The German-Russian "Nord Stream I" natural gas pipeline reopened as scheduled after the annual maintenance last Thursday (21st), even if the gas transmission capacity was only 40%, which made Germany and Russia busy preparing for gas storage for winter. European countries breathe a sigh of relief.
However, good times don't last. Four days after Beixi reopened (25th), Russian gas company Gazprom announced that it would reduce its supply to 20% of Beixi's gas transmission capacity on Wednesday (27th).
As soon as the news came out, the price of natural gas in Europe soared another 10%.
Gazprom's rationale for reducing supply was to stop one of its turbines for maintenance.
The German government's response was that "according to the information we have, there is no reason to reduce gas transmission".
The issue of sending turbines for repair and the impact of European and American sanctions on Russia was cited as early as June as a pretext for Gazprom to reduce Nord Stream's supply by 60%.
Since then, Europe has persuaded Canada, which overhauls the turbines, to waive the sanctions in one go, and the turbines are now in Germany.
Gazprom's director stated in June that "our products, our rules", pointing out that Russia's gas supply does not play by the rules of the European game.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia's rules are obviously to tighten political pressure on the European natural gas supply, especially if there is an energy shortage in Europe this winter, which will seriously hinder people's livelihood and economic activities. Fang's game with the EU on the Ukrainian battlefield has a better chance of winning.
At a time when the German economy is unavoidable to decline this year and the Italian government has just collapsed due to disputes over people's livelihood spending, the advantages of this Russia-Europe energy war seem to be in Putin's hands.
However, judging from Putin's "unbroken" natural gas supply to Europe, Russia is also facing the strategic problem of how to play this energy card well.
Among them, the pace of cutting off or reducing the gas supply to Europe is slow or urgent, and it is a balancing game with its own advantages and disadvantages.
Four days after Nord Stream reopened (25th), Russian gas company Gazprom announced on Wednesday (27th) that it would reduce supply to 20% of Nord Stream's gas transmission capacity.
(AP)
Slow and hasty swing
According to figures released by the European Commission last week, LNG supply in the EU increased by 21 billion square meters (bcm) in the first half of the year and pipeline supply by 14 bcm, relative to the 60 bcm Russian gas found by the Commission before the end of the year Alternate source goals, progress is not bad.
At present, real-time data shows that the EU's natural gas storage has risen to nearly 67%, and its gas storage progress does not seem to be seriously affected by the heat wave, and continues to move towards the goal of reaching 80% of gas storage in November this year.
Considering that this year is over halfway, and Russia's total natural gas supply to Europe last year was 155 bcm, if Russia's natural gas supply does not drop significantly, it is indeed possible for Europe to spend this winter relatively smoothly.
In the summer of the following year, the power of Russia's energy brand has been greatly reduced due to the gradual success of European countries' contingency measures such as Germany's acceptance of liquefied natural gas facilities.
The result of "slow gas" will give the EU more time to find alternatives to Gazprom.
This explains why the Russian side has greatly reduced the gas supply of Nord Stream 1 for many months in order to hinder the European Union's gas storage efforts, so that its energy brand can have the greatest impact this winter.
But the urgency of the "quick run out" itself, in turn, could help Europe accelerate its quest to undercut Russia's energy card this year.
Daily Russian gas supplies to the EU from January 2019 to July 2022.
(IEA)
EU's worst plan
From the announcement of the ruble gas purchase, the implementation of the ruble gas purchase, the successive reduction of Russia’s supply to more than ten countries in the European Union, to the Nord Stream No. 1 (the gas transmission capacity of this pipeline accounted for more than one third of Russia’s gas transmission to Europe last year). The gas transmission has dropped sharply. After layers of pressure, the EU's contingency plan for Russia's natural gas supply basically assumes that Russia will completely stop supplying.
When European countries were worried that Nord Stream would not reopen last week, the European Commission announced on the 20th a plan called "Save Gas for a Safe Winter" (Save Gas for a Safe Winter), setting the most dangerous situation. the reduction of natural gas demand standards.
According to the committee's estimates, a normal winter would result in a supply shortfall of about 30 bcm, and a colder winter would result in a 45 bcm shortfall, assuming a total gas blockage this year.
The Commission's proposal presupposes the latter, setting EU countries' respective targets to reduce gas demand by 15% from next month to March next year.
Its implementation method is divided into two steps. The first step is for member states to reduce domestic demand on their own, and the second step is for the commission to implement mandatory rationing to specific non-compliant member states.
This "taking away" of sovereign power from countries by Brussels is often one of the most contentious issues in the EU.
The fact that the European Commission dares to propose such a plan shows how anxious countries are about the possible interruption of Beixi in their research and evaluation.
The technocratic Prime Minister Mario Draghi officially resigned last Thursday amid a battle of party politics in the grand coalition government, leaving the EU without a figure with the prestige and ability to reconcile the differences.
