To go or not to go? The homemade dilemma of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Recently, there has been a lot of news that Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, plans to visit Taiwan next month.

Although neither the White House nor Pelosi has officially confirmed this plan since the Financial Times first broke the news last Monday (July 19), the Chinese and American media have been discussing this plan, and Chinese officials have confirmed that Pelosi has Losi's possible visit to Taiwan "sent a more severe warning," Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, tweeted a "PLA escort flying" warning in English, and Pelosi's own reference to "the plane was shot down." Maybe, etc., are generally seen in Western media reports.

In such a tense verbal confrontation, to go or not to go has become a dilemma.

Western media reported that China has privately issued a more severe warning to the United States after the news of Pelosi's planned visit to Taiwan came to light.

Some analysts pointed out that it may include military operations that hinder the landing of Pelosi's US military aircraft.

These messages were hyped up after US President Joe Biden pointed out that the military believed that Pei Hexi's visit to Taiwan was "not a good idea".

This kind of development was probably unexpected by the US side.

In discussions about Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan, the 1997 visit by Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich is often seen as a comparable precedent.

However, in reality, the two are not much comparable.

On the one hand, the relationship between China and the United States 25 years ago was very different from today. We must remember that China did not even join the World Trade Organization (WTO) back then. Today, the relationship between China and the United States is military, economic, and diplomatic. The relative strength can not be compared with that of the past.

On the other hand, when Gingrich visited mainland China first and then Taiwan, the background pattern was the missile crisis in the Taiwan Strait, which is different from today's "stop visit to Taiwan" during Pelosi's consecutive visits to Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

Pelosi's "historical reference" may be the 2020 visit to Taiwan by the Trump administration's Health Secretary Alex Azar and Deputy Secretary of State Keith Krach.

At that time, the response of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense was that "whether it is to use Taiwan to control China or rely on foreigners to respect itself, it is all wishful thinking, destined to be a dead end, and those who play with fire will set themselves on fire."

In Pelosi's eyes, these responses were "easy and ordinary."

US Health Secretary Alex Azar led a delegation to Taiwan on August 9, 2020, and met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on the morning of the 10th.

(file picture)

In April of this year, Pelosi once reported that she planned to visit Taiwan. Although the final trip fell through because she was infected with the new crown pneumonia, judging from the public information at that time, there was no possible threat of military action that was widely reported as today.

Moreover, in the eyes of American politicians, although Pelosi is only ranked after the vice president in the presidential succession sequence, her power comes from voters in California's 12th congressional district, as well as the support of the majority of members of the House of Representatives, and the White House She has a cooperative relationship with allies of the same party, but no affiliation, so her diplomatic activities can only be regarded as the behavior of Congress in the end, and it does not represent Biden's attitude.

From this perspective, Pelosi may think that her "drop-in visit to Taiwan" is even less provocative than that of senior White House officials such as Azar.

But in any case, when the US media is widely reporting on China's threat of military action against Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan, "going or not going" has turned into a dilemma.

As Biden is planning a phone call with Xi Jinping this week, if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan, the call may fall through, making Biden, who has repeatedly mentioned calling with Xi, once again become a "dignified U.S. president who was not answered." ".

After Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian confirmed on the 25th that China's warning has been "severe" than before, if Pelosi still insists on the itinerary, China's response will inevitably be more severe than when Azar and others visited Taiwan. It will not be as exciting as "shooting down a military aircraft", but symbolic escalation operations such as accompanying military aircraft and flying over Taiwan Island cannot be ruled out.

In the face of such escalating actions, Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen government and Washington, D.C., have to face another dilemma: should they continue to respond with a "war of words" or should they respond with practical actions?

The former is a sign of cowardice; the latter may bring costs that the US and Taiwan are unwilling to pay, and consequences that neither of them are willing to face-this may be precisely what the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan (Jake Sullivan) rumored to be against Pelosi's visit. A big consideration for the platform.

Biden, who was working from home due to infection with the new crown, said on the 25th that he still expected to have a phone call with Xi Jinping this week.

(AP)

However, if Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan has been heatedly discussed in the international media for more than a week, Pelosi publicly stated that he would not visit Taiwan, skip Taiwan in a low-key manner to continue his Asian tour, or even "infected" again or for other reasons The cancellation of the trip will constitute a symbol of the Biden administration's show of weakness towards China. It shows that the United States does not dare to support the current Taiwan government even at the risk of a little bit of mischief. It will also be regarded as a threat by Beijing in the Western media Diplomatic victory.

Even if American voters don't care much about foreign affairs, canceling trips is definitely a losing point for Republicans to use to attack Democrats.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has successfully lost weight after leaving office and may challenge the 2024 presidential election, has half-jokingly said on Twitter that he will visit Taiwan with Pelosi.

Gingrich, the protagonist who visited Taiwan 25 years ago, made a statement on "Fox News" on Monday (25th), criticizing the Democratic Party for creating "chaos", saying that until now, Pelosi "must go." "She can't let the Chinese communist dictator think it can bully the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, and honestly, she should tell the Pentagon and the State Department to shut up."

Republican Senator Ben Sasse also asked Pelosi to visit Taiwan on the same day, saying that the Biden administration must prove to Xi that "the Chinese Communist Party can't do anything insane to (Pelosi's visit to Taiwan)."

It is never new for the US authorities to use the Taiwan issue as a pawn in the diplomatic confrontation between China and the US.

It is not news that Biden has pushed strategic ambiguity closer to the TV station since he took office.

Pelosi's visit is unlikely to bring about any actual change in the general situation between China, the United States and Taiwan. It can only be her personal diplomatic performance.

However, under the "severe" warning from the Chinese side, the 82-year-old Pelosi's "arbitrary" move this time has turned into a dilemma for US diplomacy towards China.

U.S. media: Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is undecided. If it happens, it will be a few days after Xibai's call. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan Zhao Lijian has "sternly warned Washington" that Pelosi's provocative visit to Taiwan will not Disrupting China's pace Pompeo is willing to visit Taiwan with Pelosi: China bans entry, Taiwan does not have time to criticize: visit together