Is the next Corona wave imminent?
Model calculation shows clear autumn forecast
Created: 07/26/2022, 12:59 p.m
By: Lukas Einkammerer
The corona pandemic will not let up this summer either.
Experts have now made an assessment of how the virus could develop in autumn and winter.
Berlin – More than two years after the outbreak of the corona pandemic, there is still no end in sight this summer.
The corona virus is spreading at breakneck speed and continues to cause high numbers of infections worldwide.
In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) last reported 564,397
New infections within the past seven days.
Although Germany has a remarkable vaccination rate of almost 76 percent, what about immunization?
Corona experts have now published a model that makes a rather mixed forecast for the coming months.
Corona forecast for the summer: the majority of the population has already been immunized
The good news: According to the model calculation that a research team from the Technical University of Berlin has designed for the coming months, a large part of the population is already immunized.
As Sebastian Alexander Müller and Kai Nagel, two of the scientists involved, explained to the
Rheinische Post
, this development was due to vaccinations as well as infections and a combination of the two.
The experts are currently ruling out an overload of the health system - but they warn of the ongoing danger posed by the corona virus.
"Individually, every infection carries the risk of a severe course or long Covid," warn Müller and Nagel, "and according to previous data, this risk seems to reoccur with every infection."
Despite high immunization, caution is still required.
The corona numbers are currently rising sharply in Germany.
According to experts, the situation should improve in the coming weeks, but may deteriorate again in the autumn.
© dpa/Marijan Murat
Corona forecast for the summer: the number of infections should decrease during the holidays - and then increase again
With the start of the summer holidays, many are probably wondering how the pandemic will affect family vacations or other summer plans.
The model by Sebastian Alexander Müller, Kai Nagel and their colleagues actually gives a little hope in this regard.
According to the two experts, a decrease in the current corona wave can be expected during the holidays, mainly due to a decrease in the number of infections at school and at work.
Even if the coming weeks will be a little more relaxed, this could change again soon.
Because according to Müller and Nagel, the end of the holidays and the associated return to the offices and classrooms should bring a renewed increase in the number of infections.
"If the current measures are retained, according to our model, we will also have very high infection rates in autumn and winter," the scientists warn.
(le)
After it was lifted at the beginning of June, sick leave by telephone is to be reintroduced soon.
A Munich corona expert, on the other hand, commented on the fourth corona vaccination.