(AP)
Nord Stream Ventilation, the EU is in a North-South Split
But on the following day (July 21), Beixi No. 1 restarted as scheduled with 40% of the supply after the annual maintenance. The EU countries immediately lost the sense of urgency of the energy crisis and began to fall into the usual internal conflict of interests.
This "shared suffering" proposal of reducing natural gas demand by 15% for all countries in the alliance has turned into an opportunity for the "European Pig Five" in the previous European debt crisis to face the northern wealthy country for ten years.
Among them, Teresa Ribera, the minister in charge of Spain's energy policy, said, "Unlike other countries, from the point of view of energy, the Spanish people do not live beyond their means of income", opposing the possession of the North African gas pipeline Spain, which has liquefied natural gas facilities, has to "share the bitterness" with Germany, which has relied on Gazprom for many years.
Rivera's remarks are more obviously an irony to Germany and other financial sovereigns accusing southern European countries of "big funnels" during the European debt crisis.
Greece, Cyprus, and Portugal also immediately joined the Spanish camp.
Countries such as Poland, which for years have anticipated a possible disruption of Gazprom, have also raised objections while watching the fire.
In Hungary, which has not dared to be "too pro-Russian" since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, seeing that the EU countries are about to split on the energy issue, they even sent their foreign ministers directly to Moscow to ask for more supplies to the country.
The opposition from the southern European countries immediately attracted German Deputy Chancellor Robert Habeck to criticize them for undermining EU unity.
Denmark, the Netherlands and other northern countries, which are worried about the lack of heating supply in winter, joined the German camp.
On July 26, Spanish Minister of Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera (left) and German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy Robert Habeck immersed themselves in discussions around the special meeting of EU energy ministers.
(AP)
This new rift between North and South Europe started a weekend of diplomatic chaos.
Different countries have made various exemption requests based on their own interests.
The European Commission's proposal has undergone several revisions in just a few days, hoping to reach an agreement before a special meeting of EU energy ministers on Tuesday (26th).
Political news website POLITICO quoted EU diplomatic sources on Thursday (21st) as saying that the committee’s plan did not have enough votes to pass.
However, just as the reopening of Nord Stream 1 last week made some EU countries lose some sense of crisis, Gazprom's decision on Monday to reduce the gas supply of Nord Stream 1 to 20% has once again made countries feel the need to reach a consensus on reducing natural gas demand .
The "breathing" crisis has changed from slow to haste
At present, island countries such as Cyprus, Malta, and Ireland believe that their countries are not fully connected to the EU grid. Even if the demand for natural gas is reduced, it is difficult to transmit the remaining natural gas or power produced from natural gas to other EU countries, so they should not be subject to reduced demand15 % target limit.
Portugal and Spain demand a special demand reduction target, arguing that on the one hand they are less reliant on Russian gas supplies, and on the other hand they do not have enough pipelines to transport the saved gas to the rest of Europe.
France, which is also less reliant on Russian natural gas, believes that the Commission's demand reduction is too high, and believes that France's own plan to reduce energy consumption by 10% over the next two years is sufficient to achieve the same goal.
Greece points out that its natural gas is mostly used for power generation. If the use of natural gas is reduced, it will only be required to import more electricity from other countries in disguise, so it hopes to receive special treatment for the demand reduction target.
Germany, which initially supported the demand-reduction plan, also proposed that countries apply for exemptions for key industries.
On July 20, the European Commission announced a plan called "Save Gas for a Safe Winter", which sets standards for reducing gas demand in the most dangerous situations.
(AP)
Some countries also believe that giving the European Commission an order to impose mandatory demand reductions on specific member states is too rash, arguing that the decision needs to be voted on by the leaders of all member states before it can take effect.
According to a report by Euronews, although some EU diplomats described the bargaining situation of various countries as "a total mess", many EU officials believed that the committee's proposal would not be completely rejected. Some EU officials Point out "We don't have a Plan B".
The POLITICO report also quoted an EU diplomat who said after the Nord Stream 1 gasped again on Monday night that there was "generally cautious optimism in the negotiating field that an agreement can be reached tomorrow"; another diplomat pointed out that most countries Also knows the importance of showing EU solidarity in the face of the Russian threat.
It can be said that Gazprom's rapid progress in reducing the gas supply from Beixi less than a week after the restart of the pipeline seems to have once again reminded all countries of the importance of EU solidarity. Like the impact of the new crown epidemic, EU countries can quickly hand over their energy policies to the EU for central coordination. .
Putin, who holds the lifeline of Europe's natural gas supply, of course has a big energy player at the moment.
However, it is not easy to find a balance between "slow cut" and "quick cut" that can maximize the effectiveness of the hand.
After the "Beijing Horror", Russia will significantly expand its natural gas exports to China. European natural gas futures soar by 10%. Russia's "stopped" Nord Stream pipeline gas transmission has been reduced to one-fifth. 20% European debt crisis 2.0 makes a comeback? Is there a transition worry |