

This is reported by the US news channel CNN.

The information could not initially be independently verified.

Orlov is the elected mayor of occupied Enerhodar in Ukraine.

The small town is located near the Zaporizhia region in southern Ukraine and is the site of Europe's largest nuclear power plant.

The facility has been under the control of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin's military for around four months. 

In the course of the invasion, Russian units also took over the exclusion zone around the Chernobyl accident reactor.

However, they withdrew again at the end of March.

A Russian soldier guards the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar (archive image) © IMAGO/Konstantin Mihalchevskiy/SNA

Secret service on military affairs: shortage of personnel in Russia's troops

Meanwhile, Russian troops are suffering from “severe undermanning”.

This problem will "probably become acute" for them, according to the daily intelligence update on the British Ministry of Defense Twitter account.

Russian military strategists are now faced with the "dilemma" of whether to send the soldiers to fight in the Donbass in the east or to use them to repel the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson in the south-west. 

Since the start of the Ukraine war at the end of February, the British government has regularly published intelligence information about its course.

Moscow accuses London of a targeted disinformation campaign.