China's lesson from Russia's war in Ukraine

An announcement about Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan raised tensions between China and the US due to sharp threats from China. But China is in a dilemma: on the one hand, it must prove its strength in the region, and on the other hand, it has learned from Russia's bitter experience in the ongoing war in Ukraine

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07/26/2022

Tuesday, July 26, 2022, 12:49 p.m. Updated: 1:08 p.m.

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Exchanges of verbal blows between the United States and China are nothing new, but this week it seems that the level of tension has gone up a notch, against the background of a planned visit by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the American House of Representatives, to Taiwan next month.

The visit of the third most important figure in American politics to the island that China wants to control is now raising concerns in Washington about China's possible reaction, especially after its threats to use "resolute and strong measures" if the visit goes ahead.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Pelosi's visit "will have serious negative consequences" on US-China relations.

"If the United States insists on the visit, China will act forcefully in response and take countermeasures, we mean what we say."

According to many in Washington, including President Joe Biden, visiting Taiwan "is not a good idea right now."

Administration officials have expressed concern about the possibility that China might want to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan to disrupt Pelosi's visit, a source told CNN.

On the other hand, canceling the visit now may be perceived in China as a concession and weakness on the part of the United States.

Strengthens control.

The President of China visiting Hong Kong in June (Photo: Reuters)

Pelosi's visit is symbolically important.

She will be the first speaker of the US House of Representatives to visit Taiwan in 25 years.

Such a step would send a message of solidarity to the democratic regime on the island.

If the visit is canceled, China will see it as a success of its bullying behavior and threats - which is expected to raise renewed concerns among Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and other countries in the region that are troubled by the weakening of the power of the United States.

However, most of all, canceling the visit will have a critical impact in Taiwan, where the issue of American support in the event of a Chinese invasion is an existential issue.

If China manages to intimidate such a senior American official, how serious will the United States be if it has to stop a possible war?

Moreover, the visit of Pelosi, a harsh critic of China, is expected to be held at a time when the country celebrates "Army Day" - the anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army on August 1, 1927. China does not want to appear weak on such a day.

In addition, President Xi is preparing to "run" for a third term at the 20th Congress of the Communist Party to be held in the fall.

Chinese experts warn that because of this, China may also use military force this time.

In video: Biden answers journalists' questions about Taiwan and says there is no change in policy (Photo: Reuters) In video: Biden: The US is ready to use force to protect Taiwan (Photo: Reuters)

Military conflicts in the Taiwan Straits happened in the 1950s, but the last major crisis was in 1995-1996, after the then president of the country, Lee Teng-hui, visited the United States.

An angry China launched missiles into the waters around the island, and the crisis ended only after the United States sent an aircraft carrier to the area as a sign of support for Taipei.

On the other hand, there are experts who believe that China currently has no interest in escalating tensions with the United States - especially against the background of the war that Russia is waging in Ukraine.

William Burns, the head of the American intelligence service, the CIA, said last week that China is watching what is happening in Ukraine and the fact that the fighting has been going on for five months, perhaps contrary to the estimates of President Vladimir Putin who hoped to topple Kyiv within a week.

China realized that "quick and decisive victories cannot be achieved without the necessary force," Burns said at a conference held in Aspen, Colorado.

"I believe that the lesson that the Chinese leadership and the Chinese military are learning is that they must accumulate enormous power if they are considering such a conflict in the future, including strengthening the economy against sanctions."

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The "Belt and Road" initiative (Photo: GettyImages)

China's relations with Europe are also not what they were in the past, something the Asian country did not focus on until recently.

The peak came last month when, at two summits - the 7G summit and the NATO summit - European leaders hardened their stance towards China, as a signal to coordinate positions with the United States.

This is a blow to China, which in its vision maintains prosperous relations with Europe that provide it with support in the face of American power. and the European Union should act as two forces that preserve world peace, and balance the uncertainty in the world," Xi told EU leaders in April, urging them to ignore the "competing bloc mentality." But Europe is instead focused on trying to convince China to act as a peace mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

China is strengthening ties in the Pacific region (Photo: Reuters, Naohiko Hatta/Pool via REUTERS)

China has no one to blame for this.

Its ambitious "Belt and Road" initiative - which aims to create a geographic, land and sea connection between China and the countries of the world, and includes the countries of Eurasia, South and West Asia, Europe and the African continent - is, in other words, the fulfillment of a vision aimed at the expansion of Chinese influence on the world economy.

The initiative raises concerns in the United States but also in Europe.

The violation of human rights in the country towards the Muslim minority and the force it used in Hong Kong against the democratic protest in recent years, led to a change in the European position, according to analysts.

The European Union even declared in 2019 that China is a "systemic competitor".

"China is now demanding that the rest of the world give it the respect it deserves and recognize its positions, regardless of other views," Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, told CNN.

"This approach has caused Western democracies to abandon the decades-old policy of helping China in order to modernize it in the hope of greater economic integration that will make China have interests in world affairs," he said.

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