Although China and the U.S. have already fallen into the "Thucydides Trap", conservative forces with a radical stance on China can't wait to openly announce that they will arm Taiwan, completely end their vague strategic policy toward China, and fight China's military stance to end China. However, in the deep state of the United States, especially within the Biden administration in power, there is still a relatively rational proposition, hoping to prevent China and the United States from falling into a direct military conflict, at least not to cause bilateral relations to completely collapse because of Taiwan.
People should remember Trump's metaphor of "desk and nib", which best reflects the true attitude of the US federal government on the Taiwan issue.
Pelosi's planned visit to Taiwan for two consecutive times was "informed" by the media in advance of the upcoming trip, especially the planned visit to Taiwan in August. The British media who "released" on the issue exposed in advance, and it is not difficult for the outside world to perceive the attitude of the Biden administration to the incident.
About ten days ago, the United States said that Biden was about to talk to Xi Jinping. On the day of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, Biden disregarded the possible delay of the call and "slapped him in the face" and said in person: "President Xi and I will meet in 10 days. Intraphone." He also said that the US military believes that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is "not a good idea", which shows Biden's attitude towards Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
The U.S. ambassador to China immediately suspended his return visit to Washington after the news of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was exposed and returned to Beijing urgently, which more clearly reflects the Biden administration's anxious attitude towards Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan.
In recent months, key cabinet officials in the Biden administration, from National Security Advisor Sullivan to Secretary of State Blinken, from Defense Secretary Austin to Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley to Treasury Secretary Yellen, have been working with their counterparts at the same level as senior Chinese government officials. Frequent meetings and communication are paving the way for the upcoming meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States. Seeing that the submissions for the talks are mature, how can they be willing to be messed up by Pelosi?
Biden, who is in quarantine at the White House due to infection with the new crown pneumonia, attended an economic meeting by video on Monday (25th), during which he expressed his hope to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week.
(AP)
The United States has a system that may seem very illogical in other centralized countries, that is, not only its executive and legislative bodies are two separate skins, and the judiciary forms a system of checks and balances based on the structure of bipartisan profit sharing and competition, but also even if There are always hilltops within a certain political party, and the bigwigs need to play delicate games around specific interests.
From the perspective of Biden's personal character and his overall strategic plan for the US foreign policy towards China, he is definitely not happy to see the collapse of Sino-US relations during his term of office, and Pelosi's visit to Taiwan definitely has the opportunity to induce such a situation. disaster.
In terms of Sino-US relations, Pelosi is definitely a "self-propelled gun" and a repeat offender with some kind of destructive power. Her prejudice and hatred against China have been formed as early as 1989 and are extremely strong.
She is not stingy about leaving another "stand-up" mark on her career before her abdication, so as to leave another impressive feat on the coffin lid of her "anti-communist" efforts.
But her actions based on her own interests may become a disaster for the Biden administration and even the interests of the United States.
Pelosi will not think about these disasters, just like Edward Luce, a famous columnist in the Financial Times - he is an absolute defender of the American system and interests, and almost never has anything good to say about China - even he He felt that Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan was a "powerful but irresponsible" act, and believed that this move could bring a crisis to the world.
But Biden, as president, is fully aware of the catastrophic consequences of such a move.
Today, even if China is not a military rival of the United States on a global scale, the United States may not have the military capability to defeat China in the Taiwan Strait, and if the two sides really go to war in the Taiwan Strait, China will certainly pay huge costs and sacrifices, because The national rise and revival caused by war losses and sanctions have been delayed for a long time, but the loss of Taiwan from the United States is almost inevitable.
And once the global hegemony of the United States is penetrated by China in Taiwan, it will collapse immediately like an inflated balloon, and will hand over the Western Pacific region, thus destroying the United States in the Indo-Pacific region to the greatest extent the most core interests.
Hu Xijin said in a document that the Chinese mainland probably has to thank Pelosi instead. It was she who created the opportunity for the PLA fighter jets to fly over the island of Taiwan and opened up a new space for the PLA fighter jets to exercise sovereignty over the island of Taiwan.
(file picture)
Therefore, Biden has 10,000 reasons not to be happy to see Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, but if he doesn't play some tricks, I'm afraid even he can't stop Pelosi.
Frankly speaking, China and the United States now have a very thin mutual trust except at the highest level. At other levels of bilateral relations, at the bilateral strategic level, I am afraid that they have already given up any hope for each other.
The Chinese government is of course well aware of the Biden administration's dislike of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, but for China, whether you are Biden or Pelosi are representatives of the interests of the United States, not to mention that you both belong to the same party .
Therefore, no matter how Biden and Pelosi play internally or how they express it externally, for China, as long as Pelosi visits Taiwan, the nature is the same, it is unprecedentedly serious, and it is naked trampling on China. The bottom line is to destroy China's most core interests.
Under the realistic Sino-US relations and the internal and external atmosphere, it is no longer possible for China to accept US-style excuses such as "the government cannot control other departments" and "other congressmen have gone, it makes no difference".
From China's point of view, Pelosi is a repeat offender of "anti-China" and the No. 3 U.S. political figure. As long as you visit Taiwan, the U.S. is denying the "One China Principle" and provoking.
Therefore, Hu Xijin said that if Pelosi visits Taiwan, the PLA fighter jets can accompany them to fly through Taiwan, which absolutely underestimated China's official determination.
If this happens, it is certain that there will be a lot of options at the political, military and technical level between the flight of the military plane passing through Taiwan and the direct fire of the PLA.
And every plan will impress the Biden administration, the Taiwanese government, and Pelosi herself.
Pelosi is the third-largest figure in American politics, and she is a Democrat like Biden. If she visits Taiwan, she will have a completely different domestic experience from the visit of the US House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich to Taiwan in 1997. The temporal and spatial background of politics and Sino-US relations.
For China, if this happens and China only responds with military exercises or diplomatic protests or recalls of ambassadors, then China's tough image of being good and daring in its relations with the US, and the seriousness of the Chinese government's "One China" policy will face severe international challenges.
I hope those Washington politicians don't play with fire so risky on this issue.
To go or not to go?
The self-made dilemma of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan Pompeo said that he will visit Taiwan with Pelosi, and the United States may be in danger of riding a tiger